Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Geophysics and Seismology
Comment on Rodríguez Collantes et al. A New Earth Crustal Velocity Field Estimation from ROA cGNSS Station Networks in the South of Spain and North Africa. Remote Sens. 2025, 17, 704
Published: 2026-01-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
In their recent study, Rodríguez Collantes et al. presented a new GNSS velocity field from the Royal Institute and Observatory of the Spanish Navy (ROA) network, deployed in southern Spain and northern Africa. However, their claims regarding the novelty of certain results and the precision of their findings compared to recent publications are questionable. I present previous studies not cited by [...]
High-resolution seismic reservoir monitoring with multitask and transfer learning
Published: 2026-01-02
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computational Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Sustainability
High-resolution real-time monitoring of reservoir changes is essential during CO2 injection or hydrocarbon production. Here, we leverage convolutional neural networks (CNNs) that employ multitask (MTL) and transfer (TL) learning to accurately predict relevant reservoir parameters from time-lapse seismic data. CNNs are initially trained to estimate the P-wave velocity from 2D multicomponent [...]
Liquefaction as an energetic instability of saturated granular systems – Density control and static enthalpy equilibrium
Published: 2025-12-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology, Geotechnical Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Materials Science and Engineering, Mining Engineering, Other Materials Science and Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
Liquefaction of saturated granular materials is commonly interpreted within stress-based frameworks that rely on the existence of an intact grain skeleton. At the onset of liquefaction, however, the contact network collapses and effective stress ceases to be a meaningful state variable. This work reformulates liquefaction as an enthalpy-driven instability of the coupled grain–water system and [...]
Large Earthquakes: a Way of Formation and Prediction
Published: 2025-12-26
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
It is believed that the accumulation of small fractures (small earthquakes) in the crust is one of many ways for the formation of large fractures (large earthquakes). In such cases, the temporal variations in the accumulation number of small earthquakes can be used to predict future seismic activity in the region. To do so, a structural system of the crust is constructed using the logarithmic [...]
Gutenberg-Richter-type earthquake size distributions: maximum likelihood estimation, unbiased estimation, and Bayesian forecasting
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Characterizing earthquake size distributions using the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law is ubiquitous in seismology. According to the GR law, earthquake magnitudes follow an exponential distribution, with a rate parameter commonly represented by the b-value. For many applications, including seismic hazard and risk assessment, estimating the b-value is therefore a common procedure. However, the [...]
Large-scale rotational extension triggered basin formation in interior East Antarctica
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Tectonics and Structure
Recent sub-ice topography investigations have imaged with greatly improved detail a set of enigmatic low-elevation V-shaped basins hidden beneath a very large sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we show that these basins form a semi-continental sized fan shaped physiographic unit which radiates from a pin point near the South Pole and name it the East Antarctic Fan-shaped Basin Province. [...]
Joint Rock Physics Inversion and Basin Modeling for Comprehensive Source Rock Characterization
Published: 2025-12-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
This study presents an integrated workflow that combines statistical rock physics inversion with Monte Carlo basin modeling to comprehensively quantify source rock properties and their uncertainties. First, well-log and seismically-derived elastic properties are used in a statistical rock physics inversion to estimate porosity, kerogen content, and mineral fractions. These posterior distributions [...]
Tandem: An Open-Source High-Performance Computing Volumetric Software to Model Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip Across Complex Fault Systems
Published: 2025-12-11
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Simulating sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on realistic fault systems provides a physical framework to understand the evolution of the seismic cycle, but remains computationally expensive. Volumetric approaches offer the physical flexibility to handle complex geometries and heterogeneous off-fault media but may incur prohibitively high computational costs when applied to the [...]
Multi-Planar Hierarchy in Pan-American Seismic Fractality: A Bayesian Resolution to the Projection Paradox
Published: 2025-12-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Earthquake catalogs worldwide exhibit an enduring paradox: seismicity appears confined to planar faults (correlation dimension D2≈ 2.0), yet operates within volumetric lithospheric deformation. We resolve this paradox through Bayesian fractal analysis of 50,010 earthquakes across seven Pan-American tectonic regimes (2010–2025), revealing that apparent planarity reflects instrumental projection [...]
The role of the Hikurangi subduction interface in enabling Kaikōura-like earthquakes: Insights from synthetic earthquake catalogues
Published: 2025-12-10
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
A well-known problem in seismic hazard is the short duration of the historical record relative to the time between large earthquakes. This short record means that not all possible earthquakes have been observed, and that the statistics of earthquake recurrence intervals and magnitudes are poorly constrained. These issues are particularly acute for earthquakes involving multiple faults, such as [...]
Sequential Efficacy of Information for Optimized Geophysical and Drilling Strategies in Mineral Exploration
Published: 2025-12-06
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mining Engineering
The global energy transition has created an urgent need for expanded critical mineral supply. Projected production from existing deposits and current discovery rates remains insufficient to meet this demand. More efficient exploration strategies are therefore required, particularly in optimizing costly and low-success data acquisition campaigns. To address this challenge, we introduce the concept [...]
Source effects in higher-order ambient seismic field correlations
Published: 2025-12-05
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Seismic interferometry of the ambient seismic field is widely used for surface wave imaging. It typically requires synchronous station recordings and assumes uniform noise source distributions. Higher-order correlations, such as the re-correlation of direct waves (C2), have been suggested to facilitate imaging with asynchronous data and to improve an incomplete source distribution. Using field [...]
Exacerbation of levee failure with climate change: Insights from ERT monitoring
Published: 2025-12-03
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Climate change is bringing hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, intensifying winter floods and causing larger seasonal variations in soil moisture. These shifts place increasing stress on levees – many of which were constructed decades or centuries ago – making their current performance challenging to assess. Levee performance depends on limiting water ingress, as increased seepage [...]
Hybrid Neural PDE and Conditional GAN Framework for Sparse Co₂ Plume Prediction.
Published: 2025-12-03
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Digital twin architectures for geological carbon storage demand uncertainty-aware surrogates capable of rapid plume forecasting under extreme data scarcity. Traditional physics-based simulators are computationally expensive; pure data-driven models lack principled uncertainty quantification. This work presents a hybrid Neural Posterior Density Estimation–Conditional GAN (NPDE-CCGAN) framework [...]
Foreshock Behaviors and Mainshock Rupture Properties Associated with the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake Sequence
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The July 29 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake ruptured the plate interface off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula along the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Following the mainshock, tsunamis were recorded in multiple countries along the Pacific Ocean boundary and its islands, along with the eruption of several volcanoes in Kamchatka. The mainshock was preceded by a strong foreshock sequence [...]