Preprints
There are 7821 Preprints listed.
The July 2026 North American wildfire smoke event was three times deadlier due to climate change
Published: 2026-10-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In mid-July 2026, numerous fast-burning wildfires affected western Ontario and northern Minnesota, resulting in extensive smoke plumes across eastern North America. Here, we conduct a rapid attribution analysis of the 14–21 July smoke event, quantifying the change in wildfire smoke (WFS) PM2.5 concentrations and mortality compared to a counterfactual world without anthropogenic climate change [...]
Who Breathes Worse? Socio-economic Deprivation and PM2.5 in India
Published: 2026-10-13
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Air pollution in India has intensified rapidly, alongside substantial population growth across regions with highly uneven socioeconomic and developmental conditions. Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is among the leading environmental contributors to premature mortality in India, where national average concentrations exceed the World Health Organization guideline by an order of magnitude. [...]
Fingerprinting PFAS pollution in European surface waters
Published: 2026-10-13
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Water Resource Management
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) comprise a large group of synthetic chemical substances used across industries and find application in a diverse range of consumer products. Owing to their ubiquitous use and ongoing emissions, such substances are distributed throughout the environment. PFAS and their metabolites pose considerable risk to environmental and human health due to their high [...]
MELVIS: An open-source web application for computing and modelling the viscosity of volcanic melts
Published: 2026-10-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
The viscosity of volcanic melts governs magma transport, eruption dynamics, and a broad range of magmatic processes, so predicting it as a function of temperature, composition, and dissolved water content is central to physical volcanology. Yet no freely accessible tool integrates global machine-learning predictions, physically motivated viscosity equations, and composition-specific models [...]
Using 4D synchrotron X-ray microtomography rigs for time-resolved X-ray diffraction experiments: applications with the Mjölnir suite
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Synchrotron 4D X-ray microtomography provides unique insights into evolving microstructures during deformation, fluid flow and mineral transformations, but offers limited access to crystallographic information such as phase composition, lattice strain, and stress. Conversely, synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) provides direct crystallographic measurements but is commonly restricted to small [...]
Along-strike stress delays the ordering of slip on a fixed-length fault
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The size of a large earthquake depends on how far the rupture runs and how much the fault slips. An early correlation with magnitude can appear while those two contributions are still mixed. Patches at both ends stop every rupture on a 120 km fault, so the length no longer varies and the early order is an order of slip. One background stress is a single value along the fault, and the other also [...]
Universality and Information Loss in the Stratigraphic Record
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Statistical Models, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, Stratigraphy
Sedimentary rocks are the main archive of Earth history, yet most of the time they span is not represented by rock. Material deposited at any moment survives only if the depositional surface never later erodes below it, so the stratigraphic column keeps only the lowest levels that a fluctuating surface will reach in the future. We treat this rule as a filter on a randomly evolving surface and [...]
X-ray microdiffraction mapping on experimentally synthesized clinopyroxenes
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Volcanology
Crystallographic parameters serve as fundamental archives of crystallization environments, with pressure generally acting as a key variable governing crystal formation. In magmatic systems, tracking crystallographic and chemical parameters in clinopyroxene is critical for robust magmatic thermobarometry and reconstructing crystal life histories. While chemical thermobarometry is limited by melt [...]
Evaluating Dynamic Viability of Finite-Fault Slip Models with Ensemble Kalman Inversion
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Finite-fault slip models are widely used to infer earthquake rupture processes, yet they are inherently non-unique and do not guarantee physically consistent rupture evolution. Here, we develop a data-constrained framework that couples Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) with large-scale 3D dynamic rupture simulations to efficiently evaluate the dynamic viability of finite-fault slip models. The [...]
Historical and projected freshwater withdrawals and irrigation consumptive use for Arizona, 1896–2099
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology
Sustainable water management needs spatially resolved withdrawal estimates, yet such data remain scarce worldwide. In Arizona, USA, decades of aquifer overdraft and Colorado River over-allocation have outpaced local withdrawal data, constraining policymaking. We present annual freshwater withdrawal and irrigation consumptive use estimates for Arizona at 2 km resolution over 1896–2099, partitioned [...]
VITAL-PATHS-FOOD: New Transformative Change Pathways for Tackling Climate, Human Development, and Biodiversity Loss and Incorporating Plural Perspectives on Justice and the Value of Nature.
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Nature and Society Relations
The IPBES Transformative Change Assessment (2025) gives a central role to equity, justice, and the value of nature in facilitating sustainable transformations, by acting as a powerful deep leverage point that aligns sustainability transformations with the values and worldviews different communities hold. Scenarios and modelling studies offer a tool for examining ways of acting on these leverage [...]
Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts for Mississippi River Navigation Risk and Parametric Insurance
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Mississippi River navigation is disrupted by both low and high water extremes, yet shippers, ports, and terminals lack a simple instrument to transfer that risk. We test whether probabilistic forecasts of monthly streamflow can provide useful navigation-risk information. Using pretrained Chronos-2 at three major Mississippi River subbasin outlets, we compute navigation risk probabilities, [...]
Wave-Driven Sliding, Ratcheting, and Overturning of Coral Transplant Units: An Idealized Nonsmooth Contact Model
Published: 2026-10-11
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Marine Biology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography, Systems Biology
Coral transplantation attaches fragments to a structure placed on the seabed, and that structure must stay put long enough for the fragments to fuse to it. We examine that requirement with an idealized model in which a transplant unit is a planar rigid body on a rigid bed under two unilateral frictional contacts, loaded through a Morison description of near-bed wave kinematics and integrated by a [...]
Quantifying volumetric erosion from symbolic expression of landslide morphology
Published: 2026-10-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landslide volumetric erosion is fundamental to regional sediment budgets and downstream hazard assessment, yet accurately constraining material mobilization remains a primary bottleneck in Earth-system research. Legacy area–volume relations introduce substantial uncertainty when applied across heterogeneous landslide populations. Here, we examine whether the erosional and accumulation (i.e., [...]
ORBIT: A new, reduced-complexity air quality model for South Asia
Published: 2026-10-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences
Exposure to outdoor air pollution is the most important environmental health risk worldwide, associated with over a million deaths each year in South Asia alone. To understand how to improve air quality, it is necessary to model how changes in emissions affect changes in pollutant concentrations and human health. However, air quality modeling typically demands substantial computation and [...]