Preprints
There are 7713 Preprints listed.
Rare deglacial-aged corals point to weaker El Niño in a colder world
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Extreme El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have increased in frequency since the late 20th century, intensifying concerns about ENSO’s response to a changing climate and its far-reaching impacts on global weather. Yet climate model projections of future ENSO behaviour remain divergent, and simulations under past glacial boundary conditions likewise lack [...]
Ocean surface currents directly imaged from space
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
For more than four decades, satellite images of ocean temperature and colour have revealed jets, swirling eddies, and filaments. Yet the currents that shape these structures have never been directly imaged from space. This observational gap limits our understanding of the ocean's impact on climate and marine ecosystems, as these currents modulate exchanges between the coast and open ocean, [...]
A brief history of equifinality in hydrological modelling: from GST to GLUE to ML
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
AbstractEquifinality has shaped hydrological modelling for five decades. The equifinality thesis rejects the concept of an “optimal” model in favour of the possibility that different model structures or parameter sets can provide similarly acceptable representations of a system when uncertainties in the forcing and evaluation data are considered, especially when those data are subject to [...]
Rapid Source Constraints and Nodal-Plane-Robust Static Stress Transfer of the 24 September 2026 Mw 5.3–5.4 Şanlıurfa Earthquake, Southeastern Türkiye
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Risk Analysis
On 24 September 2026, a moderate earthquake occurred in southeastern Türkiye near the Hilvan–Karaköprü sector of Şanlıurfa Province. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported M 5.3 at 37.4736°N, 38.8612°E and 10 km depth, whereas the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Türkiye (AFAD) issued a rapid Mw 5.4 solution at a shallower and approximately 5.9 km displaced hypocenter. We [...]
Do public records document PFAS drinking-water response handoffs? A 51-jurisdiction audit
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Engineering
PFAS monitoring, assistance, and project records are often public, yet a reader may still be unable to trace a named response across administrative stages. We conducted a registered, frozen public-source audit of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The registered test documented 13/204 predeclared strict relationships; no later relationship met the rule. The audit shows when a public [...]
Geospatial Foundation Models for forest diversity mapping in structurally complex, species-rich forests
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Forest Sciences
Foundation-model satellite embeddings have been proposed as transferable, analysis-ready predictors for Earth Observation, yet their value for biodiversity mapping in forest ecosystems remained unclear. This study addresses three main methodological gaps as one of the first applications of foundation-model embeddings to forest diversity mapping in structurally complex forests: (i) a head-to-head [...]
Deep seismo-volcanic tremors constrain the magma supply from the mantle
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Volcanic eruptions are driven by magma supplied from the mantle, yet deep magmatic flux remains poorly constrained. Here we propose to quantify it based on deep seismic tremors. We adopt a model of tremor generation by rapid growth of gas bubbles in response to magma decompression and establish a physical relationship between the cumulative seismic moment and the volume of the ascending magma. By [...]
Escalating Heatwave Activity and Return Periods Across the Climatic Zones of Ghana
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Heatwaves are an increasing public health concern in West Africa, yet their characteristics and recurrence across Ghana’s climatic zones remain poorly quantified. Previous assessments in Ghana have largely focused on individual cities and percentile-based thresholds, which characterize extremes relative to the local climatology but do not explicitly account for recently experienced thermal [...]
The nonlinear effect of environmental regulations on urban green transformation in the Yellow River Basin
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Geography
In order to better achieve regional sustainable development, it is extremely important to explore the relationship between environmental regulation (ENR) and urban green transformation. Nonetheless, there is a dearth of research that examines the nonlinear relationship between the ENR and urban green transformation. Taking the Yellow River Basin (YERB) as a case study, this paper uses a panel [...]
What constitutes fine-scale geodiversity? Taxonomic geodiversity mapping across environmental gradients in a sub-Arctic mountain environment
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Geomorphology, Hydrology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Soil Science
The integration of geodiversity information, i.e., the diversity of abiotic features in the Earth surface and subsurface, into assessments of the sustainability and resilience of natural environments and ecosystems is increasingly considered important. However, geodiversity data is highly scale-dependent and there is an urgent need to find optimal ways on how geodiversity should be quantified and [...]
Pathogen releases due to inadequate wastewater treatment infrastructure in small-town Alabama
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Engineering, Public Health
Residents of the Alabama Black Belt lack safe and reliable wastewater treatment. Health risks of inadequate treatment are well-established, community-level contamination alone cannot characterize how sanitation failures translate into exposure risks, and few studies have identified pathogens associated with exposure. We surveyed of sanitation-related pathogen releases in a small town in Hale [...]
Co-production as a mechanism for long-term Nature-based Solution viability: evidence from urban biofilters in an informal settlement of the Global South
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Life Sciences
Assessing the long-term viability of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in vulnerable urban contexts remains a major methodological challenge. Existing assessment frameworks primarily emphasize technical performance while giving limited attention to physical device survival and the continuity of the socio-technical arrangements required to sustain interventions over time. This study develops and [...]
Subvolcanic magma pathways in transtensional regimes; AMS and structural evidence from SE Iceland
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study presents an integrated analysis of magmatic and tectonic strain data recorded within and around the Reyðarártindur intrusion, southeast Iceland, combining anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) with UAV-based fracture mapping. Thermomagnetic experiments and petrography confirm AMS fabrics capture magmatic-state strain, defining a consistent NNE–SSW magnetic lineation with [...]
A Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model for Site-Specific Tropical Cyclone Loss Quantification
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantifying the financial risk posed by landfalling tropical cyclones requires statistical methods that extend beyond the limits of a short and non-stationary historical observational record. This paper presents the mathematical formulation of an open, modular probabilistic catastrophe risk model for site-specific tropical cyclone loss estimation, structured around the four components used [...]
Evaluation of CMIP6 model performance against GHCND station observations across Asian cities
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Climate
Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are commonly used to infer future atmospheric temperatures across the world, including in Asia. This region is warming at an alarming rate, and home to some of the world's most populated countries and many of its most populated, fastest-growing and most heat-vulnerable cities. CMIP models are not always checked against local city-scale [...]