Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Environmental Sciences
A Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model for Site-Specific Tropical Cyclone Loss Quantification
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantifying the financial risk posed by landfalling tropical cyclones requires statistical methods that extend beyond the limits of a short and non-stationary historical observational record. This paper presents the mathematical formulation of an open, modular probabilistic catastrophe risk model for site-specific tropical cyclone loss estimation, structured around the four components used [...]
Intensifying salinity intrusion in the Barataria Basin, 2010 to 2026: a coastward gradient in the rate of change
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The Barataria Basin, a shallow microtidal estuary in coastal Louisiana, has lost a substantial part of its wetland area and is exposed to increasing salinity intrusion as the Mississippi River remains leveed and relative sea level rises. Salinity conditions in this basin have been described, but whether the rate at which salinity changes varies spatially across the basin has not yet been [...]
Recent Changes in Lake Chad’s Surface Water Extent: A Remote Sensing Assessment Using Sentinel-2 Land Cover Data (2017-2025)
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Lake Chad is an endorheic freshwater lake located at the junction of four countries; Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon in West-Central Africa. Lake Chad, once one of Africa’s largest freshwater bodies, has experienced significant hydrological fluctuations over the past decades. While long-term historical analyses highlight a severe 90% surface area contraction since the 1960s, short-term [...]
Seasonal and interannual dynamics of estuary connectivity along the California coast
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Environmental Sciences, Geography, Remote Sensing
Intermittently closed estuaries are globally widespread and ecologically important, yet their mouth-state dynamics are difficult to observe simultaneously at multiple estuaries, limiting understanding of how regional forcing and local controls shape estuary-ocean connectivity. We developed a multi-year record of estuary mouth connectivity for 66 intermittently closed estuaries along the [...]
Assessing the carbon footprint of a large international research program: study case of the BRIDGES kick-off meeting
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
There is a rising concern in the academic community about the environmental impact of research activities. Carbon footprints are typically evaluated at the laboratory or institutional level, but there are lacking an evaluations at the level where research is actually performed, i.e. at the level of research projects. In this work, we focus on the french BRIDGES international research program as a [...]
Extreme Precipitation Indices Trends and Patterns in the Philippines
Published: 2026-09-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology
The Philippines experiences approximately 86% of its recorded disaster events from extreme precipitation, yet national-scale trend studies remain constrained by sparse station networks and narrow index coverage. This study mapped the spatial patterns and long-term trends of 12 extreme precipitation indices across the Philippine archipelago using 45 years of daily gridded precipitation data from [...]
Characterizing and Predicting Change in the Global Ocean Biosphere: A Four-Dimensional Observing Strategy for the 2028–2037 Decadal Survey
Published: 2026-09-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Ocean ecosystems constitute the largest habitable volume on Earth and regulate climate, support fisheries and a global Blue Economy valued at an estimated $1.5 trillion annually and provide services on which human wellbeing depends. Four decades of satellite ocean color observations have transformed understanding of phytoplankton distribution, biodiversity, and productivity, and NASA's PACE [...]
Topology-Aware Quality Control of Triangulated Terrain Models Using Local Euler Curvature and Elevation-Filtration Curves
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Triangulated irregular networks (TINs) are widely used to represent topography and bathymetry, but their quali-ty control is usually dominated by geometric criteria such as minimum angle and aspect ratio, which do not test whether connectivity errors have changed the topology of the mesh. We present a topology-aware quali-ty-control framework based on a local Euler-curvature identity and on [...]
Unlocking Blue Carbon's Potential Requires Targeted Uncertainty Reductions
Published: 2026-09-18
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Oceanography, Sustainability
Coastal “blue” carbon ecosystems like swamps and marshes are among the most efficient natural carbon sinks on Earth. Consequently, restoring and conserving these wetlands is gaining interest from private and government stakeholders as a nature-based solution to offset greenhouse gas emissions and generate revenue through carbon credits. However, the financial viability of blue carbon crediting is [...]
Forecasting Lives Lost to Climate Change: A Precautionary Empirical Framework for Climate-Related Mortality
Published: 2026-09-18
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Climate-related mortality remains underdeveloped in climate-risk assessment, despite extensive evidence that climate change affects food security, extreme events, conflict risk, and several health outcomes. This study develops a simplified, precautionary empirical framework to estimate climate-related mortality across selected pathways using historical relationships among population, [...]
Comparing the effect of organic matter quality on aerobic and anaerobic greenhouse gas production in a temperate peatland
Published: 2026-09-16
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Peatlands have an outsized contribution to both carbon storage and methane (CH4) emissions relative to their land surface area. The factors controlling these fluxes are uncertain, but critical to predicting the future trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands. While the biochemical composition of organic matter (termed organic matter “quality”) has been shown to be correlated with its [...]
Efficient measurement of marine sedimentary porewater pH and oxygen concentrations using optical sensors
Published: 2026-09-15
Subjects: Chemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Porewater oxygen concentrations and pH exert substantial influence on sediment diagenesis and potentially towards the reliability of palaeoceanographic records. However, these fundamental chemical parameters are not systematically measured during sea-going expeditions. This study presents an easy, inexpensive and effective method to measure marine sediment porewater oxygen and pH levels using [...]
Spatial Coupling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Vegetation Activity, Groundwater Nitrate Occurrence, and Soil Environments Across Denmark: A 5-km Spatial Association and Soil-Stratified Analysis
Published: 2026-09-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Integrated environmental assessment increasingly requires the joint analysis of atmospheric emissions, vegetation dynamics, groundwater quality, and soil context rather than isolated thematic mapping. We developed a Denmark-wide 5-km analytical grid in EPSG:25832 containing 1,803 cells and harmonized four continuous environmental indicators: CO2 and CH4 emissions from EDGAR, vegetation activity [...]
Aged commercial imidacloprid formulation alters the thermal, optical, and electrical behavior of aqueous matrices
Published: 2026-09-11
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Environmental persistence of neonicotinoid insecticides is influenced by their long-term stability and interactions with aqueous matrices. In this study, the thermal, optical, and electrical properties of a commercial imidacloprid formulation (Confidor 350 SC) were characterized under environmentally representative conditions. Solutions were prepared using three types of water (Distilled, Rain, [...]
Kaya-guided hybrid deep learning for leave-country-out estimation of national CO2 emissions: a 112-country benchmark with country-clustered inference, conformal uncertainty, and explainable AI
Published: 2026-09-10
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Reliable national CO2 inventories underpin the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency 1national emissions modelling as leave-country-out (LOCO) estimation: predicting a country’s per-capita CO2 from eight-year trajectories of energy and socioeconomic covariates, with no access to its own emission history. Using Global Carbon Budget and Energy Institute data harmonized by Our World in Data, we [...]