Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Design Rationale of the JcupLT Coupling Library: Lessons Learned from Jcup Development and Applications
Published: 2026-04-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Software Engineering
Coupling libraries are essential infrastructure for multi-component simulations in weather, climate, and earth system modeling. Jcup is a coupling library developed since 2007 and applied to a wide range of coupled simulations, including atmosphere–ocean coupling, land surface modeling, seismic–structural coupling, and AI-integrated simulations. Through nearly two decades of development and [...]
A new diagnostic of air-sea interaction reveals ocean control of turbulent heat flux in the South Asian Summer Monsoon
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography
Air-sea interaction plays a central role in the South Asian summer monsoon, with processes such as surface turbulent heat fluxes, upper ocean mechanical mixing, surface buoyancy forcing, and surface moisture fluxes providing bridges between the ocean and atmosphere. The air-sea heat flux responds to internal variability in the ocean and atmosphere, as well as feedbacks arising from their [...]
Persistent Multi-Scale Consistency in Best-Track Intensity Evolution and Rapid Intensification in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (1851–2024)
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rapid intensification (RI), commonly defined as an increase in maximum sustained wind speed of at least 30 kt within 24 h, remains one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting. This study evaluates whether persistent multi-scale consistency in best-track intensity evolution is statistically associated with RI occurrence across the full Atlantic historical record. A [...]
The Hermatz Effect: A Five-Layer Solar–Geo Dynamo Model for the Persistent 0.038 Hz Global Seismic Signal
Published: 2026-03-30
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Atmospheric Sciences, Condensed Matter Physics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Fluid Dynamics, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Astrophysics and Astronomy, Other Physics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Hydrology, Tectonics and Structure, The Sun and the Solar System
Earth produces a faint but globally detectable vibration at a period of exactly 26 seconds, and no one has fully explained why. This paper proposes that it comes from a crack in the ocean floor off West Africa acting like a tuned whistle — the ocean blows air through it, the crack vibrates at its natural frequency, and the vibration travels around the entire planet as a seismic wave. Occasionally [...]
Do Less Predictable Tropical Cyclones Induce Larger Damages?
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Statistical Models
Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause substantial disaster losses worldwide. Forecast skill for TC track and intensity has been improved by enhanced observations, high-resolution numerical models, advanced data assimilation methods, and applications of machine-learning methods. Yet these improvements have not consistently translated into reduced losses, in part because disaster outcomes depend on many [...]
Assessing the medium-term risk to reef damage and rubble generation for the Great Barrier Reef
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coral reef systems live in multi-hazard environments and are exposed to a wide range of disturbance events that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. We identify seven drivers derived from hazards that have and can result in reef damage in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): waves, winds, bottom current velocity, coral bleaching, crown-of-thorns seastar outbreaks, ship groundings, and [...]
The Response of Onset and Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Volcanic Aerosols
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Large volcanic eruptions are a source of climate variability, affecting the seasonal mean precipitation of the Indian summer monsoon. However, the extent to which changes in seasonal precipitation can be attributed to variations in monsoon length vs. monsoon intensity has remained unclear. Using large ensemble simulations of idealised volcanic eruptions at varying latitudes, we find that the [...]
Proof-of-Concept: Vertical Wind Profile Reconstruction from Ground-Based Optical Sensors Using Machine Learning
Published: 2026-03-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Vertical wind profiles are critical for weather forecasting, aviation safety, and atmospheric research, yet remain sparsely observed due to the high cost of radiosondes (€100–200 per launch) and wind profiler radars (€100,000–1,000,000). We present a proof-of-concept demonstrating that ground-based optical measurements from low-cost amateur radio sensors can predict upper-air wind speeds across [...]
A bias-corrected & downscaled massive ensemble to diagnose uncertainty in climate impact projections
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Projections of climate change and climate impacts requires bias-corrected, downscaled output from ensembles of earth system models (ESMs). Potential impacts are uncertain due to modeling differences between ESMs, internal variability stemming from the chaos of the earth system, and differences in the historical reference datasets used to bias-corrected and downscale ESM output. Here, we introduce [...]
Quantifying the Causal Strength of Compound Drought–Heatwaves: Implications for Fire Events and Cropland Productivity
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events represent one of the most disruptive forms of climate extremes, as the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot conditions signifies their impacts far beyond those of individual events. Yet, despite their increasing significance, the causal influence of CDHW frequency and severity on fire activity and crop yield variability remains poorly quantified, [...]
Widespread reliance of rainfed crops on upwind irrigated agriculture in India
Published: 2026-02-04
Subjects: Agriculture, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Rainfed crops account for approximately 40% of India’s food production and support 60% of its livestock. Although linked to oceanic monsoon rainfall, their productivity also depends on terrestrial evaporation, particularly in the non-monsoon season. However, the degree to which rainfed crops also rely on moisture sourced from upwind irrigated areas, remains largely unknown. Using a combination of [...]
Coordinated satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observations of a large transient methane release
Published: 2026-02-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Oil, Gas, and Energy
We present results from a Very Large Methane Release (VLMR) experiment evaluating methane retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABIs) and multiple low-Earth-orbit imagers with high point-source detection limits. The experiment coordinated observations of a U.S. gas pipeline blowdown with nine satellites, two aircraft, and a [...]
Identification and verification of worst-case radiological transport scenarios for Ireland: a simulation-based approach to nuclear emergency preparedness (2011-2024)
Published: 2026-01-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
This study presents a comprehensive simulation-based assessment of potential transboundary radiological transport to Ireland from six nuclear facilities in the United Kingdom and France, utilising weather data over a fourteen-year period (2011–2024). Systematic screening of 2.2 million HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion simulations identified eighteen worst-case scenarios representing conditions of [...]
Scene-based spectral characterization of spaceborne imaging spectrometers in different spectral windows
Published: 2026-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences
Accurate knowledge of the spectral response of spaceborne imaging spectrometers, including center wavelength (CW) and full width at half maximum (FWHM), is essential for reliable retrievals of atmospheric and surface parameters from at-sensor radiance data. Pre-flight characterizations often fail to capture changes in spectral response arising from launch, orbital conditions, and instrument [...]
Study on Land-use Change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions
Published: 2026-01-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Studies
Land-use change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions (ELUC, defined as net carbon emissions and removals) have accounted for approximately one-third of global anthropogenic carbon emissions since industrialization. While its contribution has declined in recent decades, ELUC still represents a significant component of the global carbon budget, comprising 11% of anthropogenic emissions during 2012–2022. [...]