Preprints
There are 7506 Preprints listed.
The Super El Niño–Polar Vortex Paradox QBO Modulation and a Testable Hypothesis for Winter 2026/27
Published: 2026-08-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The absence of major midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) during the three strongest El Niño winters in the instrumental record—1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16—poses an open question at the high-amplitude end of the canonical ENSO–stratosphere pathway. Motivated by the exceptionally strong El Niño developing in 2026, this study re-examines that relationship using publicly available ONI, [...]
Material demand and supply-chain assessment of U.S. electricity system transitions
Published: 2026-08-30
Subjects: Engineering
Decarbonizing the U.S. electricity sector will require rapid deployment of generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure, increasing demand for materials. We develop an integrated framework that quantifies annual and cumulative material demand from 2027 to 2050 across an ensemble of U.S. electricity futures spanning alternative policy, technology, and economic assumptions. Across the [...]
Upper-Scale Structural Evaluation of the Forearc Weak Suture Zone and the Pacific Plate Interface — An Analysis Based on Precursor Data (No.1778) —
Published: 2026-08-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study reinterprets precursor data (No.1778) published by the Yatsugatake South Base Observatory using the framework of seismology and tectonics, in order to evaluate the upper-scale structural potential of the forearc weak suture zone and the Pacific Plate interface beneath the Kanto Basin. The precursor data are not used for earthquake prediction; instead, they are treated as aggregate [...]
Deep Learning-Based Meteorological Data Downscaling: A Comparative Study with Physics Informed CNN and a Component-Level Ablation Analysis
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Computer Engineering, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Meteorological statistical downscaling is a critical technique for deriving high-resolution climate information from coarse global reanalysis products. This experiment investigates the application of five representative deep learning architectures for downscaling ERA5 reanalysis 2m temperature fields from 1° to 0.25° spatial resolution (4x upscaling factor) over the China region, spanning the [...]
Climate change has intensified exceptional El Niño events like the 2026/27 forecast
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Extreme El Niño events disrupt weather across much of the globe, with adverse effects on agriculture, fisheries and economic output that persist for several years. Event attribution routinely quantifies the human influence on individual heatwaves, droughts and floods, but its application to the El Niño events that drive many of them has been much more limited. Here we investigate the 2026/27 El [...]
Manufactured vulnerability in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta: engineered drivers and coastal displacement in south-west Bangladesh
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Displacement from the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta in south-west Bangladesh is usually attributed to sea-level rise, cyclones and salinity. The evidence assembled here points to a jointly produced process, in which hazards act together with engineered landscape change, governance arrangements and the interval households spend unable to return. Peer-reviewed and grey literature for Khulna, [...]
Limited sensitivity of published InSight RISE rotation products to the seismically proposed Martian inner-core family: a prospectively specified reanalysis
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology
The InSight Rotation and Interior Structure Experiment (RISE) measured the rotation of Mars by radio tracking; Le Maistre et al. (2023) report the detection of the Free Core Nutation (FCN, period −243 ± 3.3 d) and no detection of the Free Inner Core Nutation (FICN) that a solid inner core would add. Bi et al. (2025) subsequently reported a 613 ± 67 km solid inner core from seismology, without [...]
The Bhote Koshi–Trishuli flash flood of 26 August 2026, Rasuwa, Nepal: warning latency exceeded flood travel time
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology
An ice-rock mass detached from the northern flank of the Langtang massif, Nepal, at 08:37:10 Nepal Time on 26 August 2026, blocked the Lhende Khola and released a cascade that killed more than 500 people along the Bhote Koshi-Trishuli-Narayani corridor. This study measures the warning chain end to end, combining the reviewed seismic origin time with the gauge chronology published by Nepal's Flood [...]
A qualitative content analysis of wildfire smoke preparedness and response plans in the United States and Canada
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Public Health
Wildfires in North America have become more frequent and intense in recent years. This increase can be attributed to climate change, which has led to higher temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, creating conditions that favor wildfires. In addition, human activities, such as land development, forest management practices, and the ignition of fires, further contribute to the rising [...]
Space-based InSAR with sub-daily temporal baselines
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Aerospace Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) underpins the Surface Deformation and Change observable prioritized by the 2018 decadal survey, yet the temporal sampling of current assets aliases many transient geophysical processes. For single-satellite repeat-pass InSAR, satellite orbits accommodate temporal baselines at integer nodal day intervals down to a single nodal day. Processes that [...]
System openness governs detectable signals of enhanced rock weathering in soils: a global meta-analysis
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Substantial heterogeneity in enhanced rock weathering (ERW) outcomes is often attributed to dissolution controls. However, we show that experimental boundary conditions – especially system openness – provide a primary explanation because dissolution products can be redistributed or exported beyond the sampled pool. We synthesise 81 peer-reviewed ERW studies (205 comparisons) using [...]
Topographic control on ice anisotropy in Antarctic ice rises inferred from phase-sensitive radar
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Raymond effect within ice rises and underneath ice divides of ice sheets arises from the non-linear rheology of the ice and steady-flow conditions. The resulting Raymond arches seen in radargrams have been associated with crystal orientation fabric (COF) that produces ice optical anisotropy, detectable with radar. We use data collected with a phase-sensitive radar across two ice rises, [...]
Global Power Outage Detection at the Kilometer Scale from Satellite Nighttime Lights
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Power and Energy, Public Health, Remote Sensing
Satellite nighttime light observations show great promise for remote sensing of power outages, yet have only been utilized in limited case studies to date. Here, we present generalized detection of power outages across the globe at ~1-kilometer resolution. Our method, the Outage frameWork for Luminosity Interruptions (OWL-I), reveals the power outages can be reliably detected from VIIRS/Black [...]
A Reduced-Order Dynamical Model for the Ignition of Diver-Induced Cohesive Silt-Out on Sloping Beds
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Dynamical Systems, Dynamic Systems, Non-linear Dynamics, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Ordinary Differential Equations and Applied Dynamics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A downward fin thrust near a cohesive seabed lofts sediment. Whether this cloud settles or organizes into a self-sustaining down-slope current determines if a diver loses visibility briefly or catastrophically. We reduce the layer-averaged balances of fluid mass, sediment mass, and momentum to a temporal slab of fixed thickness in the weakly entraining limit. This yields an autonomous planar [...]
A Quantitative Feasibility Model for Singapore Waste-to-Energy Ash as a Zeolitic Material Feedstock
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Engineering Science and Materials, Environmental Engineering, Materials Science and Engineering, Other Materials Science and Engineering
In Singapore’s waste management system, waste-to-energy ash is a major by-product but is viewed as a residue to be managed rather than a material resource. This paper examines whether Singapore waste-to-energy ash could be used as a feedstock for zeolitic material synthesis, when assessed through a quantitative feasibility model rather than a descriptive review. In this study a mathematical [...]