Preprints
There are 7070 Preprints listed.
Exact solutions for ice flow across the no-slip to free-slip transition
Published: 2026-06-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The downhill flow of a viscous ice stream across a no-slip to free-slip transition remains elusive to exact solutions due to the existence of singularities. Here we replace the point-wise sharp transition by a functional dependency of parametrised horizontal length. Analytical solutions are found for the steady Navier-Stokes flow with Newtonian properties. Our solution remains smooth and [...]
Two decades of kilometer-scale daily PM2.5 from satellite observations and machine learning reveal geographically diverging exposure in Ghana
Published: 2026-06-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major contributor to global burden of disease, yet air quality data remain sparse in many low- and middle-income countries, limiting nationwide monitoring and effective policy development. We address this gap by developing a high-resolution gridded (1 km × 1 km) dataset for daily surface PM2.5 concentrations in Ghana from 2005 to 2025 by training [...]
Beyond Techno-Centered Decarbonization Roadmaps: Designing Demand-Side Pathways for Sustainable Mobility
Published: 2026-06-05
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Decarbonization roadmaps for the automobile sector predominantly rely on supply-side improvements and electrification, yet their ability to deliver the required environmental reductions remains uncertain. This study introduces the Demand-Side Decomposition Analysis framework, which consistently integrates demand-side mitigation into a parametrized life cycle assessment of the automobile value [...]
Ecosystem accounting for social-ecological policy: an applied ecological economics research agenda from Guatemala
Published: 2026-06-05
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Economy and ecology are inseparable since economic decisions affect the natural systems that sustain them. Conventional economics still treats this dependence as an externality to be corrected through prices, even as ecosystems lose resilience and the economy presses against planetary boundaries. Ecological economics offers a more adequate framework, one that situates the economy within a finite [...]
Impacts of short-term weather on communicable enteric infectious diseases in western Europe: A case study of the Republic of Ireland, 2009–2020
Published: 2026-06-05
Subjects: Public Health
The incidence of sporadic enteric infections at temperate latitudes, including much of western Europe, vary seasonally, and as such are forecasted to shift in response to global climate changes. Understanding the associations between weather patterns and infection incidence is crucial to focus future surveillance efforts and minimise disease transmission. Accordingly, the relationship between [...]
Empirical Relationships Between Ground Motion Intensities and JMA Seismic Intensity Scale
Published: 2026-06-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There is a growing appetite for parametric Japanese earthquake insurance products that use Japanese Meteorological Agency seismic intensity, IJMA, triggers. However, most earthquake risk models used to price these contracts do not compute IJMA directly, instead relying on conversions that introduce additional basis risk. Here, we present empirical parameterisations of IJMA as a function of all [...]
Colonial Hydrologies and Local Ecologies: An Ethnographic Study of the Beas River Region in Punjab, Pakistan
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Environmental Studies
The disappearance of the Beas River in Pakistan's Punjab, completed by a natural migration of the river's channels between 1750 and 1800, predates colonial hydraulic intervention, the partition of 1947, and the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. Each successive political and infrastructure development has not caused the river to disappear, but has gradually formalized and deepened it, removing any [...]
Ecosystem accounting for social-ecological policy: an applied ecological economics research agenda from Guatemala
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Economy and ecology are inseparable since economic decisions affect the natural systems that sustain them. Conventional economics still treats this dependence as an externality to be corrected through prices, even as ecosystems lose resilience and the economy presses against planetary boundaries. Ecological economics offers a more adequate framework, one that situates the economy within a finite [...]
Climate overshoot and the insurability frontier: peak stress, domestic capacity, and market retreat risk
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Sciences
Climate overshoot can create mid-century peaks in climate stress before end-century temperatures stabilize, but its implications for insurance availability remain poorly understood. We assess subnational insurance market exit risk under overshoot across 1,590 first-order administrative regions in 88 countries, covering 4.54 billion people. Combining ADM1-level multi-hazard climate stress, an [...]
Deciphering the morphology of turbiditic lobe bodies according to hierarchy and system size
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Statistics and Probability
Turbiditic lobe bodies (LBs) are the ultimate deposits of source-to-sink systems. Their geometry and architecture vary with depositional environment (marine vs. lacustrine), hierarchy (lobe elements, lobes, lobe complexes), system size (large vs. small) and topographic confinement. Constraining these variations is useful for characterizing the dispersion of sediments, carbon, nutrients, and [...]
Satellite Embedding: A Review
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellite embeddings have become a practical interface between large-scale Earth observation data and downstream geospatial analysis, yet the liter ature is still organized mainly around foundation models rather than the embeddings they produce. This review reframes the area from an embedding centered perspective. We first define satellite embeddings as reusable latent representations derived [...]
A Bayesian ground-motion model for volcano-tectonic earthquakes in southwest Iceland
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Tectonics and Structure
Volcano-tectonic earthquakes in Iceland and other volcanic regions produce ground motions that differ systematically from those of ordinary shallow crustal tectonic earthquakes. The recent unrest on the Reykjanes Peninsula has provided an exceptional opportunity to quantify these differences, with multiple intense swarms preceding and accompanying eruptive episodes. Building on Hernández-Aguirre [...]
A kinematic rupture generator for ground-motion simulations: Validation and scenarios in South Iceland
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Tectonics and Structure
Physics-based ground-motion simulation can reduce epistemic uncertainty in regions with sparse strong-motion data, but hazard applications require rupture ensembles that are physically plausible, statistically controlled, and computationally efficient. We present a modular kinematic rupture generator for physics-based simulations (PBS) in which final slip, rupture speed ratio (VR/VS), and peak [...]
Improving sub seasonal streamflow prediction for hydrological drought forecasting using machine learning in the Rhine River basin in the Netherlands
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Engineering
Accurate sub seasonal streamflow forecasts are essential for hydrological drought preparedness in large river basins with competing water demands. Traditional process based hydrological models often struggle to represent non linear, non stationary catchment behavior under changing climate and land use conditions. In this study, we develop Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to improve sub [...]
A Randomised Controlled Trial Assessing Infectious Disease Risks from Bathing in Inland Recreational Waters
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Medicine and Health Sciences
Evidence to determine the suitability of water quality standards to prevent illness from recreation exposure in inland waters is limited. We report findings from four Hungarian freshwater study sites included in the Epibathe study, a large randomised controlled trial. A total of 2,368 participants were randomly allocated either to bathe for ten minutes undertaking at least three head immersions, [...]