Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Statistics and Probability
mineralML: Leveraging Machine Learning for Probabilistic Mineral Classification
Published: 2026-03-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Volcanology
Characterizing phase assemblages in igneous rocks and the chemical variability within these phases is the fundamental basis of many petrological investigations. We present mineralML (mineral classification using Machine Learning), an open-source Python package that classifies common igneous minerals based on oxide chemical data, with prediction scores. mineralML employs a two-stage neural [...]
Robust Uneven Shift of Extreme Storm Surges Observed in Data Sparse Northeast Indian Ocean Cities
Published: 2026-03-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Reanalysis-driven storm surge datasets enable extreme analysis in data-sparse regions, but most studies translate these time series into extremes using a single statistical model, leaving model-selection uncertainty unquantified. In this study, we analyze ERA5-forced surge residual dataset (1950–2024) from Copernicus Climate Change Service for 11 Northeast Indian Ocean (NIO) cities using an [...]
Probabilistic modelling of pharmaceutical pollution risk from sewage treatment work discharges using a Bayesian Network: application to a Scottish river catchment
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Pharmacology, Toxicology and Environmental Health, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
Pharmaceuticals are increasingly recognised as a class of emerging contaminants of concern in rivers. Their continuous release from human use and variable removal in sewage treatment works (STWs) can produce ecologically relevant concentrations and contribute to antimicrobial resistance. We developed a probabilistic catchment-scale model based on a Bayesian Network (BN) to quantify pharmaceutical [...]
Application of statistical downscaling models to assess climate change impacts on the East Rapti River Basin using the Rx5day index
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Statistics and Probability
A landlocked, mountains-dominated country, Nepal is one such country that is highly susceptible to climate change. The East Rapti River Basin (ERRB), a sensitive corridor, is under extreme threats due to flooding as well as rainfall variability. The study aims to evaluate the performance of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in simulating historical rainfall and to project future changes in [...]
Resource expansion with uncertainty quantification of regolith-hosted REE deposits using radiometric data
Published: 2025-12-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Rare earth elements (REE) are critical raw materials due to their essential role in modern technologies. In regolith-hosted REE (RH-REE) deposits a substantial fraction of the REE is present as ionically adsorbed, exchangeable cations on secondary clay minerals and amenable to mild extraction routes potentially being less environmentally disruptive than conventional hard-rock REE operations. [...]
Multi-Planar Hierarchy in Pan-American Seismic Fractality: A Bayesian Resolution to the Projection Paradox
Published: 2025-12-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Earthquake catalogs worldwide exhibit an enduring paradox: seismicity appears confined to planar faults (correlation dimension D2≈ 2.0), yet operates within volumetric lithospheric deformation. We resolve this paradox through Bayesian fractal analysis of 50,010 earthquakes across seven Pan-American tectonic regimes (2010–2025), revealing that apparent planarity reflects instrumental projection [...]
A generalized additive mixed-effect modeling approach for characterizing Sentinel-2 surface reflectances of visible light from Torch Lake in Antrim County, Michigan, 2019-2025
Published: 2025-11-18
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability
A generalized additive model (GAM) and three generalized additive mixed-effect models (GAMMs) were developed and compared to describe variations of surface reflectances of visible light from Torch Lake in the blue, green, and red bands from Sentinel 2 satellite imagery. All models included fixed effects associated with water-depth intervals, satellite orbits, trend, and smooth effects associated [...]
The Tocantins Framework: A Machine Learning-Based Assessment of Intra-urban Thermal Anomalies
Published: 2025-11-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has been extensively studied at the city scale. Yet, the Intra-Urban Heat Island and the Intra-Urban Cool Island effects remain poorly characterized due to the absence of standardized quantification frameworks. This study introduces the Tocantins Framework, a dual-metric system combining machine learning and spatial morphology to identify and quantify [...]
Climate factors related to the dengue incidence in Costa Rica and future projections under scenario SSP5-8.5.
Published: 2025-10-24
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Statistics and Probability
This article has three objectives: 1) modeling the climate-dengue relationship at the smallest administrative division (districts) using high-resolution data; 2) use of an objective algorithm for the selection of predictors that results in parsimonious models, cross-validated to prevent overfitting; and 3) using estimates from CMIP6 climate models to provide mid-century (2035-2065) potential [...]
Classifying Climate Benefits and Addressing Trade-offs of Timber Use in Buildings for Voluntary Carbon Markets and the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework
Published: 2025-07-31
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Materials Science and Engineering, Other Engineering, Planetary Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Timber use in construction is increasingly promoted as a climate mitigation option due to its potential for carbon storage and material substitution. Current classifications often conflate storage with carbon removal, risking misalignment with voluntary carbon market integrity frameworks and the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework. This paper evaluates the scientific and methodological [...]
Assessing uncertainty in source rock properties using Monte Carlo basin modeling: Application to the Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
This study presents a Monte Carlo basin modeling framework for quantifying uncertainty in source rock property predictions by integrating geological, geophysical, and geochemical inputs. The approach accounts for variability in petrological parameters from rock physics inversion, paleo-erosion magnitudes, organic facies properties, and boundary conditions to simulate source rock properties such [...]
Artificial Intelligence in Climate Science: A State-of-the-Art Review (2020–2025)
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events and posing complex challenges to human and natural systems. In parallel, rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) offer new tools to tackle climate science problems. AI can analyze vast climate datasets, improve forecasts, and optimize climate solutions at scales and speeds beyond traditional methods. For [...]
Statistical rock physics inversion for assessing source rock properties from seismic signatures: an application to the Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Quantifying source rock properties is essential for subsurface characterization but remains a high-dimensional and nonlinear inverse problem. A statistical rock physics inversion workflow is implemented to efficiently estimate source rock properties from seismic and well-log data and quantify associated uncertainty. A thermal-maturation-dependent rock physics model is calibrated through Monte [...]
Spatio-economic valuation of sand in the context of shoreline (in)stability in the Senegal estuary (West Africa), integrating DeltaDTM and LiDAR technology
Published: 2025-04-24
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Natural Resource Economics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Statistics and Probability
Coastal erosion is an increasing challenge in coastal management, resulting from complex interactions between geomorphological features, marine forcing, and anthropogenic interventions. The growing influence of human development and intervention on estuaries and coastal area evolution has led to a global sediment crisis, particularly in tropical or low-lying deltas (for example, Niger, Senegal, [...]
Understanding the Li resource of granite hosted geothermal brines using near surface measurements
Published: 2024-10-17
Subjects: Chemistry, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Unprecedented demand for lithium (Li) is being driven by its use in electric vehicle batteries. Currently, the majority of Li comes from pegmatite mining and salar brines, however, new sources such as geothermal brines will be required to meet future demand. The North Pennines, Northern England has been found to host brines with lithium concentrations exceeding 90 mg/L at depths of 411 to 996 m. [...]