Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Tropical cyclone risk to global electricity supply
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis
To analyse the risks from Tropical Cyclones (TC) to electricity supply, we have combined a large ensemble of TC simulations with a spatial model of power networks and people served, for the entire TC belt globally. The model of electricity power failure, measured in terms of population disrupted, was calibrated against nighttime lights satellite imagery of historic TC events. Use of spatially [...]
Added value of a priori bias correcting dynamically downscaled data for application to species distribution models - a case study for coastal British Columbia
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Predicting changes in species distributions under climate change relies on high-quality climate projections. In this case study of coastal British Columbia, we prepare and evaluate two sets of climate data - a priori bias corrected and non bias corrected dynamically downscaled historical projections of Community Earth System Model 2 simulations. We compare these datasets with downscaled ERA5 [...]
Relation of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with observed and predicted ENSO indices
Published: 2025-09-08
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences global climate variability, including Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The Niño-3.4 index has long been used to characterize ENSO. However, new ENSO indices have been proposed in recent years. Here, in the context of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, we compared Niño-3.4 to three modern ENSO indices: the relative Niño-3.4 index, the ENSO [...]
Some new Models of Earth’s Temperature Anomaly across various Epochs Predicting Present Warming with Ice Age Validity Testing and a Data set Bias examination.
Published: 2025-08-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The need for methods to assess earth’s temperature anomaly are briefly discussed together with shortcomings of existing climate models. The geomagnetic or Pole shift method of climate sensitivity is briefly reviewed. The hypothesis that the previous two warm periods shared a common driver is tested and proven. Granger causality tests have been made and indicate that Pole Shift is the driver of [...]
Redefining Uncertainty: A Complete Bayesian Workflow for Ocean Color Remote Sensing
Published: 2025-08-28
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Marine Biology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences
Traditional satellite ocean color algorithms for chlorophyll-a and inherent optical property retrieval rely on deterministic regression models that typically produce single-point predictions without explicit uncertainty quantification. The absence of uncertainty awareness undermines in-situ/model match-ups, reduces predictive reliability, and ultimately erodes user confidence. In the present [...]
Decadal Trends in Seasonal Climatic Variables in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: A Non-Parametric Approach Using the Mann-Kendall Test
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Background Coastal urban cities like Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, are increasingly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate variability, including urban flooding, heat stress, and changes in water availability. Understanding the evolution of key climatic variables over time is essential for supporting adaptive strategies and sustainable urban development. Methods This study analyzed decadal [...]
High-Resolution Simulation of the Urban Heat Island Effect in Grenoble During the 2018 Heatwave: Evaluating WRF Model Configurations
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
This study investigates the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Grenoble, France, during the August 2018 heatwave, using high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations at 111 meters. The objective is to evaluate at this resolution the capac- ity of different WRF urban parameterizations such as the Building Effect Parameterization (BEP) and Building Energy Model (BEM), to [...]
The Grand Challenges of WPI-AIMEC: Executive Summary
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Biodiversity, Biology, Climate, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Marine Biology, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Remote Sensing, Sustainability
The ocean has a heat capacity 1,000 times greater than that of the atmosphere and stores 50 times more carbon comparatively, thus, constituting a major sink of anthropogenically released greenhouse gases. Warming effects of human activities on the climate system are now undeniably shown to impact marine life and ecosystems, both directly via warming of the ocean and/or indirectly altering ocean [...]
The influence of historical sea-surface temperature patterns on regional precipitation trends
Published: 2025-08-06
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
State-of-the-art coupled global climate models (GCMs) fail to simulate key features of observed seasonal precipitation trends since 1980, including drying of the southwestern US, the southeastern US, East Africa, and subtropical South America, as well as wetting of the Maritime Continent and the Amazon. They also fail to simulate the sea-level pressure (SLP) trends since 1980 associated with a [...]
Future Sea Ice-Ocean and Biological Productivity Changes in the North Water Polynya Region under Policy Relevant Warming Levels
Published: 2025-07-30
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The North Water Polynya (NOW) is one of the most productive biological regions in the Arctic with high importance to Inuit and local communities of Nunavut and Greenland. To provide insights into the potential changes of this region as global temperatures rise, we investigated the sea ice, and physical and biological oceanic responses of the NOW to low (2 °C) and high (3.5 °C) levels of warming [...]
Understanding historical and projected compound change on the Northwest Atlantic shelf
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are accompanied by ocean acidification, oxygen loss, and warming of the global ocean. However, in coastal environments, local processes that occur on small spatial scales can moderate or exacerbate these trends. These processes are not well represented in global climate models. Therefore, downscaled tools are useful to decipher carbonate system [...]
Good Fire Weather
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Extreme fire weather receives substantial attention, yet conditions allowing readily manageable fire, or "good fire weather" remain less studied with no formal definition. We propose a qualitative definition of good fire weather as "the set of atmospheric conditions before, during, and following ignition allowing wildland fire to achieve beneficial outcomes while minimizing hazards from fire and [...]
Analysis of Long-term Trends and Variability of Sea Surface Chlorophyll-a and Temperature in The Northern Papua Sea, Indonesia
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Chlorophyll-a serves as an important proxy for marine ecological productivity, and its dynamics playing pivotal role in the marine productivity, especially within the coral biodiversity hotspot such as Coral Triangle’s Northern Papua Sea (NPS). Consequently, elucidating the dynamics in such region is essential. This work aims to investigate the long-term trends and variability of the sea surface [...]
A new method of assessing Climate Sensitivity.
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Sciences
Abstract— The IPCC regards carbon dioxide as the most relevant driver of climate warming and their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) refines this to a likely range of 2.5°C to 4.0°C and a very likely range of 2.0°C to 5.0°C for climate sensitivity to a doubling of present levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Since this is a very large range the need exists to find a method to better quantify climate [...]
Regional Responses to Oceanic Variability Constrain Global Drought Synchrony
Published: 2025-07-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Synchronized droughts threaten global food security, with concerns about increased frequency and duration under climate change. However, their long-term evolution and physical limits remain unknown. We analyze 61 drought networks over 120 years (1901–2020) of scPDSI data, employing a suite of network synchronization measures and empirical orthogonal functions to unravel the physical drivers and [...]