Preprints
There are 6989 Preprints listed.
A 10,000-Year Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Catalog with Wind-Dependent Track Transitions (WHITS)
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Risk Analysis
Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) risk is limited by the brevity and spatial sparsity of the historical record, particularly for the rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS (Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator), a non-parametric semi-Markov track generator that extends the HITS framework of Nakamura et al. (2015) in three ways: [...]
Local refinement of a national-scale groundwater model
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Planetary Hydrology, Water Resource Management
This method article presents a local refinement framework for a national-scale, machine learning-based groundwater model that predicts typical summer and winter water table depth at 10 × 10 m resolution at national scale of Denmark. While the existing baseline model provides high-resolution national coverage and is suitable for screening purposes, its accuracy remains insufficient for local [...]
Role of Fault Geometry in Generating Backward-migrating P-wave Radiation During the 2025 Mw 7.7 Myanmar Earthquake
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
The Mw 7.7 Myanmar earthquake of 28 March 2025 ruptured the Sagaing Fault system over ~450 km and exhibited complex rupture behavior, including intermittent supershear propagation and backward-migrating high-frequency (HF) P-wave radiation. We image the rupture evolution using multi-frequency teleseismic P-wave back-projection (BP) (0.05–0.5, 0.1–1.0, and 0.3–2.0 Hz) and compare the results with [...]
Climate Change Perceptions and Policy Priorities in Pakistan: A Community Survey Analysis and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Perspective
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change constitutes a compound existential risk for Pakistan — a nation responsible for less than one percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions yet consistently ranked among the ten most climate-vulnerable states on earth (Germanwatch, 2021). Escalating heatwaves, intensifying monsoon floods, accelerating glacial retreat, chronic smog, and advancing desertification are not future [...]
Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Check-Dam Height Effects on Downstream Debris-Flow Depth for Structural Countermeasure Scenarios
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis
Check dams can influence debris-flow propagation, but their effects may depend on location, height, and local topographic conditions. This study evaluates the sensitivity of downstream debris-flow depth to check-dam height scenarios using numerical simulations of a mountainous catchment in Atami, Japan. Six hypothetical check-dam locations were placed along the torrent, and 4,877 valid cases were [...]
Snow water equivalent estimates from airborne radar in the St. Elias Mountains
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Glaciology
Quantifying the input mass from snow accumulation on rapidly changing glaciers is critical to establishing baseline states and predicting responses to climate change. Some of the largest glaciers in the world are located in the St. Elias Mountains in Southeast Alaska and Southwest Yukon; however, the input mass to these glaciers is poorly constrained. Here we used airborne radar sounding combined [...]
Stratigraphy as a low-pass filter: selective preservation of spatial variability on a Holocene carbonate platform
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Walther’s law, a fundamental principle in geoscience, predicts that laterally adjacent depositional environments become preserved as a vertical succession of layers (facies). As an expression of uniformitarianism, this law underpins interpretations of Earth’s history, yet it has not been quantitatively tested. We test this law and examine its limitations by quantifying multidecadal changes in [...]
Legacy brewery phosphorus as a management constraint in the Mashapaug Watershed: unresolved reservoirs and pathways in an urban pond cascade
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Spectacle and Mashapaug Ponds have been listed as impaired waters in Rhode Island since 2002, with 20 public-health advisories issued since 2011. Phosphorus is treated as the primary limiting nutrient for harmful algal blooms in the watershed, and Spectacle Pond is the largest direct phosphorus source to Mashapaug Pond and the lower pond cascade. In February 2026, the Rhode Island Department of [...]
Seasonality and Trends in Coastal Water Temperatures from NOAA Water Level Monitoring Stations along US Coasts
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coastal regions are complex environments. They lie at the confluence of physical oceanic, atmospheric, and land-based processes, and continue to undergo significant change due to both natural and human-driven factors. Although it is well known that ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased over the past several decades, extending these trends and patterns to coastal waters is [...]
Stochastic Inversion of geophysical data by sequential Bayesian updating under a non-stationary Gaussian process prior
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Statistics and Probability
The acquisition of geophysical data is becoming increasingly important in the context of critical mineral exploration. Geophysical data and inversion product are essential to map many components of the critical mineral system by detecting geophysical anomalies that can be interpreted by expert geologists. However, the inversion of airborne geophysical data acquired along flightlines into [...]
Integrating machine learning with a process-based model for estimating global wetland methane emissions
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Methane emissions from natural wetlands are a major contributor to the changing global climate. However, estimates of such emissions are uncertain and depend on the modeling approach used. Process-based modeling of wetland emissions incorporates scientific knowledge of the underlying biogeochemical process, but prediction accuracy is insufficient. Machine learning models have the potential to [...]
Geometrical Variations of the Skeletal Structures of Genus Pantanellium as Determined from Collected Specimens
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Paleontology
Novel graph and string representations of the cortical shell structures of the genus Pantanellium, a Mesozoic radiolarian, are proposed. The representations are then used to compare the frame structures of fifty-nine specimens collected for the study. Among the fifty-nine fossil specimens, forty-seven different structures were found. It was also found that the frequency of the truncated [...]
Multi-Modal Unsupervised Change Detection of Urban Vegetation in Birmingham, UK: A Cross-Method Comparison under 2022 Drought Conditions
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Engineering
As the climate changes, cities are increasingly exposed to extreme weather events such as droughts, further amplified by the urban heat island effect. Urban vegetation, a key Nature-based Solution for cooling and climate resilience, is vulnerable to water stress. Therefore, it is increasingly important to understand how urban vegetation responds during drought years, particularly where [...]
Lumped Thermal Impedance Modeling of Anthropogenic Global Warming of the Troposphere
Published: 2026-05-18
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Anthropogenic global warming has reached a level so high that it is now possible to an- alyze its dynamics and spatial variation. Spatially varying Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies [1] can be well described by exponential functions with increase rates that range from 2.1 to 3.7% per year, depending on the region. The Northern Hemisphere has warmed significantly more than the Southern [...]
GEDIMetrics: a QGIS plugin for accessing and integrating multi-product GEDI spaceborne LiDAR data
Published: 2026-05-18
Subjects: Databases and Information Systems, Environmental Monitoring, Forest Management, Geographic Information Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides near-global, high-resolution 3D LiDAR observations of forest vertical structure. However, GEDI products are distributed as independent HDF5 files organised by beam, requiring ad-hoc workflows for data discovery, quality filtering, spatial subsetting, and footprint-level alignment across products. Existing tools either target a single [...]