Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Hydroelectric Regulation Decouples Arctic Silica Delivery from the Diatom Bloom: A Climate-Independent Causal Attribution Across Twenty Subarctic Rivers
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large subarctic rivers deliver most of their dissolved nutrients during the spring freshet, in approximate phase with the ice-edge diatom bloom that those nutrients support. Hydroelectric regulation flattens the river hydrograph, holding back the freshet and raising winter discharge, and in doing so it redistributes nutrient delivery in time. Across twenty subarctic rivers spanning the Arctic [...]
Trapped Lee-Wave Resonance Determines Antarctic Megadune Wavelength
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Categorical Data Analysis, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Mineral Physics, Other Earth Sciences, Paleontology, Physics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Glaciology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Mineral Physics, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
Snow megadunes cover 5×105 km2 of the East Antarctic plateau, biasing surface mass balance estimates and overprinting ice-core signals—yet their 2–5 km wavelength has lacked a quantitative selection mechanism for two decades. We first falsify the standard formula λ∗ = 2πU0/N through a calibration-free spatial test: eight REMA 2 m tiles across two independent locations at 81.5–82.0°S show no [...]
First Observational Evidence That Biological Giant CCN Control Urban Rainfall Character: A Natural Experiment from Islamabad's Paper Mulberry Removal
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology
Modeling studies predict that biological aerosol, specifically pollen acting as giant cloud condensation nuclei (GCCN), can modify precipitation character by initiating collision-coalescence and warm rain in shallow cloud (Steiner et al., 2015; Wozniak et al., 2018; Paukert et al., 2025). No observational study has tested this prediction. We exploit a natural experiment, the removal of ~29,000 [...]
Role of Fault Geometry in Generating Backward-migrating P-wave Radiation During the 2025 Mw 7.7 Myanmar Earthquake
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
The Mw 7.7 Myanmar earthquake of 28 March 2025 ruptured the Sagaing Fault system over ~450 km and exhibited complex rupture behavior, including intermittent supershear propagation and backward-migrating high-frequency (HF) P-wave radiation. We image the rupture evolution using multi-frequency teleseismic P-wave back-projection (BP) (0.05–0.5, 0.1–1.0, and 0.3–2.0 Hz) and compare the results with [...]
Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Check-Dam Height Effects on Downstream Debris-Flow Depth for Structural Countermeasure Scenarios
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis
Check dams can influence debris-flow propagation, but their effects may depend on location, height, and local topographic conditions. This study evaluates the sensitivity of downstream debris-flow depth to check-dam height scenarios using numerical simulations of a mountainous catchment in Atami, Japan. Six hypothetical check-dam locations were placed along the torrent, and 4,877 valid cases were [...]
Stochastic Inversion of geophysical data by sequential Bayesian updating under a non-stationary Gaussian process prior
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Statistics and Probability
The acquisition of geophysical data is becoming increasingly important in the context of critical mineral exploration. Geophysical data and inversion product are essential to map many components of the critical mineral system by detecting geophysical anomalies that can be interpreted by expert geologists. However, the inversion of airborne geophysical data acquired along flightlines into [...]
Petrogenic Carbon Oxidation and Its Impact on the Carbon Balance in the Ganga River Basin
Published: 2026-05-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Based on sampling and investigation spanning several years, we conduct a comprehensive assessment of petrogenic organic carbon (OCpetro) oxidation and evaluate the net carbon budget in the Ganga–Hooghly River (GHR) basin, extending from the Himalayan mountainous catchments to the floodplains in India. Our multi-proxy approach combines data on rhenium (Re) concentrations, radiocarbon (pMC), stable [...]
Multidimensional Inconsistency in Forest Ecosystem Representation: An NLP-Assisted Thematic Review
Published: 2026-05-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography
Forest ecosystem monitoring increasingly relies on multisensor remote sensing approaches integrating optical imagery, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), and LiDAR observations to assess biomass, degradation, and ecosystem condition. However, these systems frequently generate inconsistent representations of the same ecosystem due to differences in sensor sensitivity, ecological complexity, scale [...]
Geodynamic Model Description for Ptolemy’s Germania Magna
Published: 2026-05-13
Subjects: Analysis, Astrophysics and Astronomy, Dynamical Systems, Dynamic Systems, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Other Applied Mathematics, Other Astrophysics and Astronomy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Planetary Sciences, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure, The Sun and the Solar System, Volcanology
This model proposes that the well-documented geodynamic and climatic disruption of the 6th century AD involved a reactivation of the ancient Caledonian Deformation Front (CDF) and the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ), most likely triggered by cosmic events in the form of impacts or airbursts. Large-scale inversion tectonics, driven by Alpine compressive forces, are argued to have caused [...]
Orthomagmatic Ni-Cu-Au-PGE mineralisation in Ireland and Northern Ireland: A review of historic exploration and future prospectivity
Published: 2026-05-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology
Platinum group elements (PGEs) are essential constituents in established and emerging green technologies, yet European supply is dominated by a small number of very large deposits, necessitating the identification of alternative domestic sources. Most economic mineralisation is associated with orthomagmatic Ni-Cu-Au-PGE systems, where chalcophile elements are concentrated within sulphide minerals [...]
Current deformation in Hispaniola from InSAR--derived surface velocities
Published: 2026-05-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The oblique convergence between the Caribbean and North American plates is accommodated, in Hispaniola, by left-lateral strike-slip on two major left--lateral fault systems and by intra-arc shortening. We apply a Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSInSAR) approach to Sentinel-1 data using six tracks acquired between 2016 and 2023 to generate time series of interseismic velocities over the [...]
Reassessing long-term exhumation rates in magmatic terranes
Published: 2026-05-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Tectonics and Structure
Crustal exhumation is central to mountain building, weathering, and sediment production processes, which significantly influence the composition and behavior of Earth’s oceans and atmosphere. It also controls the formation, enrichment, and preservation of porphyry copper deposits, which are a vital source of metals for the clean energy technologies underpinning the global green energy transition. [...]
TiMEpy: A Python Package for Analyzing Tidal Modulation of Fast and Slow Earthquakes
Published: 2026-05-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Due to interactions between the solid Earth and tidal forces, the crust experiences continuous stress perturbations. Understanding how earthquakes respond to tidal stresses provides unique insights into the mechanisms governing earthquake nucleation. Here, we present TiMEpy, an open-source Python package designed to detect tidal modulation in both fast and slow earthquakes. TiMEpy includes [...]
Adaptive Model Parameter Estimation Triggered by the Beneficial Observation Rate from Forecast Sensitivity to Observations
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In NWP, the assimilation of various observations contributes to improving forecast accuracy. The contribution of each observation can be estimated by existing methods. Empirically, it is well known that only a fraction of assimilated observations are diagnosed as beneficial, meaning that they improve forecast accuracy. Previous studies have indicated that the beneficial observation rate depends [...]
Extreme Heat and Rainfall Risk Attributed to Cumulative CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Producers
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Legal and political approaches to climate accountability require demonstrating that a particular emitter contributed to a climate impact, but quantitative solutions to this attribution challenge remain nascent. This study leverages the proportionality of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions to develop statistical models that directly predict extreme climate risk from cumulative emissions. [...]