Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Pycnocline Stratification Shapes Submesoscale Vertical Tracer Transport
Published: 2024-11-08
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Pycnocline stratification is increasing across multiple ocean basins due to a warming surface ocean and increasing sea ice melt. Pycnocline stratification plays a leading order role in tracer transport, shaping capacity for heat and carbon uptake, making it a key parameter of interest on timescales ranging from paleoclimate to plankton blooms. Part of the challenge in assessing the role of [...]
Computational Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Inflows Using Remote Sensing and SWAT: A Case Study of Ban Chat Reservoir, Northern Vietnam
Published: 2024-10-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study examines the changes in land cover and three water quality indicators (chlorophyll-a, colored dissolved organic matter, turbidity) using Sentinel-2 imagery in the Ban Chat hydropower area in Northern Vietnam during the period of 2016--2024. To assess the potential impact of flood flows into the Ban Chat reservoir, key information is extracted from remote sensing data, which is the [...]
The Role of Islands in Sea Ice Transport Through Nares Strait
Published: 2024-09-19
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Nares Strait is a major pathway from the Arctic Ocean and an important climate system component. Sea ice's granular nature is pertinent in such straits with small islands where floes propagate by fracturing upon collisions. Since climate models are relatively coarse and use continuous sea ice rheology, they only partially capture the complexities of floe interactions. We use a floe-scale model, [...]
Half of anthropogenic warming now caused by fossil fuels
Published: 2024-09-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Many human activities influence the climate, such as burning fossil fuels, clearing land, growing food, and using refrigerants. Among these, fossil fuels have long been considered the primary driver of global warming. Here, the impact of fossil fuels on historical warming is reassessed using a climate emulator ensemble that accounts for key uncertainties. This reveals that, until the 2020s, [...]
Evidence supporting a broader than previously thought influence of solar activity over Earth system’s processes. Discussion of a possible mechanism.
Published: 2024-09-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
In this article, I show lines of evidence supporting a modulation of volcanic activity and some weather phenomena by solar wind conditions in the near-Earth environment. On a daily timescale, a correlation is found between the LP earthquake activity of Kilauea volcano, related to magma transport, and the Bx component of the interplanetary magnetic field as measured in the OMNI database for [...]
Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions caused by weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive North Atlantic jet biases
Published: 2024-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Long-range winter predictions over the Euro-Atlantic sector have demonstrated significant skill but suffer from systematic signal-to-noise errors. In this study we examine early winter seasonal predictability in 16 state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems. Models demonstrate skill in the hindcasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in early winter, which mostly projects onto the East [...]
Two-dimensional Ekman-Inertial Instability: A comparison with Inertial Instability
Published: 2024-08-29
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the ocean, submesoscale flows tend to undergo several hydrodynamic instabilities. In particular, Inertial Instability (InI) and Ekman-Inertial Instability (EII) are known to develop in geostrophically balanced barotropic flows whose lateral shear is larger in magnitude and opposite in sign to the Coriolis parameter. Although these instabilities share some elements, their dynamical nature can [...]
A Phenology-Dependent Analysis for Identifying Key Drought Indicators for Crop Yield based on Causal Inference and Information Theory
Published: 2024-08-29
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Drought indicators, which are quantitative measurements of drought severity and duration, are used to monitor and predict the risk and effects of drought, particularly in relation to the sustainability of agriculture and water supplies. This research uses causal inference and information theory to discover the drought index, which is the most efficient indicator for agricultural productivity and [...]
A global C-staggered composite model for shallow water equations 1 with latitude-longitude grid and reductions in the polar regions
Published: 2024-08-08
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To develop a numerical method for global geophysical fluids, we usually need to choose a spherical grid and numerical approximations to represent the partial derivative equations. Some alternatives include the use of finite differences or finite volumes with latitude-longitude or reduced grids. Each of these cases has some advantages and also some limitations. This paper presents a comparison [...]
TROPICAL STORM SURGE: FORMATION, IMPACT, AND RECENT ADVANCES IN ITS PREDICTION TOWARDS DEVELOPING MITIGATION STRATEGIES
Published: 2024-07-19
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Planetary Sciences
Tropical storm surge poses significant risks to coastal areas, necessitating precise prediction for effective emergency preparedness and mitigation. Recent advances in numerical models such as SLOSH, ADCIRC, and FVCOM have revolutionized storm surge forecasting by accurately simulating complex hydrodynamic processes, bolstered by ADCIRC's use of high-resolution grids and parallel computing for [...]
Global distribution and governing dynamics of submesoscale density fronts
Published: 2024-07-11
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
State-dependency of dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to effective precipitation changes
Published: 2024-06-26
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Reliable projections of the future hydrological cycle are needed for designing adaptation and mitigation measures under global warming. However, uncertainties in the projected sign and magnitude of effective precipitation changes (precipitation minus evaporation, P-E) remain high. Here, we examine the state-dependency of circulation, temperature, and relative humidity contributions to P-E changes [...]
How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments Respond to Climate Change?
Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Here we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United States: Hurricanes Floyd (1999), Matthew (2016), and Florence (2018). While these storms were impactful when they occurred, how might the impacts of similar [...]
A model of near-sea ice phytoplankton blooms
Published: 2024-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Arctic spring blooms of phytoplankton mark the annual emergence of the region’s ecosystem from winter dormancy. Satellite observations show that these blooms have increased in size and magnitude in recent years. While this may be expected to be a result of generally warmer conditions, it has been found that near-ice blooms are spatially correlated with cold and fresh surface water [...]
Global Warming is Industrially Suppressed Middle-School Science
Published: 2024-05-15
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 15\% of the American public that denies global warming probably used middle-school science texts in which the topic was omitted at the behest of Big Oil. We attempt to remedy this with a simple explanation of the process, in which the 33°C difference between the Stefan-Bolzmann astrophysical -18°C temperature of the solar-heated planet and the Weather Bureau's comfortable 15°C sea-level [...]