Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Robust warming rates, marginal evidence of acceleration and unstable extrapolation: a reproducible reanalysis of statistical trend models for the Berkeley Earth global temperature record
Published: 2026-10-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Statistical Models
Simple trend fits to the global temperature record are widely used to summarise warming, but their uncertainty, their evidence for acceleration and their predictive value are often overstated. We re-analysed an earlier linear and quadratic analysis of the Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean record (1850–2024) that reported in-sample R² values of 0.74 and 0.90 and a post-1970 warming rate of 0.194 °C per [...]
Hydrometeorological Consistency and Structural Differences in High-Resolution Atmospheric Forcing Products over the Gulf Coast
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Hydrology
Kilometer-scale meteorological forcing products are increasingly used in hydrologic applications, yet comparable resolution does not ensure consistent atmospheric structure or derived diagnostics. This study compares AORC and NLDAS-3 across the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast (Texas to the Carolinas) from 2001–2020 using a common spatial footprint and paired days. Relative to AORC, NLDAS-3 exhibits [...]
Storm-Level Independent Verification of Operational Cloud Seeding: Seven Seasons of Utah's Program, 2016-2025
Published: 2026-10-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Meteorology
Operational winter cloud seeding programs claim precipitation increases of 3-15%, but the evaluations supporting these claims are produced by program operators using target/control methods that cannot separate seeding effects from operator storm selection: storms are seeded precisely when atmospheric conditions favor the target areas. This study performs, to the author's knowledge, the first [...]
Why Bandung heard the September 2026 Anak Krakatau eruption and Jakarta did not: eruption timing, ray tracing and search-interest evidence, compared with April 2020
Published: 2026-10-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
During the night of 4–5 September 2026, residents of the Bandung area, 240–300 km from Anak Krakatau, reported repeated booms and rattling windows, while Jakarta, 150 km from the volcano, reported almost none. The Indonesian meteorological agency (BMKG) first judged the volcano too distant and the winds unfavourable, then attributed the booms to the eruption. We test the volcanic explanation with [...]
Paraglider flight logs as hypsometers: daily temperature profiles of an Alpine valley, its diurnal heating, and the nearly level ceiling of thermals
Published: 2026-10-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A paraglider flight recorder stores both pressure and GNSS altitude: together they turn routine flight logs into hypsometric measurements of layer-mean virtual temperature. From 86 369 IGC logs of the Valais, Swiss Alps, quality screening retains 13 520 dedicated-instrument flights on 437 days in 2011–2026; 392 days provide at least one profile layer supported by ten flights. At midday, between [...]
Paragliders as probes of the Alpine boundary layer: sink polars from 86 000 flight logs and the flow field of a valley
Published: 2026-10-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Paraglider flight logs are a dense, free and continuous record of the air over mountains: every thermal day, hundreds of pilots fly for hours along the slopes and across the valleys and record their vertical speed once per second. The obstacle is that a vario measures the air plus the sink of the glider, and the sink polars of paragliders are unknown. We obtain them from the logs themselves. [...]
ORBIT: A new, reduced-complexity air quality model for South Asia
Published: 2026-10-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences
Exposure to outdoor air pollution is the most important environmental health risk worldwide, associated with over a million deaths each year in South Asia alone. To understand how to improve air quality, it is necessary to model how changes in emissions affect changes in pollutant concentrations and human health. However, air quality modeling typically demands substantial computation and [...]
Improvement of Daily Temperature Forecasts from a Prediction Market
Published: 2026-10-04
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Natural Resource Economics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Prediction markets aggregate and distill the collective views of participants who have a financial stake in being correct. They have been shown to produce more accurate forecasts in realms like election results, which are not easily amenable to mechanistic modeling because they entail forecasting human behavior. It is far less clear that prediction markets should improve the accuracy of [...]
Slopes rarely out-warm the floor a 2003–2025 MODIS assessment of deep surface-based night-time inversions over the Malang basin, East Java
Published: 2026-10-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Nocturnal cold-air pools can trap heat and pollutants in basin cities, but tropical basins are seldom monitored. We assessed deep surface-based night-time inversions over the Malang basin, East Java, Indonesia, from 2003–2025 MODIS Terra and Aqua night-time land surface temperature (LST), using the difference ΔT between a slope band (900–1300 m; mean 1079 m) and the rural basin floor (≤ 600 m; [...]
Preserving Probabilistic Meaning in Weather-to-Text Generation
Published: 2026-10-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Weather-to-text generation must preserve the event attached to a probability, not only its numerical value. We represent rainfall statements through event thresholds, boundary inclusion, probability levels and conditioning. A verifier bounds event probabilities under partially specified exact distributions and separately checks fidelity to operational reporting conventions. We evaluate eight [...]
On the pattern, magnitude, and timing of anthropogenic heat uptake in the Southern Ocean
Published: 2026-10-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Most of the anthropogenic heat absorbed by the ocean enters through the Southern Ocean, yet the processes that set the pattern, magnitude, and timing of this uptake remain unclear. Using a climate model (CESM1) under abrupt 4xCO2, we show that uptake by the preindustrial ocean circulation alone accounts for more than half of the Southern Ocean uptake and reproduces its slow decline. We isolate [...]
Climate Sensitivity from 21st-Century Trends in Earth's Energy Imbalance
Published: 2026-09-27
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Earth's energy imbalance has increased rapidly since continuous satellite observations began in 2001, raising concern that equilibrium climate sensitivity may be higher than in recent assessments. Here we use energy-budget trends over 2006–2024 to estimate climate sensitivity in a Bayesian framework, accounting for uncertainty in observations, forcing, variability, and pattern effects. Climate [...]
Leveraging Ocean Data and Models: Building the Data Infrastructure, Workforce, and Modeling Capacity to Synthesize Earth’s Ocean Observations
Published: 2026-09-26
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Geology, Hydrology, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
NASA’s aquatic and marine research enterprise within the overarching NASA Biosphere Program is entering an era of unprecedented data abundance. MODIS and the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission already generate ocean color data at rates that strain legacy processing and archiving workflows, and forthcoming missions will add further volume and complexity. These satellite [...]
Carbon and the Elements of Life: Integrated Observing and Modeling of Marine Biological Carbon Cycles
Published: 2026-09-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biodiversity, Biogeochemistry, Biology, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The global ocean acts as a massive reservoir for carbon dioxide, establishing ocean biogeochemistry as a primary driver of global carbon distributions [1-3]. This dynamic system is mediated by living organisms that cycle carbon and other elements through the ocean interior and air-sea interface, and is already being altered by warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and shifting nutrient supply [...]
Changes to the Madden-Julian Oscillation with Surface Temperature Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Interactions between waves and the mean-state in the tropics are of fundamental importance for reliable future projection of tropical waves and their impacts under anthropogenic climate change. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of weather variability over many parts of the globe on intraseasonal timescales. In this study, we investigate the influence of mean-state changes [...]