Preprints
There are 7480 Preprints listed.
Probabilistic assessment of tropical cyclone recovery burden across US Atlantic and Gulf Coast counties
Published: 2026-08-27
Subjects: Climate, Other Earth Sciences
Tropical cyclones cause widespread damage to housing and infrastructure, and recovery is often slow and uneven. Climate risk assessments quantify the likelihood and direct impacts of extreme events, but post-disaster recovery remains largely absent from these models, limiting our ability to assess long-term resilience. We therefore integrate simplified recovery modeling into probabilistic [...]
Maternal and neonatal vulnerability in a flood-prone area: a mixed-methods study in Agbétiko canton, Togo
Published: 2026-08-27
Subjects: Public Health
Flooding is increasingly recognised as a determinant of maternal and neonatal health in low-resource settings, yet the mechanisms by which it disrupts access to obstetric care remain poorly documented in West Africa. This mixed-methods study examined whether the flood season constitutes a period of heightened vulnerability for obstetric care access in the rural canton of Agbétiko, Togo. A [...]
Physics-informed LSTMs improve streamflow prediction when storage–discharge dynamics are temporally resolved
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Engineering
Flood prediction at sub-daily resolution requires models that are accurate and physically plausible beyond observed conditions. We augment a per-basin Long Short-Term Memory network with a linear reservoir constraint (Q = KS), embedding storage-discharge dynamics as a soft physics loss, and evaluate it in hourly and daily streamflow-prediction experiments across New Zealand and Great Britain. At [...]
Multi-Scale Pixel and Slope-Unit Landslide Susceptibility Mapping with Applicability-Domain Validation: Evidence from the Karnali Highway Corridor, Western Nepal
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Engineering
Landslides along Himalayan Road corridors cause repeated loss of life and prolonged disruption of access, yet susceptibility products for these settings rarely report how far their predictions can be trusted away from the training data. This study maps landslide susceptibility for the Karnali Highway (NH 58) corridor in western Nepal (about 2,155 km2) and pairs the map with an explicit [...]
Desert pavements stabilise arid vegetation patterns
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Desert Ecology, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology
Some vegetation patterns have aridity-dependent morphology. On low-angle arid hillslopes, vegetation organises into bands which follow topographic contours. Terraces emerge with these bands due to vegetation’s drag on sediment-laden runoff, creating a topographic signature of life diagnostic of precipitation rate. Another widespread feature of arid environments is desert pavement, surficial [...]
Data Test of a Hydro-Kinematic State Graph for Landslide Forecasting
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Statistics and Probability
A graph model can make landslide-monitoring relationships explicit, but a graph is not automatically more informative than a well-regularized time-series model. This study tests that distinction on the publicly released Lamosano landslide record from northeastern Italy. The processed dataset contains 161 observations of 11-day horizontal InSAR differential displacement and rainfall from 10 April [...]
RainCheck Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Gridded Precipitation Dataset Performance at Continental Scale
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Gridded rainfall products are indispensable for water resource management, agricultural monitoring, and disaster risk reduction across Africa, yet no systematic synthesis of their performance has been conducted. We present RainCheck Africa: a PRISMA-compliant systematic review and meta-analysis of 72 peer-reviewed studies published between 2015 and 2025 evaluating satellite, reanalysis, and [...]
Numerical modeling and hazard analysis of Kuwait dust storm events using WRF Chemistry model
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Dust storms have a negative impact on socio-economic events in Kuwait, including traffic accidents, seaport closures, airport shutdowns, and flight delays, and agriculture degradation. From the diurnal analysis of weather parameters, it was noticed that dust storms were more severe from noon to late evening hours and gradually slowed down during the night hours. Sometimes, these strong dust [...]
What can satellite embedding fields tell us about shallow coral-reef habitats? A decodability survey of AlphaEarth over the Great Barrier Reef
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Annual satellite embedding fields compress a year of multi-sensor observation into a 64-dimensional vector per 10 m pixel, globally; whether they retain ecologically meaningful information about the submerged reef benthos is untested. We conducted a registered decodability survey of the AlphaEarth Foundations embedding over shallow (< 10 m) Great Barrier Reef habitats: every candidate output [...]
ALPAKAS: Alpine hydrographs and catchment attributes for karst springs
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology
Approximately 40 % of the European Alps consist of karstifiable rock. Due to their distinct recharge, storage, and discharge properties, karst aquifers are key components of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the Alpine region. However, large-sample datasets enabling comparative and data-driven analyses of karst spring discharge are currently lacking. Here, we present ALPAKAS (ALPine [...]
Silicate Weathering Dynamics in the Kasaï Basin and Implications for Enhanced Rock Weathering Applications in the Tropics
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Silicate weathering is one of the ultimate geologic sinks of atmospheric CO2. Enhanced rock weathering (ERW), aiming at accelerating this natural process to mitigate anthropogenic warming, has received significant attention due to high projected CO2 removal potential and possible agricultural co-benefits applications in the tropics. Yet, the natural baseline of chemical weathering in low-relief, [...]
Linking Atmospheric Transport Resistance to Extreme Snowfall Risk Using Non-Stationary Extreme Value Models
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study develops a hybrid physical--statistical framework for evaluating extreme snowfall risk along the Sea of Japan coast by integrating causal-network analysis, Dijkstra-based atmospheric transport physics, and non-stationary extreme value theory. Using a 135-year record (1889--2024) of annual maximum snow-depth anomalies from 23 meteorological stations, we first quantify atmospheric [...]
Seasonal Estimates of Instream Nitrogen & Phosphorus Loads from New England Watersheds Discharging to Long Island Sound, 2000 through 2020
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonally dynamic estimates of total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Long Island Sound from New England watersheds are estimated by use of seasonally dynamic SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) models. These models are part of the larger Long Island Sound Study (LISS) a coordinated effort by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the States [...]
Observed warming is shrinking favourable daylight windows for outdoor recreation: evidence from sports facilities across France
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Climate, Nature and Society Relations
Observed warming is changing not only the severity of heat exposure during outdoor recreation, but also the time of day when thermally favourable conditions remain available. We quantify this emerging temporal constraint across metropolitan France from 1991 to 2025 by combining hourly ERA5-Land meteorology, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), solar geometry and the national Data ES inventory of [...]
Early warning signals of tipping points: A deep learning approach to direction and timing
Published: 2026-08-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The crossing of climate tipping points poses serious risk to life on Earth due to the impacts they cause, and their irreversibility. These systems generally exhibit critical slowing down on their approach to tipping point, or bifurcation, which can be detected by looking for changes in statistical properties of a time series from the system, such as an increasing lag-1 autocorrelation or [...]