Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networks
Published: 2024-11-15
Subjects: Agriculture, Climate, Environmental Studies, Risk Analysis
Compound climate hazards, such as co-occurring temperature and precipitation extremes, substantially impact people and ecosystems. Internal climate variability combines with the forced global warming response to determine both the magnitude and spatial distribution of these events, and their consequences can propagate from one country to another via many pathways. We examine how exposure to [...]
Flooding, nonlinear dynamics and Jensen’s inequality: Analyzing the damping and amplification of inundation extent with river discharge nonstationarity
Published: 2024-11-13
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Hydrology, Risk Analysis
Flood Resilience Assessment of Interconnected Critical Infrastructures
Published: 2024-11-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis, Systems Engineering, Water Resource Management
Undertaking systemic risk assessments of critical infrastructures (CIs) is necessary to improve understanding, mitigate impacts, and increase resilience to cascading effects of intensifying hydrometeorological hazards. This paper presents a novel quantitative approach for simulating local physical interdependencies between multiple infrastructure sectors that may be disrupted by floods. [...]
Resilient foods for preventing global famine: a review of food supply interventions for global catastrophic food shocks including nuclear winter and infrastructure collapse
Published: 2024-09-12
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Animal Sciences, Aquaculture and Fisheries Life Sciences, Chemical Engineering, Engineering, Food Science, Life Sciences, Plant Sciences, Risk Analysis
Global catastrophic threats to the food system upon which human society depends are numerous. A nuclear war or volcanic eruption could collapse agricultural yields by inhibiting crop growth. Nuclear electromagnetic pulses or extreme pandemics could disrupt industry and mass-scale food supply by unprecedented levels. Global food storage is limited. What can be done? This article presents the state [...]
Frictional Properties of Simulated Fault Gouges subject to Normal Stress Oscillation and Implications for Induced Seismicity
Published: 2024-08-24
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Risk Analysis
Under critical conditions where experimental fault slip exhibits self-sustained oscillation, effects of normal stress oscillation (NSO) on fault strength and stability remain poorly understood, as do potential effects of NSO on natural and induced seismicity. In this study, we employed double direct shear testing to investigate the frictional behavior of a synthetic, slightly velocity-weakening [...]
Rapid Fault Leakage Modeling for CO2 Storage in Saline Aquifers
Published: 2024-08-12
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Petroleum Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Simulating the fluid flow along fault zones at different scales is essential for predicting the CO2 leakage and containment during injection and storage. However, this can be challenging, especially in the early stages of a storage project when knowledge of the reservoir and caprock is limited and the cost of obtaining the relevant data is high. This study proposes a tool for fast screening of [...]
Scenario Development for Safety Assessment in Deep Geologic Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel: A Review
Published: 2024-07-30
Subjects: Risk Analysis
Radiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing post-closure safety of the future [...]
Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Climate impacts will continue to evolve over the coming decades, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. This variability in future projections is only partly explained by the often-used emission [...]
Quantifying relationships between fault parameters and rupture characteristics associated with thrust and reverse fault earthquakes.
Published: 2024-07-12
Subjects: Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Geotechnical Engineering, Risk Analysis, Tectonics and Structure
We investigate the influence of earthquake source characteristics and geological site parameters on fault scarp morphologies for thrust and reverse fault earthquakes using geomechanical models. We performed a total of 3,434 distinct element method (DEM) model experiments to evaluate the impact of the sediment depth, density, homogeneous and heterogeneous sediment strengths, fault dip, and the [...]
Evaluating the Flood Vulnerability of Urban Areas in Polk County, Iowa using Social-Ecological-Technological Framework
Published: 2024-07-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis
The escalating prominence of floods globally, with their catastrophic potential to inflict substantial losses in terms of both human lives and economic resources, underscores their significance. Particularly susceptible to flooding between May and July, the US Midwest faces heightened risks during this critical period, characterized by the highest average precipitation rates of the year. Flood [...]
A consistent terminology to communicate ground-related uncertainty
Published: 2024-03-26
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Engineering geology is highly affected by uncertainty related to geology, geotechnical parameters, models and methods. While the technical aspects of ground-related uncertainty are increasingly well investigated, the terminology to communicate uncertainty - e.g., “It is likely that X will happen.” - has not yet been unified and experts use it however they see fit. Due to varying experience, [...]
A Novel Methodology for Enhancing Flood Risk Communication: The Nines of Safety
Published: 2024-01-12
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies, Risk Analysis
Flood risk communication helps people plan for and recover from disasters, especially in flood-prone areas. The Nines of Safety (NoS) concept described in this study provides a new perspective for flood risk communication and assessment. The NoS method can help analyze flood risk comprehensively and support decision-makers and the public understand their vulnerability under various conditions. [...]
A Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment for Railroad Network: Case Study for Iowa
Published: 2023-12-29
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis
Climate-induced disasters, particularly floods, pose a substantial risk to human well-being. These risks encompass economic losses, infrastructural damage, disruption of daily life, and potential loss of life. This study focuses on understanding flood risks to critical infrastructure, emphasizing the resilience and reliability of essential services during such disasters. In the United States, the [...]
Data for Critical Infrastructure Network Modelling of Natural Hazard Impacts: Needs and Influence on Model Characteristics
Published: 2023-11-03
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis
Natural hazards impact the interdependent infrastructure networks that keep modern society functional. While a variety of critical infrastructure network (CIN) modelling approaches are available to represent CI networks on different scales and analyse the impacts of natural hazards, a recurring challenge for all modelling approaches is the availability and accessibility of sufficiently [...]
Robustness of the evaluation of indirect costs of natural disasters: example of the ARIO model
Published: 2023-10-30
Subjects: Risk Analysis
Given the interconnectedness of economies and the prevalence of just-in-time production processes, even small interruptions to production caused by natural disasters can lead to great indirect economic impacts. A substantial body of literature on this subject exists, notably with the help of input-output analysis, CGE and agent-based models. However, such models rely on parameters and data which [...]