Preprints
There are 7209 Preprints listed.
Field-scale soil moisture over Hungary under non-stationary drought transfer: a unified account across surface, region, and depth
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Soil Science
Three questions decide whether a satellite-driven soil-moisture estimator is fit for operational drought monitoring over a heterogeneous country: how accurately can the surface layer be recovered, whether the controlling processes differ across the landscape, and how far the surface signal reaches into the profile that actually matters for plants and recharge. The program began with a national [...]
Multi-scale measurements and temporally resolved modeling of methane emissions at natural gas distribution stations
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oil, Gas, and Energy
Methane (CH4) emissions from natural gas distribution stations are not well characterized by measurements, contributing to uncertainty in urban emissions inventories and mitigation strategies. We conducted a multi-scale, multi-temporal study of four distribution stations in Calgary, Alberta, combining component- and facility-level measurements with modeling to quantify, attribute, and compare [...]
A multi-indicator framework for assessing the likelihood of ENSO impacts across southern Africa
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of seasonal predictability for Southern Africa, yet operational guidance rarely conveys which agriculturally relevant variables it can skillfully predict, or where ENSO impacts are most likely. We present an operational analysis framework that converts an ENSO state, classified by phase and strength, into gridded, analogue-composite [...]
Earth Science Education for Community Preparedness: Place-Based Approaches to Climate, Water, and Natural Hazards in K-12 Schools
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Science and Mathematics Education
This manuscript presents a K-12 Earth science education framework that connects place-based geoscience learning with community preparedness. Earth science education is positioned as a practical pathway for helping students understand weather, climate, water systems, landforms, natural hazards, and human interactions with Earth systems. Drawing on scholarship and guidance from geoscience [...]
Geometrical Assessment of Climate Models in the Drake Passage Using Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Drake Passage is a narrow oceanic bottleneck that also acts as a geographic constriction. Here, both2 the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Southern Westerly Winds are forced through a topographic gap3 between the Andes and the Antarctic Peninsula, reducing the system’s effective degrees of freedom. This4 study applies Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA) to three surface [...]
A Bayesian Inversion for the Generation of Felsic Archean Crust
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology
Archean continental crust is compositionally distinct from post-Archean continental crust; its felsic components predominantly comprise the tonalite, trondhjemite, and granodiorite suite, while its mafic components record evidence of secular mantle cooling. Although the geochemistry of these rocks have been well characterized, the production of Archean felsic magmas remains contested because the [...]
Ground Motion Model Incorporating Azimuthal Dependence on Topographic Effects in Japan
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Engineering
Conventional topographic terms in ground motion models (GMMs) typically characterize topographic effects using site-specific parameters such as relative elevation, curvature, or slope. This study demonstrates that topographic response is influenced by source-to-site geometry, specifically the incidence direction with respect to the slope aspect. Utilizing 15,189 records from 641 Kiban–Kyoshin [...]
Clay Characterization of Tiller Flotten Quick Clay
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Mineral Physics, Other Earth Sciences, Soil Science
In this study, we investigate the mineralogical and physicochemical properties of the Tiller–Flotten quick clay formation in Trondheim, Norway. The objective is to enhance our understanding of particle interactions within this quick clay system, thereby contributing to the development of more environmentally friendly stabilization strategies. A comprehensive suite of analytical techniques was [...]
FloodOps Twin: A Role-Based Spatial Intelligence Digital Twin for Reducing Cognitive Overload in Urban Flood Emergency Operations
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Engineering
Rapid-onset urban flooding generates significant operational challenges for Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs), where decision-makers must interpret large volumes of heterogeneous hydrological, infrastructural, and transportation data under severe time constraints. Existing flood dashboards frequently rely on centralized visualization paradigms that expose all users to the same high-density [...]
Deep learning methods for the simulation and optimization of shallow geothermal energy systems
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computational Engineering, Geology, Natural Resources Management and Policy
Shallow geothermal energy (SGE) systems are crucial for decarbonizing the heating and cooling sector. Their planning, design and operation, however, rely on the simulation of heat transport in the subsurface, a task that is computationally demanding and particularly prohibitive for multi-query applications such as sensitivity analysis and optimization. Deep learning (DL) has recently emerged as a [...]
Increasing lithium mining could threaten endemic species in biodiversity hotspots
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Biodiversity, Environmental Sciences, Sustainability
Electric vehicles (EVs) are being rapidly deployed as a technological solution to the climate crisis. However, mineral extraction to supply EV battery production can cause serious environmental damage, threatening ecosystems and biodiversity from local to global scales. Lithium, a key EV battery component, is experiencing an enormous mining boom, which could drive species population declines and [...]
Data-Driven Extraction of Spatiotemporal Causal Networks of Extreme Snowfall Based on Long-Term Observations in the Japanese Archipelago
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and long-term trends of extreme weather events is crucial for climate risk assessment. However, extracting causal network structures and underlying trends from observational data remains challenging due to large-scale common influences, spurious correlations, and historical missing values. In this study, we propose a generalized data-driven framework for [...]
Modeling Flood Risk Communication and Evacuation Dynamics Using an Agent-Based Framework: A Cedar Rapids, Iowa Case Study
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Engineering
The benefits of effective flood-risk communication in urban river basins are reliant upon the timing of warnings with respect to flood evolution and challenges encountered by vulnerable populations. However, these benefits can reduce losses substantially. This study presents a geospatial agent-based model of flood evacuation for Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The model accounts for stage-specific flood [...]
A State-dependent Error Covariance Model of Surface Atmospheric Forcings over the Arctic Sea Ice
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
This paper presents a state-dependent error covariance model of surface atmospheric forcings over Arctic sea ice for constraining atmospheric influences on short-range sea ice forecast errors. Atmospheric influences are argued to be a dominant source of sea ice forecast errors at shorter lead times and thus need to be properly accounted for in generating ensemble sea ice forecasts relevant for [...]
Increased North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Wake of a "Super" El Niño Event
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is among the most influential modes of climate variability on Earth, dramatically reshaping global weather patterns. It is therefore a key driver of regional extremes and has been recognized as a key risk predictor for a wide range of natural hazards, from drought and wildfire to extreme rainfall and flooding. Considerable attention has been paid to the [...]