Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
How Greenland melts under cloudy and clear skies
Published: 2026-11-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Glaciology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Power and Energy, Systems and Communications
Greenland ice loss has risen sharply since industrialization and will likely contribute 20 cm to sea level rise before 2100. On the highest emissions pathway the ice sheet could melt by the year 3000, submerging coasts by 7.2 meters. Greenland surface melt now dominates cryospheric mass loss. To constrain the driving processes of this melt, here we present high-fidelity surface observations of [...]
An unprecedented Mediterranean tropical cyclogenesis attempt above extreme sea surface temperatures?
Published: 2026-11-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
On 3-4 October 2026, a strong and organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed over the Balearic Sea in the Western Mediterranean, and produced torrential rainfall in the Barcelona area, with up to 248 mm at Granollers (230 mm in 8 hours; 65 mm in an hour). The event occurred without discernible large-scale forcing from an upper-level cut-off low or trough, while western Mediterranean [...]
Station-trained air-quality forecasts without regional emission inventories
Published: 2026-10-31
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Computer Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences
Air-quality forecasts rely on regional chemical transport models (CTMs) and emission inventories, which are uncertain in many regions and costly to update. Here we present SOLACE, whose inner forecast is trained on monitoring-station observations alone and evolves gridded concentration fields through explicit transport, layer exchange, sources and sinks. With 140,000 trained parameters and no [...]
Conditional reliability of gridded rainfall datasets in Nigeria
Published: 2026-10-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Gridded rainfall datasets support Nigerian research and climate services, but published agreement depends on the rainfall property, release and validation design. This critical narrative review audits 18 Nigerian gauge-reference evaluations and two contextual comparator studies. The core register contains five complete-text, five passage-only and eight abstract-only records. An archived [...]
Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Atmospheric Pollutants and Dispersion Mechanisms over West Bengal (2019–2024): Insights from Sentinel-5P, GEOS-CHEM, and HYSPLIT Models
Published: 2026-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
This study delivers a thorough spatio-temporal analysis of atmospheric pollutants and their dispersion mechanisms across West Bengal (2019–2024), utilizing an integrated approach of Earth Observation and modeling techniques. We employed satellite data from Sentinel-5P alongside GEOS-Chem box modeling, HYSPLIT trajectory simulations, and AI-enhanced statistical methods to examine trends, identify [...]
Historical air quality database in Navarre, Spain (2011–2025): Harmonized hourly records and relational Star Schema of atmospheric pollutants
Published: 2026-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Monitoring
Administrative air quality monitoring networks often release public data across fragmented repositories, variable formats, and inconsistent time encodings, hindering automated scientific re-use. This paper presents a curated, harmonized, and quality-controlled environmental dataset covering 15 consecutive years (2011–2025) of hourly atmospheric observations in Navarre, Spain. Integrating [...]
Hotspots of Efficient Large-scale Circulation Response to Idealized Diabatic Heating
Published: 2026-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Soil moisture anomalies can influence large-scale atmospheric circulation and thereby affect remote regions. However, the seasonal and geographical dependence of these circulation responses has been largely unexplored. Here, we conduct idealized experiments with a Linear Baroclinic Model, imposing identical low-level diabatic heating anomalies across global land to examine atmospheric circulation [...]
Droughts are dominated by anomalous circulation not anomalous atmospheric moisture content
Published: 2026-10-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Agricultural drought is a sustained soil moisture deficit caused by reduced net moisture flux to the land surface. We show that agricultural droughts can occur when the atmosphere is anomalously wet, challenging the assumption that surface drying reflects atmospheric moisture deficits. Precipitation declines during drought even under increased atmospheric moisture, indicating low precipitation [...]
Sampling Uncertainty is Critical for Setting Forecast-Based Anticipatory Action Triggers
Published: 2026-10-27
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Risk Analysis
As of 2022, nearly 5 million smallholder farmers across more than a dozen countries are covered by Anticipatory Action (AA) programs. AA programs are aid schemes triggered when seasonal forecasts of precipitation fall below a locally-determined drought threshold. These thresholds are generally calculated to meet a donor- or government-specified expected trigger frequency. However, the [...]
Detecting Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions Using Deep Learning and TEMPO Satellite Imagery
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
NASA's Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument provides hourly daytime observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) across North America. These observations could support independent, facility-level monitoring of power plant nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, filling gaps when continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) measurements fail or facilities are not [...]
Robust warming rates, marginal evidence of acceleration and unstable extrapolation: a reproducible reanalysis of statistical trend models for the Berkeley Earth global temperature record
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Statistical Models
Simple trend fits to the global temperature record are widely used to summarise warming, but their uncertainty, their evidence for acceleration and their predictive value are often overstated. We re-analysed an earlier linear and quadratic analysis of the Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean record (1850–2024) that reported in-sample R² values of 0.74 and 0.90 and a post-1970 warming rate of 0.194 °C per [...]
Hydrometeorological Consistency and Structural Differences in High-Resolution Atmospheric Forcing Products over the Gulf Coast
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Hydrology
Kilometer-scale meteorological forcing products are increasingly used in hydrologic applications, yet comparable resolution does not ensure consistent atmospheric structure or derived diagnostics. This study compares AORC and NLDAS-3 across the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast (Texas to the Carolinas) from 2001–2020 using a common spatial footprint and paired days. Relative to AORC, NLDAS-3 exhibits [...]
Storm-Level Independent Verification of Operational Cloud Seeding: Seven Seasons of Utah's Program, 2016-2025
Published: 2026-10-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Meteorology
Operational winter cloud seeding programs claim precipitation increases of 3-15%, but the evaluations supporting these claims are produced by program operators using target/control methods that cannot separate seeding effects from operator storm selection: storms are seeded precisely when atmospheric conditions favor the target areas. This study performs, to the author's knowledge, the first [...]
Why Bandung heard the September 2026 Anak Krakatau eruption and Jakarta did not: eruption timing, ray tracing and search-interest evidence, compared with April 2020
Published: 2026-10-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
During the night of 4–5 September 2026, residents of the Bandung area, 240–300 km from Anak Krakatau, reported repeated booms and rattling windows, while Jakarta, 150 km from the volcano, reported almost none. The Indonesian meteorological agency (BMKG) first judged the volcano too distant and the winds unfavourable, then attributed the booms to the eruption. We test the volcanic explanation with [...]
Paraglider flight logs as hypsometers: daily temperature profiles of an Alpine valley, its diurnal heating, and the nearly level ceiling of thermals
Published: 2026-10-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A paraglider flight recorder stores both pressure and GNSS altitude: together they turn routine flight logs into hypsometric measurements of layer-mean virtual temperature. From 86 369 IGC logs of the Valais, Swiss Alps, quality screening retains 13 520 dedicated-instrument flights on 437 days in 2011–2026; 392 days provide at least one profile layer supported by ten flights. At midday, between [...]