Preprints
There are 6647 Preprints listed.
Beyond efficiency: Sufficiency unlocks deep decarbonization of U.S. residential sector
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Residential decarbonization strategies in the United States have focused predominantly on energy efficiency measures such as heat pump adoption and building envelope upgrades, while sufficiency—avoiding unnecessary energy demand while ensuring well-being—remains largely unrepresented in quantitative national scenarios. Here, we assess the effects of structural sufficiency (i.e., moderating [...]
Probabilistic modelling of pharmaceutical pollution risk from sewage treatment work discharges using a Bayesian Network: application to a Scottish river catchment
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Pharmacology, Toxicology and Environmental Health, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
Pharmaceuticals are increasingly recognised as a class of emerging contaminants of concern in rivers. Their continuous release from human use and variable removal in sewage treatment works (STWs) can produce ecologically relevant concentrations and contribute to antimicrobial resistance. We developed a probabilistic catchment-scale model based on a Bayesian Network (BN) to quantify pharmaceutical [...]
Melt sustains pre-monsoon flow while groundwater drives the monsoon in the Nepal Himalayas
Published: 2026-03-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Himalayan water-security assessments often focus on glacier retreat, yet groundwater may supply much of river flow. We combine seismic observations from the Hi-CLIMB transect across Nepal (2002–2004) with gauged discharge, satellite precipitation, and glacier-cover inventories to resolve when streamflow is sustained by melt versus groundwater. Relative seismic velocity changes track hillslope [...]
THE ROLE OF IRON CENTERS IN COAL OXIDATION: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION OF SURFACE ACTIVE SITE DENSITY
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Iron in coals occurs in various forms (pyrite, ultradispersed particles, ions in the carbon matrix) and plays a key role in oxidation processes, spontaneous combustion, liquefaction, and gasification. Although extensive experimental data have accumulated over recent decades, a systematic generalization linking quantitative estimates of the surface density of catalytically active Fe centers to [...]
Volcanic CO2 degassing and microbial carbon fixation in a caldera offshore
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Volcanology
Calderas are subsided volcanic terrains formed by the destructive power of some of the largest volcanic eruptions on Earth. Many such depressions globally are today submerged by crater lakes or seawater, rendering them less accessible to scientific scrutiny, and hence more complicated to monitor during unrest. One of such systems is the restless, partly submerged Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc) near [...]
The 1908 Tunguska event and some mini-Tunguskas
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper is a continuation of a series of works, devoted to various aspects of the 1908 Tunguska event. This paper is devoted to several events which can be called as mini-Tunguskas. Their manifestations are in some ways similar to the 1908 Tunguska event, only on a much smaller scale. Often initially such events were interpreted as meteoroidal bolides or even meteorite falls. However, the [...]
Territorially-Specialized Machine Learning Models for Wildfire Risk Prediction Across Argentina Using Satellite Data and H3 Hexagonal Grids
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Wildfire risk prediction in large, ecologically diverse countries requires models that account for regional variation in fire drivers. We present GeoAlertAR-ML, a wildfire risk prediction system for Argentina that uses an ensemble of regionally specialized Random Forest classifiers operating over a national hexagonal grid of 13,231 H3 cells. Unlike global fire danger indices or single-model [...]
Inequality’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Published: 2026-03-13
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Sciences, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Inequality is rising and so is global catastrophic risk. These two problems are not independent from each other. Inequality has historically been a major driver of social instability, and is increasing the risk of global catastrophes today. We demonstrate this by drawing on the rich literature around societal collapse and global catastrophe from both past and modern societies, highlighting the [...]
A Physics-Informed Data Science Approach to Quantifying Rain-Snow Fraction Dynamics in the Central Himalayas
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mountain studies worldwide have documented increases in rainfall fraction as an impact of climate change. Most mountain systems show an increasing trend in rainfall fraction due to shifting snow precipitation to rain. In Nepal, which occupies an 800 km-long belt of the Hindu Kush Himalaya, the precipitation phase trend is not well known. This study conducts a precipitation phase study in the [...]
Interpretable Relations between Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and U.S. Precipitation in Winter Season Forecasts
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We explore the large-scale relations between anomalies of global tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and U.S. precipitation to assess the sources of December-February (DJF) predictability and skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is applied to forecasts from NOAA's latest seasonal prediction system, the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR). We find that DJF [...]
A terrain-aware approach for image-based urban flood monitoring
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Urban nuisance flooding is widespread, yet quantitative observations of its magnitude and spatial variability remain limited. Most image-based approaches provide only relative measures of flooded image fraction, while quantitative methods require surveyed ground control and three-dimensional reconstruction. We introduce a terrain aware, perspective weighted framework that converts flooded image [...]
Interactive effects of landscape position and soil diversity drive the spatial variability of soil organic carbon concentration in subalpine soils of Switzerland
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Soil Science
Subalpine soils store a significant amount of soil organic carbon (SOC), yet the factors driving its landscape-scale variability remain poorly constrained. Although topography, soil type, soil texture, and moisture are recognised as key drivers of SOC concentration, their interactive effects in subalpine environments remain largely unexplored. In particular, the extent to which soil type shapes [...]
Complete electrification worsens the net energy prospects of a transition based on wind and solar energy.
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mitigating climate change largely relies on substituting fossil fuels with low-carbon, electricity-producing energy sources. This mass electrification deeply alters sectoral energy demand, as some sectors can be more efficiently electrified than others. Building transition infrastructure – such as solar and wind farms, grid extensions, and electric vehicles – at a sufficient pace to achieve [...]
Nationwide deadwood mapping reveals rising mountain forests vulnerability
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Climate, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences
Forest mortality is increasing globally under climate change, making detailed, large-scale monitoring essential for understanding ecosystem responses and guiding adaptive forest management. Here, we present a spatio-temporal assessment of standing deadwood in Switzerland from 2018 to 2023, derived from centimeter-scale high-resolution aerial imagery. We reveal a consistent upslope concentration [...]
Multi-decadal Barrier Island Fate Varies as a Function of Management Strategy
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Barrier islands are highly dynamic components of sandy coastlines, making up 10% of coastlines globally. Barriers provide recreational opportunities, protect mainland communities from storms, support tourism, and provide ecologically important habitat. Using a spatially explicit barrier island model, CASCADE, calibrated to represent the historical dynamics of Ocracoke, a barrier island in the [...]