Preprints
There are 6324 Preprints listed.
Adapting Caspian Sea ports to climate-induced water level declines: The case of Aktau
Published: 2025-12-19
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
The Caspian Sea is the world's largest inland body of water. It is critical for regional trade through the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which links South-East Asia and China to Europe. Aktau Port in Kazakhstan is strategically important, located on key international transport routes like the TITR. Over the past 30 years, the Caspian Sea’s water levels have dropped from [...]
Regional Characterization of Coal Resources in the U.S. Gulf Coast
Published: 2025-12-19
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There is increasing interest in extracting critical minerals (CM), including rare earth elements (REE), from coals in the United States to address the overreliance on imported REE. The U.S. Gulf Coast and the Williston basins are the two major lignite-bearing basins within the country. Recent REE and CM studies of the lignite in these basins have indicated that the coals may be a viable source [...]
The impact of extreme temperatures on respiratory mortality in Brazil: evaluating regional adaptations to different thermal environments
Published: 2025-12-19
Subjects: Public Health
We conducted a nationwide ecological time-series study to quantify the association between ambient temperature and respiratory mortality across Brazil's diverse climates. Using data from 520 municipalities (population ≥50,000) from 2010 to 2020, we analysed 1,008,157 respiratory deaths (ICD-10 J00–J99) using distributed-lag non-linear models (lags 0–21 days) with quasi-Poisson regression, [...]
Explainable Machine Learning for Wheat Biomass Integrating Sentinel-1/2, PlanetScope and In-Situ Weather Data
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Agriculture, Life Sciences
Global food security faces increasing challenges from climate change, making accurate monitoring of essential crops like wheat (Triticum aestivum) critical. This research introduces an explainable machine learning (ML) framework to estimate and forecast wheat above-ground biomass (AGB) in central Chile across the 2020–2023 growing seasons. The study uses a two-stage approach: first, in-season AGB [...]
Gutenberg-Richter-type earthquake size distributions: maximum likelihood estimation, unbiased estimation, and Bayesian forecasting
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Characterizing earthquake size distributions using the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law is ubiquitous in seismology. According to the GR law, earthquake magnitudes follow an exponential distribution, with a rate parameter commonly represented by the b-value. For many applications, including seismic hazard and risk assessment, estimating the b-value is therefore a common procedure. However, the [...]
A review on ice-cores from temperate glaciers: processes, signal preservation, and paleoclimatic significance
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Temperate glaciers, characterized by ice at the pressure melting point and the coexistence of solid and liquid water, are generally considered unsuitable as natural archives because meltwater undermines the paleoclimatic signals they hold. Historically, ice-core studies have favoured cold glaciers. However, the ongoing atmospheric warming is driving many formerly cold portions of glaciers toward [...]
Large-scale rotational extension triggered basin formation in interior East Antarctica
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Tectonics and Structure
Recent sub-ice topography investigations have imaged with greatly improved detail a set of enigmatic low-elevation V-shaped basins hidden beneath a very large sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we show that these basins form a semi-continental sized fan shaped physiographic unit which radiates from a pin point near the South Pole and name it the East Antarctic Fan-shaped Basin Province. [...]
El Niño amplified food insecurity in early modern Europe
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant source of global inter annual climate variability, yet its long-term influence on food security remains poorly understood. Drawing on a recently compiled dataset of 160 European famines and a new high-resolution ENSO reconstruction, we show a robust correspondence between positive ENSO anomalies (El Niño events) and subsistence crises during [...]
Tidally-Driven Diapycnal Upwelling in a Rough Sloping Canyon
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Turbulent mixing over rough topography shapes abyssal ocean dynamics, yet a gap between large- and small-scale models underscores the need to connect processes across scales. Using three-dimensional large eddy simulations (LES) with quasi-realistic sloping topography from a Brazil Basin canyon, we force an ocean model solely with a barotropic M2 tide body force, allowing internal waves, [...]
How Robust are Single Aliquot Regeneration paleo-doses using single grains of Quartz: The role of change in luminescence sensitivity during the measurement of natural luminescence
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Luminescence dating using quartz is generally carried out using the single aliquot regeneration (SAR) protocol (Murray et al., 2021; Murray and Wintle, 2000). Singhvi et al. (2011) suggested a methodological improvement in the SAR protocol to account for the changes in the luminescence sensitivity during the readout of natural OSL signal. It was suggested that such changes are common and if not [...]
Heat stress as an emerging constraint on global dairy systems: global gridded CMIP6 projections and national-scale milk loss exposure
Published: 2025-12-17
Subjects: Agriculture, Animal Sciences
Dairy production is a key component of global food systems, providing essential nutrients and supporting rural livelihoods, but it is increasingly exposed to heat stress under climate change. Here, we present a spatially explicit global assessment of heat-stress exposure and potential milk-yield losses using bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections at 0.25° resolution combined with gridded [...]
Resource expansion with uncertainty quantification of regolith-hosted REE deposits using radiometric data
Published: 2025-12-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Rare earth elements (REE) are critical raw materials due to their essential role in modern technologies. In regolith-hosted REE (RH-REE) deposits a substantial fraction of the REE is present as ionically adsorbed, exchangeable cations on secondary clay minerals and amenable to mild extraction routes potentially being less environmentally disruptive than conventional hard-rock REE operations. [...]
South Atlantic abyssal temperature variability and trends at 34.5°S
Published: 2025-12-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Warming of abyssal waters in the South Atlantic has been reported in recent years. However, the variability of bottom temperatures and its implications for assessing linear trends have received limited attention. In addition to confirming positive temperature trends, this study documents substantial bottom-temperature variability, from tidal to annual time scales, captured by bottom moorings [...]
A Rapid Analytical Method for Predicting Injection Rates in Heterogeneous Reservoirs
Published: 2025-12-16
Subjects: Engineering
Maximum injection rate is a key criterion when screening subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs or aquifers for possible EOR schemes or storage of hydrocarbon gas, hydrogen or carbon dioxide. It has to be high enough to achieve desired rates without risking the formation fracturing. Screening requires evaluation of thousands or millions of potential injection sites to identify those with favourable [...]
Caravan-Qual: A global scale integration of water quality observations into a large-sample hydrology dataset
Published: 2025-12-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Protecting and improving surface water quality is contingent upon understanding the trends and spatial patterns in physical, biological, and chemical conditions and their underlying drivers. This requires observational data, spanning a diverse range of water quality constituents, coupled with contextual environmental data. Here we present the first global-scale integration of water quality into [...]