Preprints
There are 7232 Preprints listed.
Leakage-audited machine learning versus ETAS for earthquake forecasting in the Sea of Marmara
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Sea of Marmara hosts a seismic gap directly beneath a metropolitan region of some 18 million people, and the 23 April 2025 Mw 6.2 Kumburgaz earthquake renewed attention on whether short-term forecasting can add value there. We report a leakage-audited forecasting experiment built on a strictly causal, homogenized KOERI catalogue (31,329 model-box events, 2003–2026). Motivated by the finding [...]
When does array moveout help borehole phase picking? A leave-one-site-out, confound-free benchmark of array versus per-trace deep learning
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Microseismic monitoring of fluid-injection operations — enhanced geothermal systems, hydraulic fracturing and geological CO2 storage — is central to managing induced seismicity and imaging reservoir processes (Ellsworth 2013; Grigoli et al. 2017), and is increasingly performed on dense borehole and fibre-optic (DAS) arrays (Karrenbach et al. 2019; Lellouch et al. 2019; Lindsey & Martin 2021). [...]
Coupled geophysical and technoeconomic growth constraints on geological carbon storage scaleup with an application to the UK
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering
Geological carbon dioxide storage is central to meeting many national climate change commitments. Yet large-scale deployment remains poorly constrained by both techno-economic limits on how rapidly the technology can scale and physics-based constraints imposed by the behavior of the subsurface. We here develop a modelling framework to identify feasible CO2 storage scaleup trajectories constrained [...]
Seasonal, Interannual and Long-term Sea-level Changes in the Arabian Gulf
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Life Sciences
The present chapter explores the seasonal, interannual, and long-term sea-level changes in the Arabian Gulf. Tides, winds, and density-driven currents are the primary drivers of circulation in the Arabian Gulf. The sea level is relatively high during fall and low during spring, with a maximum during November and a minimum during April. The sea-level variability in the Arabian Gulf is considerably [...]
Pixel-Level Urban Housing-Price Mapping Based on AlphaEarth Foundations: Evidence from 36 Chinese Cities
Published: 2026-07-04
Subjects: Computer Engineering, Computer Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Human Geography, Remote Sensing
This study develops and validates a multi-source modelling framework for continuous, pixel-level urban housing-price mapping using surface embeddings from AlphaEarth Foundations (AEF). Pixel-level labels calibrated against multi-source market data are constructed for 288 city–year samples across 36 Chinese cities (2017–2024), and AEF’s 64-dimensional, 10 m annual surface embeddings are [...]
A hidden component of magnetic storms makes Earth's mantle transition zone look drier than it is
Published: 2026-07-04
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Electromagnetic sounding provides a primary geophysical constraint on water in Earth's mantle transition zone, yet conductivity models disagree by up to an order of magnitude. We identify a source-side systematic invisible to internal consistency checks: omitting the degree-3 zonal (P₃⁰) storm-field component biases transition-zone conductivity by 0.1–0.35 decades, a tenth to a quarter of that [...]
Rapid Estimation of Soil Profile Arsenic Content and Identification of Substitute Indicators Using Random Forest: A Case Study of Nenjiang City, China
Published: 2026-07-04
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Direct measurement of soil arsenic (As) requires complex analytical procedures, motivating the development of predictive methods based on readily measurable indicators. This study systematically analyzed 50 geochemical indicators using 204 soil samples collected from 69 sampling sites across a 0–500 cm depth profile in Nenjiang County, Heilongjiang Province. A random forest (RF) algorithm was [...]
Investigating the Formation Conditions of Evaporitic Chloride, Carbonate, and Sulfate Paragenetic Assemblages on Early Mars
Published: 2026-07-03
Subjects: Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Sciences
Aqueous alteration minerals, such as chlorides, carbonates, and sulfates, have been discovered on the surface of Mars by both orbital and in situ rover observations. Alteration minerals require liquid water for their formation and can place critical constraints on the geochemistry of the aqueous systems in which they are formed. Primary mineralization facilitated by evaporation of weathering [...]
From linguistic evaluation to mechanistic verification: testing LLM-generated farm recommendations
Published: 2026-07-03
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Life Sciences, Biochemistry, Biophysics, and Structural Biology, Biogeochemistry, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Research Methods in Life Sciences, Soil Science, Sustainability
Large language models (LLM) are increasingly used to generate farm-management advice, but their biophysical consequences remain largely unverified. We introduce a process-based verification framework that combines management portfolios generated by ChatGPT and Claude with the process-based model LandscapeDNDC across 11 contrasting agroecosystems. The LLMs produced agronomically plausible [...]
SWMMCanada: An Open-Source Service for Generating Ready-to-Run Urban Drainage Models Across Canada
Published: 2026-07-03
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computational Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Hydrology, Software Engineering
Urban stormwater modelling is often slowed more by data preparation than by the simulation itself, because rainfall, terrain, land cover, soil, and pipe network data usually come from different agencies, formats, projections, and data structures. This software paper presents SWMMCanada, an open source and standardized model building service that makes Canadian urban hydrological modelling easier [...]
Transformer-based Reconstruction of Canopy Profiles from Large-Footprint Waveform LiDAR
Published: 2026-07-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Spaceborne laser scanning (SLS) presents a cost-effective means for frequent, global-scale monitoring of forest ecosystem parameters. Compared to airborne laser scanning (ALS), SLS offers substantially greater spatial coverage and revisit frequency, but at the cost of larger footprints, sparser sampling, and attenuated return signals. These constraints typically result in a loss of fine-scale [...]
East-west Variability of Sea Level in the Red Sea
Published: 2026-07-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The sea level changes and associated physical processes are not explored well compared to other parts of the world. In the present study, the sea level variability in the Red Sea is investigated with the help of more than two and half decades of remote sensing observations from satellite altimetry. Considering the east–west difference in sea level, the study revealed the presence of a persistent [...]
Climate-Induced Risk to Food Security in Two Indian Indigenous Communities: Evaluating Impact and Associations Through Community Perception
Published: 2026-07-03
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Food systems across low- and middle-income countries remain inadequately equipped to anticipate climate-sensitive risks, particularly among indigenous and ecologically dependent populations. While climate change impacts are frequently linked to food security, attention needs to be paid to how communities experience climate stressors in their food systems. Our study examines perceived climate [...]
A Multi-Pathway Contamination Risk Model for Niger Delta Communities: Integrating Hydrocarbon Load, Heavy Metal Exposure, and Vegetation Stress Indices from Heterogeneous Observational Data
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
The Niger Delta is one of the most petroleum-impacted environments in the world, yet spatially explicit contamination risk assessments that integrate multiple exposure pathways remain scarce. This study presents a Composite Risk Score (CRS) model that fuses heavy metal soil and water measurements from nine peer-reviewed studies, total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) data from the 2011 UNEP [...]
Field-scale soil moisture over Hungary under non-stationary drought transfer: a unified account across surface, region, and depth
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Soil Science
Three questions decide whether a satellite-driven soil-moisture estimator is fit for operational drought monitoring over a heterogeneous country: how accurately can the surface layer be recovered, whether the controlling processes differ across the landscape, and how far the surface signal reaches into the profile that actually matters for plants and recharge. The program began with a national [...]