Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Cloud-Free Imaging Probability Forecasting for Optical Earth-Observation Tasking over Yerevan, Armenia
Published: 2026-07-17
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Remote Sensing
Optical Earth-observation satellites such as Sentinel-2 cannot see through cloud, so a tasking attempt over a cloudy target wastes a limited imaging window along with onboard power and downlink bandwidth. We study whether next-day cloud conditions over Yerevan, Armenia can be forecast accurately enough to automate the binary Go/No-Go tasking decision. Daily cloud-free fractions are derived from [...]
Historical Pattern Effects and Climate Sensitivity Revisited with Novel Constraints on Past Warming Patterns
Published: 2026-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The historical record (1850–present) can constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) only if we know the patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) that shape radiative feedbacks. Feedbacks depend on spatial patterns of SST and SIC (“pattern effects”), yet the impact of historical SST/SIC uncertainty on feedback estimates has not been systematically quantified. [...]
Improving PM2.5 Estimation from Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Using Boundary Layer Height and Meteorological Variables
Published: 2026-07-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurate estimation of surface particulate matter (PM2.5) from satellite observations remains challenging because aerosol optical depth (AOD) represents column-integrated aerosol loading and is strongly influenced by meteorological conditions. This study investigates the relationship between satellite-derived AOD, meteorological variables, and surface PM2.5 concentrations over Mumbai, India, [...]
Bitwise Reproducibility as an Incomplete Correctness Signal: A Structural Audit for Parallel Spectral GCMs
Published: 2026-07-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Bitwise reproducibility of an OpenMP-parallelized scientific code is usually verified by checksum comparison on a short run—an inductive leap that carries no guarantee at longer integration lengths. We study it instead as a deductive and diagnostic property of the source text, taking a legacy spectral atmospheric general circulation model, whose time step is a reduction over a partitioned [...]
Multi-scale measurements and temporally resolved modeling of methane emissions at natural gas distribution stations
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oil, Gas, and Energy
Methane (CH4) emissions from natural gas distribution stations are not well characterized by measurements, contributing to uncertainty in urban emissions inventories and mitigation strategies. We conducted a multi-scale, multi-temporal study of four distribution stations in Calgary, Alberta, combining component- and facility-level measurements with modeling to quantify, attribute, and compare [...]
A multi-indicator framework for assessing the likelihood of ENSO impacts across southern Africa
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of seasonal predictability for southern Africa, yet operational guidance rarely conveys which agriculturally relevant variables it can skillfully predict, or where ENSO impacts are most likely. We present an operational analysis framework that converts an ENSO state, classified by phase and strength, into gridded, analogue-composite [...]
Detecting industrial ammonia and ethylene point sources with the thermal bands of Landsat 8 and 9
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences
Industrial point sources of ammonia (NH₃) and ethylene (C₂H₄) are poorly constrained in current inventories, in part because satellites tend to offer either fine spatial detail or frequent revisits. We show that the two thermal-infrared bands of the Landsat 8 and 9 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), though built for land-surface monitoring, can detect and spatially resolve such plumes at 100 m [...]
A State-dependent Error Covariance Model of Surface Atmospheric Forcings over the Arctic Sea Ice
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
This paper presents a state-dependent error covariance model of surface atmospheric forcings over Arctic sea ice for constraining atmospheric influences on short-range sea ice forecast errors. Atmospheric influences are argued to be a dominant source of sea ice forecast errors at shorter lead times and thus need to be properly accounted for in generating ensemble sea ice forecasts relevant for [...]
Measurement and Tracking of Blowing and Falling Snow Particles Using an Automotive 1550 nm LiDAR
Published: 2026-06-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Glaciology, Hydrology, Meteorology
The prevalence and affordability of fast-scanning commercially available LiDARs are increasing due to the rapid expansion of the autonomous vehicle industry. These LiDAR units can provide >1 Hz measurements of millions of laser reflections at ranges of hundreds of meters with high precision. In this study we investigate the often overlooked 1550 nm wavelength LiDAR for measurements of airborne [...]
Remote sensing of ammonia point sources at high spatial resolution with satellite-based imaging spectrometers
Published: 2026-06-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring
Ammonia (NH3) emissions play a key role in air pollution and the disruption of the nitrogen cycle. Global emissions of ammonia are expected to increase in the future, making their monitoring essential to better understand their impacts and to support effective environmental policies. Recent studies have demonstrated the potential of satellite imaging spectrometers operating in the shortwave [...]
Performance validation of the GHGSat Methane Constellation via controlled releases
Published: 2026-06-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring
Satellite remote sensing has become an important tool for detecting, quantifying, and attributing methane emissions, yet a rigorous, condition-dependent characterization of point-source imager performance has not previously been established, despite being essential to support its use in regulatory and voluntary reporting frameworks. We present a comprehensive performance assessment of the GHGSat [...]
Toward Fit-for-Purpose Evapotranspiration Observations
Published: 2026-06-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Evapotranspiration (ET) underpins water, energy, and carbon cycling, yet remains among the least observed hydrologic fluxes, creating a persistent paradox: hydrology is advancing rapidly through artificial intelligence and data-driven methods while its observational foundation remains sparse and fragmented. Eddy covariance provides robust ET measurements, but high cost and operational demands [...]
Why the Earth Exhibits Interhemispheric Albedo Symmetry: Erosion–formation asymmetry of low-cloud responses to circulation reorganization.
Published: 2026-06-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earth exhibits a striking near symmetry in interhemispheric mean albedo despite substantial asymmetries in surface properties, aerosols, and geography. Whether this symmetry is coincidental or dynamically constrained remains unresolved. Here we present a minimal theoretical framework showing that a moist atmosphere provides a physically constrained, but bounded, tendency to oppose [...]
Implicit-tuning signal quantified through a tri-experiment design in a legacy spectral GCM
Published: 2026-06-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
We quantify the climate response of the MGO atmospheric general circulation model (MGO-03 T42L25) to two alternative implementations of a structural fix in the vertical-exchange parameterization. A companion parallelization study (under review) identifies an unintended inter-latitude state leakage through SAVE-persistent working arrays in the boundary-layer scheme. Here we contrast the legacy [...]
Dress Rehearsal: 2023 El Niño Anticipatory Action Somalia, in the Shadow of 1997
Published: 2026-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography
In 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding driven by El Niño and a positiveIn 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding [...]