Preprints
There are 7893 Preprints listed.
The Dynamics of Nonlinear Triads of Rossby-Haurwitz and Gravity Shallow Water Waves on the Sphere
Published: 2026-10-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the interplay between nonlinearity and multiple scales is one of the cornerstones of geophysical fluids and climate modelling. Nonlinear interactions between atmospheric waves of disparate scales, from fast inertia-gravity waves to slow planetary-scale Rossby-Haurwitz waves, are central to energy cascades and to low-frequency phenomena. Yet, they remain poorly understood beyond [...]
Previously undetected disturbances are the dominant driver of carbon loss in protected Amazonian forests
Published: 2026-10-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Forest Management, Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Amazonian forests face increasing pressures from human-induced deforestation and degradation, compounded by natural disturbances such as droughts and windthrow events. In response, forest protection policies strengthened and formalised large protected areas and Indigenous lands, now covering 43% of the region. However, clearings and degradation in these protected areas are complex and hard to [...]
Satellite-based Assessment of Continuous and Episodic Flaring Regimes across Major Oil and Gas-producing Basins
Published: 2026-10-22
Subjects: Oil, Gas, and Energy, Remote Sensing
Gas flaring wastes valuable natural gas while emitting large amounts of harmful air pollutants; however, existing flare inventories rarely distinguish the operational behavior across various basins and fuel types, namely oil- and gas-associated flaring.This limits their value for targeted mitigation efforts. Here, we present a satellite-based classification framework for characterizing flaring [...]
From rifting to collision: deep closure of a Wilson cycle during the Archean–Paleoproterozoic transition at the Carajás-Bacajá boundary, Amazonian Craton
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Tectonics and Structure
The Carajás-Bacajá boundary preserves complementary archives of continental rifting, passive-margin development, subduction, collision and post-collisional exhumation across the Archean-Paleoproterozoic transition. We present whole-rock lithogeochemistry, Sm-Nd isotopes, U-Pb zircon geochronology and thermobarometry from the Vila Santa Fé-Rio Preto association, a mafic-felsic granulitic [...]
Decoupling ore formation, ductile fabric and hydrothermal upgrading in the giant Salobo IOCG deposit, Carajás Province, Brazil
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Tectonics and Structure
The Salobo deposit is the largest Cu-Au deposit of the Carajás Mineral Province, northern Brazil, and is hosted by altered volcanosedimentary schists of the Itacaiúnas Supergroup along the Cinzento Lineament. Multiscale structural analysis, mineral chemistry and published geochronology define four structural families: Pre-Dn, Dn, Dn+1 and Dn+2. The Pre-Dn event comprises high-temperature K, K-Fe [...]
A 400 Myr subduction memory in the mid-ocean ridge source
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The upper mantle sampled by mid-ocean ridges carries the volatile imprint of past subduction, but the global distribution of hydration through time and how long that imprint survives mixing and melt extraction are poorly known. We investigate the history of mantle hydration by calculating where and when hydration occurred using a plate reconstruction model of subducted water over the past 410 [...]
A retrodictive theory of the origin of the Moon: a secondary circumterrestrial disk redistributed by the retrograde flyby of a rocky planet
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Sciences, The Sun and the Solar System
The Moon is a datum, and the question is retrodictive: which physical pathways lead to it without a giant impact? The pathway examined starts from a young, hot proto-Earth, soft but never liquid, flattened and inflated by a 6 h rotation, surrounded by a disk of material that has not yet formed a satellite. A second rocky planet, planet B, passes close to the Earth against its rotation, without [...]
Mantle, lithospheric and crustal controls on large igneous province magmatism: petrogenesis of the Antrim Lava Group, North Atlantic Igneous Province
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Volcanology
Continental large igneous province (LIP) volcanism is the result of long-lived interactions between mantle plumes, lithospheric topography, ascending melts, and crustal lithologies. Disentangling the competing effects of such factors is required to understand the petrogenesis of LIP magmas and ultimately the controls on their geochemical and isotopic diversity and on ore-forming processes. The [...]
A Spatiotemporal Dataset of Urban Water Distribution Schedules
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Water Resource Management
Urban water supply in several rapidly growing cities in Latin America is managed through intermittent distribution schedules rather than continuous service, often in response to drought or water scarcity conditions. However, these practices are unevenly documented, and publicly available information is largely limited to cities where water authorities disclose distribution schedules. As a result, [...]
Random-split validation overstates the skill of machine-learning models of global coral bleaching severity
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Marine Biology, Oceanography, Statistical Methodology
Global compilations of coral bleaching surveys are increasingly used to train machine-learning models of bleaching severity, but such models are often evaluated with random train–test splits that ignore duplicated records, spatial dependence and differences among contributing survey programmes. We re-examined an earlier analysis of the Global Coral Bleaching Database (BCO-DMO dataset 773466) that [...]
Comment on Golkar and de Oliveira (2026): Missing eddy covariance observations undermine reported OpenET biases
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In a recent study published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Golkar and de Oliveira (2026) reported systematic overestimation of evapotranspiration (ET) by OpenET across US climate zones and substantial improvements through machine learning bias correction. Here, we identify substantial inconsistencies in their eddy covariance (EC) reference data that challenge these conclusions. We first [...]
Electrification can trigger rapid growth in peak demand uncertainty
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering
Electrification of space heating shifts weather-sensitive energy use onto power systems, driving peak electricity demand and its uncertainty. We quantify uncertainty in residential and commercial peak electricity demand across the contiguous United States by generating 256,200 county-level, hourly demand simulations across 14 heat pump penetration levels and 100 climate trajectories. penetrations [...]
Fear without a dose-response: real-time crowdsourced psychometrics show a moderate earthquake’s psychological footprint is decoupled from shaking intensity in an anticipation-primed megacity
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Fear shapes how populations respond to earthquakes, yet it is almost always measured retrospectively, once it cannot be separated from the damage. On 23 April 2025 a MW 6.2 earthquake shook Istanbul – a megacity that has anticipated a major rupture for 25 years – at ground motions below design level, causing one death and light damage. Using a validated earthquake-fear instrument delivered in [...]
Robust clustering of variable-duration seismic waveforms using an incremental dynamic time warping framework
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Different geophysical processes generate characteristic seismic waveforms. Identifying similar waveforms therefore helps to distinguish between different source mechanisms and to monitor seismic activity in settings ranging from volcanoes and glaciers to urban environments. In many applications, however, the seismic event types are unknown and no labelled training data is available. Then, [...]
Year-Wise Refitted Spatiotemporal Landslide Susceptibility Forecasting Driven by IMD Rainfall and SMAP Soil Moisture, Wayanad, India
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering
Landslides in hilly regions threaten life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Landslide susceptibility is inherently transient, yet conventional analysis produces time-invariant zoning and evaluates it by random partitioning of a temporally structured inventory, which permits later events to inform predictions for earlier ones. This study develops a year-wise refitted framework for the Wayanad [...]