Preprints
There are 7604 Preprints listed.
From Equations to Geospatial Foundation models. What comes next for forest prediction?
Published: 2026-09-10
Subjects: Life Sciences
Predicting forest attributes and dynamics has long been a central objective of forestry, yet robust and transferable prediction remains challenging. Forest ecosystems are intrinsically heterogeneous, only partially observable, and shaped by interacting processes operating across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Over the past decades, predictive modelling has expanded across methodological [...]
The explosive engine of the 2022 Hunga submarine eruption
Published: 2026-09-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
The 2022 submarine eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, was among the largest volcanic eruptions in the modern era, yet the processes controlling its explosive sequence remain poorly understood. Here we present the first detailed insight into the internal mechanics of an explosive cycle from teleseismic waveforms. Four eruptive episodes repeat an implosion-explosion cycle, separated by a 3-minute [...]
Formation, redistribution, and stabilization of framboidal pyrite in shallowly buried deep-sea sediments
Published: 2026-09-10
Subjects: Sedimentology
Framboidal pyrite is widespread in anoxic marine sediments, but the processes that control the redistribution and preservation of pyrite aggregates after their formation remain poorly constrained. Here, I examine the microfabric and spatial organization of framboidal pyrite in shallowly buried deep-sea sediments from the Sagami Trough and the Sea of Japan using complementary freeze-dried and [...]
Ocean warming and acidification alter larval development and swimming behavior in the Atlantic sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus
Published: 2026-09-10
Subjects: Animal Sciences, Biology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Marine Biology
Ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA) are expected to have wide-ranging consequences for populations in marine systems caused by organism-level responses at a range of life history stages, including early larval stages. The Atlantic sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus, is an economically important bivalve species that may be vulnerable to ocean change, but larval responses remain [...]
Kaya-guided hybrid deep learning for leave-country-out estimation of national CO2 emissions: a 112-country benchmark with country-clustered inference, conformal uncertainty, and explainable AI
Published: 2026-09-09
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Reliable national CO2 inventories underpin the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency 1national emissions modelling as leave-country-out (LOCO) estimation: predicting a country’s per-capita CO2 from eight-year trajectories of energy and socioeconomic covariates, with no access to its own emission history. Using Global Carbon Budget and Energy Institute data harmonized by Our World in Data, we [...]
Calibrated detection limits in routine Sentinel-1 products 50.6 hours before the Langtang Lirung rock–ice avalanche, Nepal
Published: 2026-09-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology
On 26 August 2026 a rock–ice avalanche detached from Langtang Lirung, Nepal, and released a debris flood that crossed the Nepal–China border. Deformation preceding the failure has since been reported from a multi-month Sentinel-1 stack, and pre-event indications have been identified in commercial optical imagery. Both analyses began from a known failure location. This paper asks a different [...]
Reactive halogens drive rapid mercury oxidation in hot volcanic emission-plumes
Published: 2026-09-09
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Volcanoes release mercury (Hg) alongside gases and particles through continuous passive degassing and by explosive and effusive eruptions. The global dispersion and environmental impact depend on volcanic Hg oxidation state, which remains poorly constrained: thermochemical calculations of magmatic gas composition and crater-rim sampling indicate Hg to be predominantly in the reduced Hg0 form that [...]
Predictive Modeling of Hydrodynamic Dispersion for High-Pressure Atomized Crude Oil Plumes During Tidal Phase-Lag Loops in Santa Barbara Estuaries, Nigeria
Published: 2026-09-09
Subjects: Engineering
This study models the multi-phase hydrodynamic atomization, near-surface jet shattering, and transient longitudinal advection-diffusion transport of high-pressure crude oil plumes within a tidally driven tropical estuary. It maps the 38-day uncontained wellhead failure at the Santa Barbara South Well-1 (OML 29) in Opu-Nembe, Bayelsa State, Nigeria, to quantify sub-surface contaminant migration [...]
Fabric memory during repeated reversal shear in clay-rich materials: An experimental study using SEM, SP-µCT, and AMS
Published: 2026-09-09
Subjects: Tectonics and Structure
Fine-grained shear zones occur in both tectonic faults and gravitational landslides, making their origin difficult to determine from individual microstructural features alone. A potentially useful distinction is provided by deformation history: tectonic faults commonly experience repeated earthquake cycles in which the sense and magnitude of deformation may change, whereas landslide slip zones [...]
A transparent constrained stochastic framework for urban expansion forecasting and future service-network screening: Cape Town demonstration using annual building evidence, empirical land constraints, spatial hindcasting, and multi-horizon ensembles
Published: 2026-09-09
Subjects: Other Earth Sciences
Spatial forecasts of urban expansion require separate, auditable answers to two questions: how much built area is assumed to appear, and where it is allocated. This study presents a constrained stochastic workflow and demonstrates it for metropolitan Cape Town, South Africa. Annual Open Buildings Temporal building-presence surfaces for 2016–2023 are harmonised to a 10 m grid and cleaned with a [...]
Revisiting the felsőbányaite-basaluminite question : nomenclatural synonymy and unresolved structural issues
Published: 2026-09-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Mineral Physics, Soil Science
Felsőbányaite (1853) and basaluminite (1948) share the formula Al4(SO4)(OH)10·4H2O, and were shown to be crystallographically identical in 1997, leading the IMA to discredit basaluminite in 2006 in favor of the older name. This nomenclatural choice is not an issue. Instead, this opinion article explores a more focused contemporary question: is the poorly crystalline material that geochemists [...]
Beyond Hard-to-Abate: Matching Models to Transition Bottlenecks
Published: 2026-09-08
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Computational Engineering, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oil, Gas, and Energy
In energy-intensive industry, the difficulty of decarbonising is not a uniform property of the emissions involved but a property of the pathway, conditional on identifiable bottlenecks at three interlocking levels. At the process level, heterogeneous products and coupled processes multiply the low-carbon option space. At the firm level, financing premiums and coordination failures across the [...]
From Heat Summation to Climate Adaptation: Lessons from 75 Years of the Winkler Index for Agroclimatic Metric Design
Published: 2026-09-08
Subjects: Life Sciences
Agroclimatic indices are foundational tools for matching crop cultivars to suitable climates, yet the accelerating pace of climate change is exposing the limits of indices built on mean conditions. The Winkler Index (WI) is a regional categorization system based on heat summation informed by wines made from grapes throughout California in the 1940s to 1960s, and it remains one of the most widely [...]
How much of a machine-learning earthquake catalogue can an expert verify?
Published: 2026-09-08
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Machine-learning systems are becoming the instruments that generate the primary data of a scientific field, and what such a system asserts is not the same as what an expert would endorse. Earthquake detection is one of the few settings where the difference can be measured, because a detection can be checked blind against the waveforms that produced it. Four seismologists returned 4,800 blind [...]
Terrain-Dependent Generalization Failure in Multimodal Lunar Crater Classification: A Comparative Study Using Optical and Topographic Data
Published: 2026-09-08
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Sciences
Automated lunar crater detection is an important task in planetary mapping, geological analysis, and future lunar exploration. Recent studies have demonstrated the potential of combining optical imagery with topographic information; however, the influence of terrain variability on crater classification performance remains insufficiently explored. This study presents a comparative evaluation of [...]