Preprints
There are 6601 Preprints listed.
Time-dependent forecast of large earthquakes from physics-informed probabilistic approach
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The elastic energy that fuels large earthquakes accumulates heterogeneously along faults, resulting in complex earthquake occurrence patterns. Although earthquake cycle simulations help capture such complexity in seismic hazard models, their high computational cost prevents widespread use and uncertainty quantification. Here, we propose a physics-based probabilistic method to forecast the timing [...]
Characterization of the Kinematics of the Cordillera Blanca Normal Fault from InSAR
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
The Cordillera Blanca Normal fault (CBNF), located along the western margin of the Cordillera Blanca batholith in northern Peru, is a major extensional structure of the central Andes. Geological and geomorphological evidence indicates sustained slip over the past ~4 Ma, yet its present-day kinematics have not been quantified geodetically. Here, we use Sentinel-1 InSAR (Interferometric [...]
Harnessing naturally occurring sodium carbonate and bicarbonate for gigatonne-scale carbon dioxide removal
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Engineering
Ocean alkalinity enhancement is a promising carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approach, but scaling up to gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 per year will require safe, sustainable, and abundant alkaline feedstocks. Here, we propose the use of a relatively unexplored resource for OAE, namely naturally occurring sodium (bi)carbonates. We identified and mapped 109 such deposits globally, although quantitative [...]
From environmental observation to shared narratives through human-AI interaction
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
A structural bottleneck limits sustainability practices: many people can participate in environmental observation, but far fewer can participate in the synthesis work that turns observations into shared narratives that guide action. We term this disparity "synthesis inequality". Citizen-science programs have expanded public access to data collection, yet data interpretation largely remains [...]
Carbon mineralization in CO2-seawater-basalt systems: Reactive transport dynamics and vesicular pore architecture controls
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Carbon mineralization in basaltic rocks offers a promising pathway for rapid, permanent CO2 storage, yet the fundamental controls on reactive transport, precipitation patterns, and permeability evolution under seawater conditions remain poorly constrained. This study integrates flow-through column experiments at 80°C with CO2-acidified seawater, geochemical modeling, and multi-scale pore imaging [...]
snowman: an open-source R package for automated 30-m snow and ice cover mapping using the Landsat archive
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Glaciology, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Seasonal snow and ice cover are critical components of the cryosphere yet mapping their dynamics at ecologically relevant spatiotemporal scales remains challenging. Here I present snowman, an open-source R package and algorithm for automated mapping of snow and ice cover dynamics at 30-m resolution using Landsat satellite imagery (1982–present). The algorithm combines globally trained [...]
Assessing the medium-term risk to reef damage and rubble generation for the Great Barrier Reef
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coral reef systems live in multi-hazard environments and are exposed to a wide range of disturbance events that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. We identify seven drivers derived from hazards that have and can result in reef damage in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): waves, winds, bottom current velocity, coral bleaching, crown-of-thorns seastar outbreaks, ship groundings, and [...]
An analysis of landslides in Great Britain using soil texture, rainfall, and topography reveals contrasting failure conditions between organic and mineral soils
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Rainfall-induced landslides cause millions of pounds in damage to infrastructure in Great Britain (GB) annually and occasionally result in human fatalities. However, there are limited guidelines or policies aimed at reducing landslide risk in GB and few studies have broadly characterized landslide incidence across the region. Furthermore, peat landslides, which are a phenomenon that occur almost [...]
Discharge Deficits in the Nepali Himalaya Linked to Greening and Warming
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Hydrology
Anthropogenic climate change and rapid infrastructure development have drastically altered the hydrology of many watersheds, influencing the speed at which water is absorbed, stored, and distributed. In this work, we use long-term daily discharge records in the Nepali Himalaya alongside rainfall and snowmelt data to explore whether there have been large-scale shifts in the conversion of upstream [...]
Amazon deforestation footprint across global food and financial systems
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Studies, Forest Management, Remote Sensing
Agriculture-driven deforestation in the Amazon remains a major threat to ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and climate regulation. Yet the role of global commodity consumption and finance in driving deforestation in the Amazon remains poorly understood and inadequately addressed. We provide the first comprehensive assessment of the Amazon deforestation footprint embedded in global supply chains [...]
Mapping the interaction of a pyroclastic density current with irregular topography: the chemically-zoned, low aspect-ratio Green Tuff ignimbrite, Pantelleria, Italy
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Volcanology
Pyroclastic density currents are known to have high mobility, overtopping topographic barriers great distances from source. However, how density currents interact with topography is not yet fully understood, particularly with regard to dense, granular, sustained currents. We used detailed chemical mapping to show how the response of an individual pyroclastic current to topographic barriers [...]
The distribution of Earth’s wind-blown sand dunes
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Climate, Geology, Geomorphology
Sand dunes develop when there is a source of sediment and wind capable of saltating that sediment. Dune morphology and occurrence can then be used to infer the distribution of sediment sources and climate conditions during their formation. This is particularly useful for inference of past climate from relict dunes or the sedimentary record, and for climate conditions where direct observation is [...]
Connectivity between primary and secondary subglacial drainage systems beneath a land-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The evolution and connectivity of subglacial drainage systems controls basal sliding and therefore modulates ice flow, yet direct observations of these systems remain limited. Here, we investigate hydraulic connectivity and its influence on ice motion at Isunnguata Sermia - a large land-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We use ‘Cryoegg’ wireless sensors to obtain moulin [...]
Hydrological modeling in a highly urbanized watershed using explainable machine learning and sub-hourly data: A case study in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Engineering
Hydrological modeling of urbanized watersheds is a highly challenging task due to the complexity and non-linearity of the rainfall-runoff relationship in these areas. Many data-driven models have been proposed in the literature to address this problem. However, in this field, there is a need not only for performance but also for explainability and comprehension of the impacts of [...]
Processing flaws and uneven Sentinel-1 coverage distort global flood trend interpretations
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Hydrology