Preprints
There are 7063 Preprints listed.
Colonial Hydrologies and Local Ecologies: An Ethnographic Study of the Beas River Region in Punjab, Pakistan
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Environmental Studies
The disappearance of the Beas River in Pakistan's Punjab, completed by a natural migration of the river's channels between 1750 and 1800, predates colonial hydraulic intervention, the partition of 1947, and the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. Each successive political and infrastructure development has not caused the river to disappear, but has gradually formalized and deepened it, removing any [...]
Ecosystem accounting for social-ecological policy: an applied ecological economics research agenda from Guatemala
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Economy and ecology are inseparable since economic decisions affect the natural systems that sustain them. Conventional economics still treats this dependence as an externality to be corrected through prices, even as ecosystems lose resilience and the economy presses against planetary boundaries. Ecological economics offers a more adequate framework, one that situates the economy within a finite [...]
Climate overshoot and the insurability frontier: peak stress, domestic capacity, and market retreat risk
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Sciences
Climate overshoot can create mid-century peaks in climate stress before end-century temperatures stabilize, but its implications for insurance availability remain poorly understood. We assess subnational insurance market exit risk under overshoot across 1,590 first-order administrative regions in 88 countries, covering 4.54 billion people. Combining ADM1-level multi-hazard climate stress, an [...]
Deciphering the morphology of turbiditic lobe bodies according to hierarchy and system size
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Statistics and Probability
Turbiditic lobe bodies (LBs) are the ultimate deposits of source-to-sink systems. Their geometry and architecture vary with depositional environment (marine vs. lacustrine), hierarchy (lobe elements, lobes, lobe complexes), system size (large vs. small) and topographic confinement. Constraining these variations is useful for characterizing the dispersion of sediments, carbon, nutrients, and [...]
Satellite Embedding: A Review
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellite embeddings have become a practical interface between large-scale Earth observation data and downstream geospatial analysis, yet the liter ature is still organized mainly around foundation models rather than the embeddings they produce. This review reframes the area from an embedding centered perspective. We first define satellite embeddings as reusable latent representations derived [...]
A Bayesian ground-motion model for volcano-tectonic earthquakes in southwest Iceland
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Tectonics and Structure
Volcano-tectonic earthquakes in Iceland and other volcanic regions produce ground motions that differ systematically from those of ordinary shallow crustal tectonic earthquakes. The recent unrest on the Reykjanes Peninsula has provided an exceptional opportunity to quantify these differences, with multiple intense swarms preceding and accompanying eruptive episodes. Building on Hernández-Aguirre [...]
A kinematic rupture generator for ground-motion simulations: Validation and scenarios in South Iceland
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Tectonics and Structure
Physics-based ground-motion simulation can reduce epistemic uncertainty in regions with sparse strong-motion data, but hazard applications require rupture ensembles that are physically plausible, statistically controlled, and computationally efficient. We present a modular kinematic rupture generator for physics-based simulations (PBS) in which final slip, rupture speed ratio (VR/VS), and peak [...]
Improving sub seasonal streamflow prediction for hydrological drought forecasting using machine learning in the Rhine River basin in the Netherlands
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Engineering
Accurate sub seasonal streamflow forecasts are essential for hydrological drought preparedness in large river basins with competing water demands. Traditional process based hydrological models often struggle to represent non linear, non stationary catchment behavior under changing climate and land use conditions. In this study, we develop Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to improve sub [...]
A Randomised Controlled Trial Assessing Infectious Disease Risks from Bathing in Inland Recreational Waters
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Medicine and Health Sciences
Evidence to determine the suitability of water quality standards to prevent illness from recreation exposure in inland waters is limited. We report findings from four Hungarian freshwater study sites included in the Epibathe study, a large randomised controlled trial. A total of 2,368 participants were randomly allocated either to bathe for ten minutes undertaking at least three head [...]
Empirical constraints on the fraction of surface latent heat flux reaching the top of atmosphere as net radiative cooling
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology
The transfer fraction η, defined as the ratio of net cloud radiative effect at the top of atmosphere to surface latent heat flux (η = |CRE_net| / LE), is a fundamental coupling parameter linking surface hydrology to TOA radiation. Despite its relevance to cloud feedback and biophysical forcing, η has not been directly constrained by co-located observations at the spatial scales relevant to [...]
Constraints on magma source conditions from hydraulic fracture models and seismic observations of dyke tip deceleration
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismicity shows that magmatic dykes decelerate as they propagate laterally. Hydraulic fracture theory shows this deceleration relates to the coupling between the source and the dyke. Here, we use hydraulic fracture models to derive scaling laws for the length, width, and shape of dykes driven by three source boundary conditions: constant flux, constant pressure, and a finite volume release. [...]
Late Cretaceous channel flow in Western Arizona: Implications for the ancestral origin of metamorphic core complexes
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The origin of ancestral ’extensional’ shear fabrics in metamorphic core complexes (MCCs) in the Colorado River Extensional Corridor remains a tectonic mystery. Here we show that Late-Cretaceous metamorphic rocks and migmatites in the Harcuvar-Harquahala and Granite Wash Mountains MCCs reached peak metamorphic conditions of ca. 0.75 GPa and 780°C and were extruded towards the SW onto lower grade [...]
The three causal pathways of ENSO teleconnections to High Mountain Asia winter precipitation
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
High Mountain Asia (HMA), spanning from the Hindu Kush to the Tibetan Plateau, encompasses tropical and subtropical regions highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events and associated hazards. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant external climate modes that influence subseasonal to seasonal precipitation over HMA through various dynamical pathways. We hypothesize three [...]
Time domain full waveform inversion with decomposed Gauss-Newton Hessian
Published: 2026-06-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Full waveform inversion (FWI), a nonlinear data fitting approach for parameter estimation, is generally implemented with local optimization methods. The convergence of the iterations can be slow when the steepest descent direction provided by the negative gradient of the data misfit function is not preconditioned by the inverse full Newton Hessian or its linear approximation, namely the [...]
Direct mapping of plantation forest aboveground biomass change with deep learning and SAR-optical fusion
Published: 2026-06-03
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation
Accurately tracking changes in forest aboveground biomass (ΔAGB) is necessary for understanding global carbon dynamics. Traditional approaches estimate ΔAGB indirectly by differencing two independent biomass predictions, compounding uncertainty and reducing accuracy. Here, we develop a Mixture-of-Experts (MOE) machine learning framework that uses multi-sensor fusion of Sentinel-1 C-band SAR, [...]