Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis
Spontaneous liquefaction in saturated granular deposits: State controlled boundary and surface reconfiguration
Published: 2026-01-26
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Science and Materials, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geotechnical Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Mechanics of Materials, Mining Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
In the case of water-saturated, granular deposits that are at risk of liquefaction, engineers need reliable information about the spatial extent of soil deformation in the event of liquefaction. It is not so important for them to know the exact location of the first failure. However, existing anal-yses primarily deal with the triggering of liquefaction and offer only limited information on how [...]
Global potential of integrated biorefineries for leaf protein and sugar: Producing sustainable food and preventing starvation in catastrophes
Published: 2026-01-07
Subjects: Agriculture, Chemical Engineering, Engineering, Food Science, Risk Analysis
To accommodate population growth and shifting diets, the global protein supply must increase. Simultaneously, rising climate variability increases agricultural yield shocks, disrupting conventional crops. Worse, global catastrophes such as nuclear war or pandemics could collapse the global food system. Here, we turn to the potential of grasslands and plentiful legume biomass (e.g., alfalfa, [...]
Climate Network Analysis of Precipitation Regimes from WorldClim Data in Saudi Arabia
Published: 2025-12-12
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geography, Risk Analysis
Saudi Arabia is shaped by a hydroclimatic gradient, from the hyper-arid Rub’ al-Khali desert to the semi-arid mountains in the southwest. This gradient affects runoff generation, groundwater recharge, and drought risk, yet most studies still summarize rainfall using basic statistics from station data or gridded products. This research applies climate network analysis to identify coherent rainfall [...]
FEMA Phase-Out? Catastrophic Extremes Limit Decentralization of U.S. Flood Insurance
Published: 2025-11-13
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Risk Analysis, Sustainability, Systems Engineering
The U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) faces growing solvency and affordability pressures amid proposals to decentralize FEMA and shift disaster management to states. Many catastrophic floods span state boundaries, exposing multiple decentralized insurance pools simultaneously. Using a path-independent simulation framework that integrates risk-based premiums, [...]
Tropical cyclone risk to global electricity supply
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis
To analyse the risks from Tropical Cyclones (TC) to electricity supply, we have combined a large ensemble of TC simulations with a spatial model of power networks and people served, for the entire TC belt globally. The model of electricity power failure, measured in terms of population disrupted, was calibrated against nighttime lights satellite imagery of historic TC events. Use of spatially [...]
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
Published: 2025-09-04
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Risk Analysis
Food is the foundation of our society. We often take it for granted, but stocks are rarely available for longer than a year, and food production can be disrupted by catastrophic events, both locally and globally. To highlight such major risks to the food system, we analyzed FAO crop production data from 1961 to 2023 to find the largest crop production shock for every country and identify its [...]
Assessing uncertainty of source rock properties using Monte Carlo basin modeling – Application to Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
This study presents a Monte Carlo basin modeling framework for quantifying uncertainty in source rock property predictions by integrating geological, geophysical, and geochemical inputs. The approach accounts for variability in petrological parameters from rock physics inversion, paleo-erosion magnitudes, organic facies properties, and boundary conditions to simulate source rock properties such [...]
Screening Global Solar and Wind Energy Investment Potential Accounting for Drought and Surplus
Published: 2025-07-14
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Risk Analysis, Sustainability
Climate-induced variability of solar and wind energy impacts renewable electricity scaling. Long duration renewable energy droughts, i.e., extended periods of renewable supply deficits, lead to contract penalties or use of thermo-electric sources, while long duration surpluses result in curtailment or in low energy prices and revenue. We present the first global assessment of the implied [...]
Remote sensing for sustainable river management: Evaluating watershed vulnerability for Ganga, the world’s most densely populated river basin
Published: 2025-05-29
Subjects: Risk Analysis
When standing water mixes with wastewater, it can create serious public health and environmental concerns. This scenario is particularly dangerous in densely populated urban areas with inadequate infrastructure. Such contamination threatens to cause major public health crises in the Ganga River basin where monsoonal flooding, which is exacerbated by climate change, converges with 6 billion liters [...]
Climate Resilient Agriculture Vulnerability Mapping of Indian Districts – Directions for Future Policy Planning
Published: 2025-05-29
Subjects: Risk Analysis
Climate change poses significant risks to agriculture, especially in agro-dependent, climate-vulnerable regions and states of India. This study applies a machine learning-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to assess agricultural risks, climate vulnerability in various Indian states with diverse climatic variables to address India's 2070 net-zero goal. It addresses the existing research [...]
Nuclear Winter Could Sever Urban Water Access Across the Northern Hemisphere
Published: 2025-04-03
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Risk Analysis, Water Resource Management
The continuous functioning of the underground water supply networks is essential for many aspects of modern civilization. Therefore, it is essential to keep such critical infrastructure safe from disasters. However, existing risk assessment studies often assume relatively stable climate conditions. Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, such as those caused by a nuclear war, a large volcanic [...]
Catastrophic “Hyperclustering” and Recurrent Losses: Diagnosing U.S. Flood Insurance Insolvency Triggers
Published: 2025-03-28
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Risk Analysis, Systems Engineering
Although a cornerstone of U.S. flood risk preparedness since 1968, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), is burdened by insolvency. Despite pricing and risk assessment reforms, systemic failures persist, resulting in accumulation of billions in federal debt. This study presents an interdisciplinary framework integrating qualitative synthesis, unsupervised machine learning, and game theory [...]
City-Scale Digital Twin Framework for Flood Impact Analysis: Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Real-time Data Analytics
Published: 2025-03-17
Subjects: Computer Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis, Transportation Engineering
Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change and rapid urbanization. Traditional mapping and decision-support tools lack the capability to integrate real-time data or analyze cascading disruptions across interconnected urban systems. Digital twins offer a promising solution by enabling real-time monitoring, simulation, and optimization of urban environments. This [...]
Understanding Flood Risk in Public Transit Systems: Insights from Accessibility and Vulnerability Analysis in Iowa
Published: 2025-03-14
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Risk Analysis, Spatial Science, Transportation Engineering
Flooding is a major challenge for urban transportation systems, hindering access to essential services and jobs, especially for vulnerable populations. This study examines the impact of large flood extents on public transportation in Johnson and Linn counties, Iowa, United States, focusing on flood-prone bus routes, reduced service frequency, and access to job locations. Using Geographic [...]
Beyond Single Hazard Framework: Multi-Hazard Worst Case Scenarios from Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Published: 2025-02-21
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography, Risk Analysis
Ensemble forecasting is a powerful tool for supporting informed decision-making in managing multi-hazard risks associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Although TC ensemble forecasts are widely used in operational numerical weather prediction systems, their potential for disaster prediction and management has not been fully exploited. Here we propose a novel, efficient, and practical method to [...]