Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The influence of historical sea-surface temperature patterns on regional precipitation trends
Published: 2025-08-06
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
State-of-the-art coupled global climate models (GCMs) fail to simulate key features of observed seasonal precipitation trends since 1980, including drying of the southwestern US, the southeastern US, East Africa, and subtropical South America, as well as wetting of the Maritime Continent and the Amazon. They also fail to simulate the sea-level pressure (SLP) trends since 1980 associated with a [...]
Future Sea Ice-Ocean and Biological Productivity Changes in the North Water Polynya Region under Policy Relevant Warming Levels
Published: 2025-07-30
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The North Water Polynya (NOW) is one of the most productive biological regions in the Arctic with high importance to Inuit and local communities of Nunavut and Greenland. To provide insights into the potential changes of this region as global temperatures rise, we investigated the sea ice, and physical and biological oceanic responses of the NOW to low (2 °C) and high (3.5 °C) levels of warming [...]
Understanding historical and projected compound change on the Northwest Atlantic shelf
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are accompanied by ocean acidification, oxygen loss, and warming of the global ocean. However, in coastal environments, local processes that occur on small spatial scales can moderate or exacerbate these trends. These processes are not well represented in global climate models. Therefore, downscaled tools are useful to decipher carbonate system [...]
Good Fire Weather
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Extreme fire weather receives substantial attention, yet conditions allowing readily manageable fire, or "good fire weather" remain less studied with no formal definition. We propose a qualitative definition of good fire weather as "the set of atmospheric conditions before, during, and following ignition allowing wildland fire to achieve beneficial outcomes while minimizing hazards from fire and [...]
Analysis of Long-term Trends and Variability of Sea Surface Chlorophyll-a and Temperature in The Northern Papua Sea, Indonesia
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Chlorophyll-a serves as an important proxy for marine ecological productivity, and its dynamics playing pivotal role in the marine productivity, especially within the coral biodiversity hotspot such as Coral Triangle’s Northern Papua Sea (NPS). Consequently, elucidating the dynamics in such region is essential. This work aims to investigate the long-term trends and variability of the sea surface [...]
A new method of assessing Climate Sensitivity.
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Sciences
Abstract— The IPCC regards carbon dioxide as the most relevant driver of climate warming and their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) refines this to a likely range of 2.5°C to 4.0°C and a very likely range of 2.0°C to 5.0°C for climate sensitivity to a doubling of present levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Since this is a very large range the need exists to find a method to better quantify climate [...]
Regional Responses to Oceanic Variability Constrain Global Drought Synchrony
Published: 2025-07-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Synchronized droughts threaten global food security, with concerns about increased frequency and duration under climate change. However, their long-term evolution and physical limits remain unknown. We analyze 61 drought networks over 120 years (1901–2020) of scPDSI data, employing a suite of network synchronization measures and empirical orthogonal functions to unravel the physical drivers and [...]
Aquascan: Graph-Based Learning for Distributed Marine Sensing
Published: 2025-07-04
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Marine monitoring faces unprecedented challenges as climate change and human activities reshape ocean ecosystems. Traditional tracking methods struggle with the scale and complexity of modern marine sensing needs. This paper proposes distributed networks of low-cost drifting sensors and presents a comparative study of heterogeneous graph neural networks (GNNs) versus Kalman filters for predicting [...]
An explainable machine learning prediction system for early-warning of heat stress on Florida’s Coral Reef
Published: 2025-06-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Marine Biology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coral reefs are facing increasing threats from rising ocean temperatures, necessitating timely and localized prediction tools to inform reef management and conservation. This study introduces a machine learning framework capable of forecasting the onset of moderate coral heat stress at site-specific resolution on Florida’s Coral Reef. Leveraging the XGBoost algorithm, the data-driven prediction [...]
New methods for predicting the start and other features of the UK (Northern Hemisphere) Sporadic E (Es) radio propagation season
Published: 2025-06-22
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The sporadic E mode of propagation is briefly described and reviewed. The question is posed could we ever predict the start and duration of the main propagation season. A new hypothesis is proposed based on the modulation of planetary weather and wave circulations and their effect on the Es
Deep Learning for Ionogram Parameter Extraction: A Time-Series Approach to Ionospheric Monitoring
Published: 2025-06-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Ionograms provide a direct measurement of the ionosphere’s electron density profile and its irregularities. By examining critical frequencies researchers can identify key parameters—such as the F region critical frequency (foF2), the height of maximum electron density (hmF2), and the presence of Spread F irregularities—that are vital for understanding signal propagation, space weather effects, [...]
Putting the Meteors back in Meteorology
Published: 2025-06-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The effects of three extra-terrestrial drivers on UK weather and short-term climate are considered namely, meteor showers, solar flux and GCR on the interdecadal climate in the UK. At least in the study period, these are seen to be in control with no evidence of warming. The UK temperature anomaly can be accounted for by a simple algorithm. In the UK in the inter-decadal period 2005-2011 [...]
Confirming that Modern Global Warming is Predominantly Geomagnetically Driven and Seeking other Drivers by Employing Latitudinal bands.
Published: 2025-06-10
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The hypothesis that most of modern warming is geomagnetically driven is tested and shown to be correct. Models employing single and multiple geomagnetic parameters including both North and South Dip Pole positions, Tilt and Dipole Strength are developed and tested. Pole movement with accompanying changs in Tilt and Dipole strength changes particle precipitation, changes cloud, lowers albedo [...]
Validation and Metrics for Emissions Detection by Satellite
Published: 2025-05-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Detecting and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from individual sites by satellite remote sensing has emerged as a powerful new method in recent years. As more and more players enter the field, based on a variety of technologies for both instrumentation and data processing, there is a need for standardized methods for evaluating the performance of these systems. This document is focused on the [...]
The Mesozoic Conundrum: Global Albedo Factors Resolve the Lack of Correlation Between Temperatures and CO2 Concentrations.
Published: 2025-05-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Plant Sciences
The "Mesozoic Conundrum" refers to the lack of correlation between CO₂ atmospheric concentration and global mean surface temperatures in Mesozoic climate reconstructions (Judd et al., 2024). Here, I show that Mesozoic forest cover, proxied by carbon burial flux (Nelsen et al., 2016), correlates strongly (R²=0.88, p<0.01) with GMST across the Mesozoic (252–66 Ma before present). The analysis [...]