Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Hydrology
AI-Powered Flood Risk Assessment for Gilgit-Baltistan Using Multi-Source Satellite Data and Machine Learning
Published: 2025-09-20
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Geography, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Hydrology
Flood disasters are intensifying worldwide due to climate change, with mountainous regions among the most vulnerable yet least studied. This paper presents an AI-powered flood risk assessment framework for Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan, a high-mountain region prone to flash floods and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Multi-source satellite datasets—including CHIRPS precipitation, JRC Global [...]
Machine Learning Generated Streamflow Drought Forecasts for the Conterminous United States (CONUS): Developing and Evaluating an Operational Tool to Enhance Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Streamflow Drought Early Warning for Gaged Locations
Published: 2025-09-19
Subjects: Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Forecasts of streamflow drought, when streamflow declines below typical levels, are notably less available than for floods or meteorological drought, despite widespread impacts. To address this gap, we apply machine learning (ML) models to forecast streamflow drought 1-13 weeks into the future at > 3,000 streamgage locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We applied two ML [...]
Global hyper-resolution groundwater dataset for assessing historical and future groundwater dynamics
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences
Sustainable management of global groundwater is a key societal challenge and central to Sustainable Development Goals. To address limited observations and coarse global models, we present a global hyper-resolution dataset of monthly groundwater heads and water table depth at 30 arc-seconds (~1 km), simulated by GLOBGM, a global groundwater flow model. The data set follows ISIMIP protocols and [...]
Coastal groundwater level trends reveal global susceptibility to seawater intrusion
Published: 2025-09-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coastal groundwater is a vital source of freshwater that is threatened by overabstraction and rising sea levels. Yet, our understanding of where global coastal groundwater levels (GWLs) are declining and what regions are susceptible to future seawater intrusion (SWI) remains limited. Here, we present the first global, observation-based assessment of coastal GWL trends, using more than 550,000 [...]
Hydrologic Implications for Seasonally Draining Lakes in the Central Oregon Cascades
Published: 2025-09-13
Subjects: Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The hydrogeology of volcanic terrain exhibits characteristics that reflect both a legacy of volcanic construction and transient evolution of bedrock hydraulic conductivity on million year timescales. Here, we study a drainage basin in the Central Oregon High Cascades in which Holocene lava flows dammed streams, creating seasonal lakes that fill with the spring snowmelt, and drain completely over [...]
Reconciling remote sensing and reanalysis land surface temperatures: How surface conditions shape bias between GOES-16 and MERRA-2 across the contiguous US
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Soil Science
Land surface temperature is a key variable governing land–atmosphere energy and water exchanges. Despite its importance, satellite observations and reanalysis products often differ in how they define the effective depth of land surface temperature and in the assumptions underlying their estimates, making comparisons and interpretation challenging. In this study, we present a detailed comparison [...]
Advancing Long-Horizon Hydrological Forecasting: A Mamba-based Approach with Explainable AI for Generalized Streamflow Prediction
Published: 2025-09-02
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Accurate long-horizon streamflow forecasting is crucial for water resource management, but existing models often face efficiency and interpretability challenges. This study comprehensively evaluates the Mamba architecture, which utilizes State Space Models for efficient sequence processing, for 120-hour hourly generalized streamflow prediction across 125 diverse Iowa watersheds using 72-hour [...]
Governing transboundary river barriers: adaptive management challenges in South and Southeast Asia
Published: 2025-08-30
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology, Sustainability, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology, Water Resource Management
Hydrology-Based Coastal Risk Assessment in Charleston, South Carolina: Sea-Level Rise, Land Subsidence, Nuisance Flooding, and the Overlooked Role of Groundwater Attenuation
Published: 2025-08-29
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Studies, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Charleston, South Carolina is among the most flood-exposed cities on the United States Atlantic coast. Tide-gauge records show mean sea level rising at 3.51 mm per year since 1921, while InSAR analyses identify localized subsidence exceeding 4 mm per year, producing effective relative rise of 7 to 8 mm per year. This acceleration explains the increase in nuisance flooding from fewer than 5 days [...]
Undrainable pore spaces comprise half of US groundwater storage
Published: 2025-08-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Groundwater is vital to global freshwater access, streamflow generation, and biogeochemical cycling, but not all groundwater can be drained due to adhesive and capillary forces. Quantifying the proportion of groundwater that can be drained—and is, thus, theoretically recoverable—is critical for characterising groundwater’s role in earth system processes. Unfortunately, estimates of theoretically [...]
How do climate, geomorphology, and land-use control sediment yield generation in an anthropogenically modified landscape?
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Sedimentology
Understanding the controls on sediment yield (SY) is essential for water resource management. However, in the Cauvery basin in India, progress is hindered by fragmented studies that lack an integrated analysis. This research quantifies sub-catchment SY using long-term gauging data and employs Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) and multiple regression (MLR) to evaluate geomorphic, climatic, [...]
Climate driven hydrologic nonstationarity patterns across the Contiguous United States
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We calculated metrics of climate change, land use-land cover change, and hydrologic nonstationarity in 671 catchments across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) that are known not to have relatively little urbanization and anthropogenic land cover. Climate change is correlated with hydrologic nonstationarity in these basins. Land use-land cover change has no correlation with hydrologic [...]
Geomodelling of multi-scenario non-stationary reservoirs with enhanced GANSim
Published: 2025-08-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Mining Engineering, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Reservoir geomodelling is critical for groundwater management, CO₂ storage, geothermal exploitation, and hydrocarbon exploration, yet traditional geostatistical methods like multiple-point statistics (MPS) struggle with simulating complex geological patterns. GANSim, a Generative Adversarial Networks-based geomodelling method, has proven effective for single-scenario stationary reservoirs, but [...]
Regionally divergent drivers behind transgressions of the freshwater change planetary boundary
Published: 2025-08-01
Subjects: Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Human-driven freshwater change contributes to elevated Earth system risks. Here, we advance the understanding of drivers behind the transgression of the planetary boundary for freshwater change (PB-FW), based on historical (1901–2019) streamflow (blue water) and soil moisture (green water) simulations from a large ensemble of global hydrological models. Since the former estimate ending in 2005, [...]
A Spatial Analysis of the Groundwater Emergence Flood Hazard in Long Island, New York and near Coastal Areas Surrounding Long Island Sound in New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Long Island, New York and near coastal areas surrounding Long Island Sound are densely populated and, like other coastal areas, are susceptible to flooding from several potential sources, including stormwater from precipitation events, tidal flooding and storm surge, and groundwater inundation or groundwater emergence flooding. The latter refers to the intersection of a rising water table with [...]