Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Study on Land-use Change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions
Published: 2026-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Studies
Land-use change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions (ELUC, defined as net carbon emissions and removals) have accounted for approximately one-third of global anthropogenic carbon emissions since industrialization. While its contribution has declined in recent decades, ELUC still represents a significant component of the global carbon budget, comprising 11% of anthropogenic emissions during 2012–2022. [...]
Two Wind Farms, Two Islands: Physics Informed Causal Wind Analysis in New Zealand
Published: 2026-01-07
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Power and Energy
Wind power forecasting models often rely on correlation-based methods, which can misinterpret the relationship between meteorological variables and power generation. A key example is air density: while physics suggests denser air should increase available wind power, observational data can show a negative correlation because high-pressure regimes (high density) often coincide with lower wind [...]
More Frequent Extreme Precipitation on the Asian Monsoon Fringes Driven by Evolving Extratropical Planetary-Scale Circulations
Published: 2026-01-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
In recent decades, the fringes of the Asian summer monsoon, such as Pakistan and Northeast China, have become hotspots of extreme precipitation. Although such increases are often linked to thermodynamic changes in a warming climate, the dynamical drivers behind these trends, particularly the systematic role of extratropical circulations, remain poorly understood. This study identifies the [...]
Low-level wind variability at Jaisalmer and its representation in ERA5 Reanalysis
Published: 2026-01-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Jaisalmer has grown to be one of the important wind energy hubs in India following the development of the Jaisalmer Wind Park. In this study we assess the variability of wind speed at various scales, and the occurrence of wind ramps (defined as the change in wind speed over a certain period) at Jaisalmer using high-quality in-situ measurements. A distinct diurnal pattern in wind ramps is seen in [...]
Evaluating the importance of street trees and their parameters for urban canopy model performance: Model updates and machine learning
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
In this study, the effects of street trees on the performance of an urban canopy model (UCM) and how the UCM sensitively responds to tree-related parameters compared with urban thermal parameters are examined. For this, a single-layer UCM is extended to represent street trees within urban canyons and multi-objective parameter optimizations and a global sensitivity analysis are conducted with the [...]
Targeted weather regimes identify circulation patterns behind Western European summer heat extremes and trends
Published: 2025-11-13
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Western European heat extremes have intensified in recent decades, with their rate of warming outpacing the global mean. Against this general human-induced warming trend, understanding the circulation patterns that drive such heat extremes is crucial. Weather-regime (WR) approaches have been widely used to characterise large-scale circulation variability; however, conventional classifications are [...]
A Comparative Evaluation of Advanced Urban Data Methods in WRF
Published: 2025-10-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Urban parameterization is critical for accurately simulating near-surface temperature and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in WRF. In this study, we compare three distinct approaches—W2W (a Python package integrating WUDAPT LCZ data), WRFUP (a Python package leveraging global high-resolution datasets), and a LiDAR-based parameterization—during the August, 2023 heatwave in Grenoble, France. Our [...]
Evaluating Urban Heat Adaptation Strategies for Extreme Heatwaves in Complex Terrain: A Case Study of Grenoble, France
Published: 2025-10-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physics
Urban heat adaptation strategies are critical for mitigating the impacts of ex- treme heat events in cities, particularly as climate change exacerbates their intensity and frequency. This study evaluates a set of adaptation strategies during the 2023 heatwave in Grenoble, France, using the WRF model with the BEP+BEM urban canopy scheme. Eight scenarios are simulated, including increased [...]
Radiogenic Sr-Nd-Pb isotope behavior in different grain-sized fine lithic materials during basalt weathering
Published: 2025-10-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Radiogenic isotopes are widely used as sediment provenance tracers; however, their weathering response has not been fully established. This study investigates the weathering sensitivity of Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes in fine lithic fractions (FLF; grain size <2 μm, <5 μm, and <20 μm) capable of long-range transport. Geochemical and isotope compositions have been measured in the physicochemically [...]
Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming
Published: 2025-10-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Abstract: Paleoclimates provide examples of past climate change that inform estimates of modern warming from greenhouse-gas emissions, known as Earth's climate sensitivity. However, differences between past and present climate change must be accounted for when inferring climate sensitivity from paleoclimate evidence. The closest paleoclimate analog to near-term warming from greenhouse-gas [...]
Worldwide inference of national methane emissions by inversion of satellite observations with UNFCCC prior estimates
Published: 2025-10-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering
Meeting climate policy goals to reduce methane emissions under the Paris Agreement and the Global Methane Pledge requires nations to set targets and quantify reductions. Individual countries report emissions by sector to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) but there are large uncertainties. Here we optimize 2023 national emissions at up to 25 km grid resolution for [...]
Detection of Point-Source Methane Enhancements from MethaneSAT Observations with Target-Driven Spectral Matching Algorithm
Published: 2025-09-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with large emissions often arising from localized point sources in industrial facilities. MethaneSAT, launched in 2024, observes the 1598-1683 nm band with sub-nanometer resolution and 100 m × 400 m footprints, enabling sensitive detection of methane absorption. We introduce an updated matched filter (BCMF) with covariance exclusion and a statistical correction [...]
Lorenz Energy Cycle Climatology for the Southwestern Atlantic Cyclones
Published: 2025-09-13
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
This study presents a climatological assessment of the Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) applied to South Atlantic cyclones, using a Semi-Lagrangian framework. Over 6,700 cyclones were identified from ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2020), and LEC components were computed and averaged across four objectively defined life cycle phases: incipient, intensification, mature, and decay. Results reveal a coherent energy [...]
Quantification of natural CO2 emissions from mofettes using a low-cost sensor network at the Starzach site in south-west Germany
Published: 2025-09-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology
We present a top-down method to derive carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from mofettes, using only point measurement time series at irregular locations. Notably, no wind vector information is needed, as gas transport is derived from cross-correlations between sensor stations and subsequently integrated using Gauss’ divergence theorem. The method is applied to an existing low-cost sensor network at [...]
Hunga eruption on 15 January 2022: Was there a precursor plume one hour before the eruption?
Published: 2025-09-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Volcanology
This note is aimed at the examination of a precursor plume one hour before the paroxysmal Hunga eruption on 15 January 2022, following a claim made in Van Eaton et al. (2023). After examination of a number of satellite and meteorological data, it is concluded in agreement with Prata et al. (2024) that this claim results from a misinterpretation of satellite imagery.