Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Gaia, revisited: atmospheric carbon dioxide as a symptom of a vegetation ozone driven climate cycle
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A synoptic analysis of the history of climate science introduces all potential climate drivers. It is demonstrated that the Keeling curve can be seen to reflect yearly ocean CO2 emission minus yearly ocean CO2 uptake. It is also shown that the global carbon equation (GCE), at the foundation of present day climate models is not an equilibrium. This disequilibrium pertains to the neglect of the [...]
Joint effects of submesoscale lateral dispersion and biological reactions on biogeochemical flux
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Submesoscale dynamics, operating at spatial scales of O(1−10 km) and temporal scales of O(1 day), are particularly important for marine ecosystems as they occur on similar timescales as phytoplankton growth, enabling biophysical feedbacks. While submesoscale dynamics are known to impact biological fluxes by modifying nutrient upwelling, horizontal transport has traditionally been assumed to only [...]
Climate-Induced Sea-Level Rise Implications on Archaeological Taonga at Te Pokohiwi ō Kupe – The Wairau Bar, Aotearoa New Zealand
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The northwest portion of Te Pokohiwi ō Kupe (the Wairau Bar) in the Marlborough Region is where one of Aotearoa New Zealand’s earliest archaeological heritage sites dating back to the early 1300’s is located. This paper describes a baseline study to map the effects of present-day and future sea-levels on archaeological heritage land at Te Pokohiwi ō Kupe. Results suggest that approximately 20% of [...]
Machine Learning Predicts Pedestrian Wind Flow from Urban Morphology and Prevailing Wind Direction
Published: 2024-11-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Pedestrian-level wind plays a critical role in shaping the urban microclimate and is significantly influenced by urban form and geometry. The most common method for determining spatial wind speed patterns in cities relies on numerical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, which resolve Navier-Stokes equations around buildings. While effective, these simulations are computationally [...]
Oceanic Alkalinity and Titration Alkalinity: a novel straightforward approach in keeping with common general chemistry
Published: 2024-11-29
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
We present novel exact concepts of Oceanic Alkalinity and Titration Alkalinity that are in keeping with common chemistry. Oceanic Alkalinity is the small difference of the sum of charges of strong cations and the sum of charges of strong anions in seawater. This difference is compensated by the sum of charges of the weak anions minus the sum of charges of the weak cations. Titration Alkalinity [...]
Decoding sub-seasonal predictors of extreme heat with interpretable machine learning
Published: 2024-11-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
As climate change accelerates, heat waves are becoming more frequent, intense, and deadly. Enhancing forecasting capabilities through a better understanding of sub-seasonal predictors of extreme heat is crucial for adaptation efforts. This study utilizes an interpretable machine learning model, implementing Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to evaluate [...]
Pycnocline Stratification Shapes Submesoscale Vertical Tracer Transport
Published: 2024-11-08
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Pycnocline stratification is increasing across multiple ocean basins due to a warming surface ocean and increasing sea ice melt. Pycnocline stratification plays a leading order role in tracer transport, shaping capacity for heat and carbon uptake, making it a key parameter of interest on timescales ranging from paleoclimate to plankton blooms. Part of the challenge in assessing the role of [...]
Computational Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Inflows Using Remote Sensing and SWAT: A Case Study of Ban Chat Reservoir, Northern Vietnam
Published: 2024-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study examines the changes in land cover and three water quality indicators (chlorophyll-a, colored dissolved organic matter, turbidity) using Sentinel-2 imagery in the Ban Chat hydropower area in Northern Vietnam during the period of 2016--2024. To assess the potential impact of flood flows into the Ban Chat reservoir, key information is extracted from remote sensing data, which is the [...]
The Role of Islands in Sea Ice Transport Through Nares Strait
Published: 2024-09-19
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Nares Strait is a major pathway from the Arctic Ocean and an important climate system component. Sea ice's granular nature is pertinent in such straits with small islands where floes propagate by fracturing upon collisions. Since climate models are relatively coarse and use continuous sea ice rheology, they only partially capture the complexities of floe interactions. We use a floe-scale model, [...]
Half of anthropogenic warming now caused by fossil fuels
Published: 2024-09-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Many human activities influence the climate, such as burning fossil fuels, clearing land, growing food, and using refrigerants. Among these, fossil fuels have long been considered the primary driver of global warming. Here, the impact of fossil fuels on historical warming is reassessed using a climate emulator ensemble that accounts for key uncertainties. This reveals that, until the 2020s, [...]
Evidence supporting a broader than previously thought influence of solar activity over Earth system’s processes. Discussion of a possible mechanism.
Published: 2024-09-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
In this article, I show lines of evidence supporting a modulation of volcanic activity and some weather phenomena by solar wind conditions in the near-Earth environment. On a daily timescale, a correlation is found between the LP earthquake activity of Kilauea volcano, related to magma transport, and the Bx component of the interplanetary magnetic field as measured in the OMNI database for [...]
Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions caused by weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive North Atlantic jet biases
Published: 2024-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Long-range winter predictions over the Euro-Atlantic sector have demonstrated significant skill but suffer from systematic signal-to-noise errors. In this study we examine early winter seasonal predictability in 16 state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems. Models demonstrate skill in the hindcasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in early winter, which mostly projects onto the East [...]
Two-dimensional Ekman-Inertial Instability: A comparison with Inertial Instability
Published: 2024-08-29
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the ocean, submesoscale flows tend to undergo several hydrodynamic instabilities. In particular, Inertial Instability (InI) and Ekman-Inertial Instability (EII) are known to develop in geostrophically balanced barotropic flows whose lateral shear is larger in magnitude and opposite in sign to the Coriolis parameter. Although these instabilities share some elements, their dynamical nature can [...]
A Phenology-Dependent Analysis for Identifying Key Drought Indicators for Crop Yield based on Causal Inference and Information Theory
Published: 2024-08-29
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Drought indicators, which are quantitative measurements of drought severity and duration, are used to monitor and predict the risk and effects of drought, particularly in relation to the sustainability of agriculture and water supplies. This research uses causal inference and information theory to discover the drought index, which is the most efficient indicator for agricultural productivity and [...]
A global C-staggered composite model for shallow water equations 1 with latitude-longitude grid and reductions in the polar regions
Published: 2024-08-08
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To develop a numerical method for global geophysical fluids, we usually need to choose a spherical grid and numerical approximations to represent the partial derivative equations. Some alternatives include the use of finite differences or finite volumes with latitude-longitude or reduced grids. Each of these cases has some advantages and also some limitations. This paper presents a comparison [...]