Preprints
There are 7877 Preprints listed.
A 400 Myr subduction memory in the mid-ocean ridge source
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The upper mantle sampled by mid-ocean ridges carries the volatile imprint of past subduction, but the global distribution of hydration through time and how long that imprint survives mixing and melt extraction are poorly known. We investigate the history of mantle hydration by calculating where and when hydration occurred using a plate reconstruction model of subducted water over the past 410 [...]
A retrodictive theory of the origin of the Moon: a secondary circumterrestrial disk redistributed by the retrograde flyby of a rocky planet
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Sciences, The Sun and the Solar System
The Moon is a datum, and the question is retrodictive: which physical pathways lead to it without a giant impact? The pathway examined starts from a young, hot proto-Earth, soft but never liquid, flattened and inflated by a 6 h rotation, surrounded by a disk of material that has not yet formed a satellite. A second rocky planet, planet B, passes close to the Earth against its rotation, without [...]
Mantle, lithospheric and crustal controls on large igneous province magmatism: petrogenesis of the Antrim Lava Group, North Atlantic Igneous Province
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Volcanology
Continental large igneous province (LIP) volcanism is the result of long-lived interactions between mantle plumes, lithospheric topography, ascending melts, and crustal lithologies. Disentangling the competing effects of such factors is required to understand the petrogenesis of LIP magmas and ultimately the controls on their geochemical and isotopic diversity and on ore-forming processes. The [...]
A Spatiotemporal Dataset of Urban Water Distribution Schedules
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Water Resource Management
Urban water supply in several rapidly growing cities in Latin America is managed through intermittent distribution schedules rather than continuous service, often in response to drought or water scarcity conditions. However, these practices are unevenly documented, and publicly available information is largely limited to cities where water authorities disclose distribution schedules. As a result, [...]
Random-split validation overstates the skill of machine-learning models of global coral bleaching severity
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Marine Biology, Oceanography, Statistical Methodology
Global compilations of coral bleaching surveys are increasingly used to train machine-learning models of bleaching severity, but such models are often evaluated with random train–test splits that ignore duplicated records, spatial dependence and differences among contributing survey programmes. We re-examined an earlier analysis of the Global Coral Bleaching Database (BCO-DMO dataset 773466) that [...]
Comment on Golkar and de Oliveira (2026): Missing eddy covariance observations undermine reported OpenET biases
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In a recent study published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Golkar and de Oliveira (2026) reported systematic overestimation of evapotranspiration (ET) by OpenET across US climate zones and substantial improvements through machine learning bias correction. Here, we identify substantial inconsistencies in their eddy covariance (EC) reference data that challenge these conclusions. We first [...]
Electrification can trigger rapid growth in peak demand uncertainty
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering
Electrification of space heating shifts weather-sensitive energy use onto power systems, driving peak electricity demand and its uncertainty. We quantify uncertainty in residential and commercial peak electricity demand across the contiguous United States by generating 256,200 county-level, hourly demand simulations across 14 heat pump penetration levels and 100 climate trajectories. penetrations [...]
Fear without a dose-response: real-time crowdsourced psychometrics show a moderate earthquake’s psychological footprint is decoupled from shaking intensity in an anticipation-primed megacity
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Fear shapes how populations respond to earthquakes, yet it is almost always measured retrospectively, once it cannot be separated from the damage. On 23 April 2025 a MW 6.2 earthquake shook Istanbul – a megacity that has anticipated a major rupture for 25 years – at ground motions below design level, causing one death and light damage. Using a validated earthquake-fear instrument delivered in [...]
Robust clustering of variable-duration seismic waveforms using an incremental dynamic time warping framework
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Different geophysical processes generate characteristic seismic waveforms. Identifying similar waveforms therefore helps to distinguish between different source mechanisms and to monitor seismic activity in settings ranging from volcanoes and glaciers to urban environments. In many applications, however, the seismic event types are unknown and no labelled training data is available. Then, [...]
Year-Wise Refitted Spatiotemporal Landslide Susceptibility Forecasting Driven by IMD Rainfall and SMAP Soil Moisture, Wayanad, India
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering
Landslides in hilly regions threaten life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Landslide susceptibility is inherently transient, yet conventional analysis produces time-invariant zoning and evaluates it by random partitioning of a temporally structured inventory, which permits later events to inform predictions for earlier ones. This study develops a year-wise refitted framework for the Wayanad [...]
MCR-GeoChem: Aharmonized, quality-flagged open compilation of whole-rock and mineral geochemistry for the 1.1 Ga Midcontinent Rift in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Education, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Higher Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Nickel, copper, cobalt, and the platinum-group metals are all on the final 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals, and the 1.1-billion-year-old Midcontinent Rift around Lake Superior hosts some of the largest domestic resources of them. The rock chemistry needed to study these systems is public but fragmented: it is spread across the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Geochemical Database, [...]
Tail Skill and Ensemble-Configuration Sensitivity in Six-Hour Precipitation Postprocessing
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Meteorology
Statistical postprocessing supports probabilistic precipitation forecasting. Comparing methods requires separating forecast performance from the effects of case selection, ensemble configuration, and scoring convention. We develop a paired diagnostic workflow that separates observation conditioning from aggregation, decomposes model and raw-ensemble responses to member reduction, and examines [...]
Municipal exposure to sea-level-rise inundation in Connecticut: a reproducible screening analysis of NOAA inundation-extent data and its sensitivity to methodological choices
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Geographic Information Sciences, Oceanography, Physical and Environmental Geography
Municipal tabulations of sea-level-rise exposure are widely used in coastal planning, but they are sensitive to processing choices that are rarely reported. We tabulated NOAA Office for Coastal Management ocean-connected inundation-extent rasters for Connecticut (0.5–10 ft above mean higher high water, MHHW; ~3 m resolution from 2023 statewide lidar) for all 169 municipalities, using 2020 Census [...]
Robust warming rates, marginal evidence of acceleration and unstable extrapolation: a reproducible reanalysis of statistical trend models for the Berkeley Earth global temperature record
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Statistical Models
Simple trend fits to the global temperature record are widely used to summarise warming, but their uncertainty, their evidence for acceleration and their predictive value are often overstated. We re-analysed an earlier linear and quadratic analysis of the Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean record (1850–2024) that reported in-sample R² values of 0.74 and 0.90 and a post-1970 warming rate of 0.194 °C per [...]
Stabilizing seismic source inversion by accounting for P-wave picking uncertainty: A waveform-shift covariance approach
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In seismic source inversion using teleseismic P waves, P-wave arrival times are picked from observed waveforms and used to adjust their timing relative to the predicted arrivals. However, uncertainty in the picked arrival times remains after this correction. Picking errors shift the entire waveform and produce temporally correlated waveform errors. If these errors are not properly accounted for, [...]