Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Recent rise of water levels of Lake Nakuru, Kenya: Unraveling the Changing Precipitation Regime and its Climatic Drivers
Published: 2025-01-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The Kenyan Rift Valley has experienced an abrupt and significant rise in its lake levels since 2010, followed by a more rapid rise since 2020. This paper examines the dynamic changes in precipitation patterns and their climatic drivers in the Kenyan Rift Valley region from 1981 to 2021, focusing on Lake Nakuru. Notably, in 2010, a pivotal change point in precipitation aligns with the rising water [...]
Extra-polar cloud feedbacks as a driver of Arctic amplification
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Human emissions continue to influence Earth's climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth's energy balance (Soden et al. 2018; Gregory et al. 2020; Forster et al. 2021, 2024). Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating [...]
Monthly Sea-Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Sea-Level Pressure over 1850–2023 from Coupled Data Assimilation
Published: 2025-01-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Historical observations of Earth's climate underpin our knowledge and predictions of climate variability and change. However, the observations are incomplete and uncertain, and existing reanalysis datasets based on these observations are derived separately for each component of the climate system, yielding inconsistencies that limit understanding of coupled climate dynamics. Here we use coupled [...]
Preliminary Development of Machine Learning Emulators for Long-Term Atmospheric CO2 Evolution
Published: 2024-12-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Environmental Chemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study evaluates machine learning emulators for modeling long-term atmospheric CO2 evolution by comparing Random Forests (RF) and Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP) in replicating cGENIE Earth System Model outputs over a one-million-year timescale. Using one-year pulse emission experiments spanning 1,000-20,000 PgC with outputs tracked for 106 years, we assessed emulator performance across multiple [...]
Disappearance of Homo floresiensis from Liang Bua alongside seasonal aridification of Flores 61,000-47,000 years ago
Published: 2024-12-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Paleobiology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology
The cause of the disappearance of the primitive hominin, Homo floresiensis, from the Indonesian island of Flores ~50,000 years ago is a key question in palaeoanthropology. The potential roles of human agency and climate change continue to be debated, but the history of freshwater availability critical to survival at the type locality, Liang Bua, remains unknown. Although speleothem 18O is used [...]
Global identification of solid waste methane super emitters using hyperspectral satellites
Published: 2024-10-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Solid waste is the third largest source of anthropogenic methane and mitigating emissions is crucial for addressing climate change. We combine three high-resolution (30–60 m) hyperspectral satellite imagers (EMIT, EnMAP, and PRISMA) to quantify emissions from 38 strongly-emitting disposal sites across worldwide urban methane hotspots. The imagers give consistent emission estimates, with EMIT and [...]
Evidence supporting a broader than previously thought influence of solar activity over Earth system’s processes. Discussion of a possible mechanism.
Published: 2024-09-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
In this article, I show lines of evidence supporting a modulation of volcanic activity and some weather phenomena by solar wind conditions in the near-Earth environment. On a daily timescale, a correlation is found between the LP earthquake activity of Kilauea volcano, related to magma transport, and the Bx component of the interplanetary magnetic field as measured in the OMNI database for [...]
Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions caused by weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive North Atlantic jet biases
Published: 2024-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Long-range winter predictions over the Euro-Atlantic sector have demonstrated significant skill but suffer from systematic signal-to-noise errors. In this study we examine early winter seasonal predictability in 16 state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems. Models demonstrate skill in the hindcasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in early winter, which mostly projects onto the East [...]
On the link between weather regimes and energy shortfall during winter for 28 European countries
Published: 2024-08-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Increasing the proportion of energy generation from renewables is one of the necessary steps towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are highly weather sensitive, leading to a challenge when balancing energy demand and energy production. Identifying periods of high shortfall, here defined as when demand exceeds production by renewables, [...]
Dynamical controls on intensity-duration characteristics of heatwaves in an idealised model
Published: 2024-08-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
An idealised climate model is used to study the contribution of the atmospheric circulation to the intensity-duration characteristics of heatwaves. Using the observed correlation between near-surface temperature and lower tropospheric dry static energy (DSE), we study the energetics of the lower troposphere during heatwaves in the model. We observe that, remarkably, the intensity-duration [...]
More biomass burning aerosol is being advected westward over the southern tropical Atlantic since 2003
Published: 2024-07-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Each year, agricultural fires in southern continental Africa emit approximately one third of the world’s biomass burning aerosol. This is advected westward by the prevailing circulation winds over a subtropical stratocumulus cloud deck. The radiative effects from the aerosol and aerosol-cloud interactions impact regional circulations and hydrology. Here we examine how concurrent changes in the [...]
Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Climate impacts will continue to evolve over the coming decades, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. This variability in future projections is only partly explained by the often-used emission [...]
Satellite survey sheds new light on global solid waste methane emissions
Published: 2024-07-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Anthropogenic methane emissions are the second most important contributor to climate change, and their rapid reductions could help decrease near-term warming. Solid waste emits methane through the decay of organic material, which amounts to about 10% of total anthropogenic methane emissions. Satellite instruments enable monitoring of strong methane hotspots, including many strongly emitting urban [...]
Increasingly seasonal jet stream raises risk of co-occurring flooding and extreme wind in Great Britain
Published: 2024-07-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis
Insurers and risk managers for critical infrastructure such as transport or power networks typically do not account for flooding and extreme winds happening at the same time in their quantitative risk assessments. We explore this potentially critical underestimation of risk from these co-occurring hazards through studying events using the regional 12 km resolution UK Climate Projections for a [...]