Preprints
There are 7240 Preprints listed.
Stormwater storage among remnant, degraded and restored urban prairies and wetlands of varying ecological quality
Published: 2026-07-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
In response to increasing intensification of land use and more frequent and severe flooding, urban green spaces and natural areas are being relied upon to provide additional stormwater storage. Natural grasslands and wetlands provide extensive ecosystem services, including stormwater storage. These types of ecosystems were once widespread across the globe, but much of this habitat has been lost [...]
Stable estimates of when global temperature thresholds will be crossed: least-squares fits as the end date of the fitted span is reduced
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Reliable estimates of when global mean temperature will exceed the Paris Agreement's 2°C threshold1 are generally derived from emissions scenarios and climate models rather than from the observed temperature record itself. This study investigates whether the observed warming trajectory alone can provide a stable empirical estimate of the crossing date. Least-squares exponential, quadratic and [...]
Flood Risk Management Strategies for Bridgeport, Connecticut: AComparative Analysis of Infrastructure Hardening and Managed Retreat
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study analyzes sea-level rise management options for Bridgeport, Connecticut, comparing infrastructurehardening and managed retreat using a mixed-methods approach that integrates geospatial analysis, policy analysis,and vulnerability assessment. Sea-level rise projections under NOAA scenarios range from 3.3 ft (low emission) to15.1 ft (extreme) by 2100, with the South End and East End [...]
CSUFlow25: Colorado Streamflow Ungaged Prediction Models
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
CSUFlow25 is an updated set of statistical models for predicting streamflow in ungaged basins in Colorado, USA. It builds on the earlier CSUFlow18 models (Eurich et al., 2021) by extending the streamflow record from water years 2001–2018 to 2001–2024, expanding the pool of candidate predictor variables, and increasing the number of streamflow metrics predicted. Models were developed from a [...]
Dynamics of Sea-level Changes in the Red Sea
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Life Sciences
Under the recent global climatic changes, the information on sea-level changes is very important for the proper understanding of upper-ocean processes. The information on sea-level changes in the Red Sea is significantly lacking, especially the information on interannual variability, long-term trends, and associated dynamics. The present study attempted to fill this gap by analyzing the satellite [...]
Beyond equilibrium: Multi-method mass-balance monitoring at the vanishing Alpine glacier Stubacher Sonnblickkees, Austria
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Glaciology
Glaciers in the Eastern Alps are approaching extinction, raising the question of how reliably established mass-balance monitoring methods perform on glaciers in severe disequilibrium. We present a multi-year (2018–2025) intercomparison of three independent methods – direct glaciological, semi-direct (accumulation-area-ratio based) and UAV-geodetic – at Stubacher Sonnblickkees (SSK), Austria, [...]
Surface, not exhaust: a multi-sensor satellite test bounds the local thermal footprint of hyperscale data centres
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Whether hyperscale data centres (DCs) warm their surroundings has become a live policy question with directly conflicting answers: a coarse-resolution satellite preprint attributes ~2 °C of land-surface warming to facilities worldwide (Marinoni et al 2026), while peer-reviewed mobile transects near Phoenix measure +0.7-0.9 °C of near-ground air warming within a few hundred metres downwind (Sailor [...]
Leakage-audited machine learning versus ETAS for earthquake forecasting in the Sea of Marmara
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Sea of Marmara hosts a seismic gap directly beneath a metropolitan region of some 18 million people, and the 23 April 2025 Mw 6.2 Kumburgaz earthquake renewed attention on whether short-term forecasting can add value there. We report a leakage-audited forecasting experiment built on a strictly causal, homogenized KOERI catalogue (31,329 model-box events, 2003–2026). Motivated by the finding [...]
When does array moveout help borehole phase picking? A leave-one-site-out, confound-free benchmark of array versus per-trace deep learning
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep-learning phase pickers are increasingly deployed on borehole microseismic arrays, yet two questions central to operational monitoring remain poorly quantified: how well such models generalize to a site they were not trained on, and whether the cross-station moveout that an array provides actually improves that generalization. We give the first confound-free answer using the AMBER benchmark [...]
Coupled geophysical and technoeconomic growth constraints on geological carbon storage scaleup with an application to the UK
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering
Geological carbon dioxide storage is central to meeting many national climate change commitments. Yet large-scale deployment remains poorly constrained by both techno-economic limits on how rapidly the technology can scale and physics-based constraints imposed by the behavior of the subsurface. We here develop a modelling framework to identify feasible CO2 storage scaleup trajectories constrained [...]
Seasonal, Interannual and Long-term Sea-level Changes in the Arabian Gulf
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Life Sciences
The present chapter explores the seasonal, interannual, and long-term sea-level changes in the Arabian Gulf. Tides, winds, and density-driven currents are the primary drivers of circulation in the Arabian Gulf. The sea level is relatively high during fall and low during spring, with a maximum during November and a minimum during April. The sea-level variability in the Arabian Gulf is considerably [...]
Bitwise Reproducibility as an Incomplete Correctness Signal: A Structural Audit for Parallel Spectral GCMs
Published: 2026-07-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Bitwise reproducibility of an OpenMP-parallelized scientific code is usually verified by checksum comparison on a short run—an inductive leap that carries no guarantee at longer integration lengths. We study it instead as a deductive and diagnostic property of the source text, taking a legacy spectral atmospheric general circulation model, whose time step is a reduction over a partitioned [...]
Pixel-Level Urban Housing-Price Mapping Based on AlphaEarth Foundations: Evidence from 36 Chinese Cities
Published: 2026-07-04
Subjects: Computer Engineering, Computer Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Human Geography, Remote Sensing
This study develops and validates a multi-source modelling framework for continuous, pixel-level urban housing-price mapping using surface embeddings from AlphaEarth Foundations (AEF). Pixel-level labels calibrated against multi-source market data are constructed for 288 city–year samples across 36 Chinese cities (2017–2024), and AEF’s 64-dimensional, 10 m annual surface embeddings are [...]
A hidden component of magnetic storms makes Earth's mantle transition zone look drier than it is
Published: 2026-07-04
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Electromagnetic sounding provides a primary geophysical constraint on water in Earth's mantle transition zone, yet conductivity models disagree by up to an order of magnitude. We identify a source-side systematic invisible to internal consistency checks: omitting the degree-3 zonal (P₃⁰) storm-field component biases transition-zone conductivity by 0.1–0.35 decades, a tenth to a quarter of that [...]
Rapid Estimation of Soil Profile Arsenic Content and Identification of Substitute Indicators Using Random Forest: A Case Study of Nenjiang City, China
Published: 2026-07-04
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Direct measurement of soil arsenic (As) requires complex analytical procedures, motivating the development of predictive methods based on readily measurable indicators. This study systematically analyzed 50 geochemical indicators using 204 soil samples collected from 69 sampling sites across a 0–500 cm depth profile in Nenjiang County, Heilongjiang Province. A random forest (RF) algorithm was [...]