Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Dynamical Systems
Ensemble Kalman, Adaptive Gaussian Mixture, and Particle Flow Filters for Optimized Earthquake Forecasting
Published: 2024-06-01
Subjects: Dynamical Systems, Geophysics and Seismology, Other Statistics and Probability
Probabilistic forecasts are regarded as the highest achievable goal when predicting earthquakes, but limited information on stress, strength, and governing parameters of the seismogenic sources affects their accuracy. Ensemble data-assimilation methods, such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), estimate these variables by combining physics-based models and observations.While the EnKF has [...]
A genetic model of the magnetite-apatite deposits on El Laco volcano by extrusion of iron-rich melt
Published: 2022-08-25
Subjects: Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geochemistry, Geology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
Magnetite-apatite deposits are important sources of iron and other metals. A prominent exam- ple are the magnetite lavas at the El Laco volcano, Northern Chile. Their formation processes remain debated. Here, we test the genetic hypothesis that an Fe-rich melt separated from silicate magma and ascended along collapse-related fractures. We complement recent analy- ses with thermodynamic modelling [...]
Groundwater connections and sustainability in social-ecological systems
Published: 2022-04-08
Subjects: Dynamical Systems, Hydrology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Groundwater resources are connected with social, economic, ecological, and Earth systems. We introduce the framing of groundwater-connected systems to better represent the nature and complexity of these connections in data collection, scientific investigations, governance and management approaches, and groundwater education. Groundwater-connected systems are social, economic, ecological, or Earth [...]
Flow-dependent and dynamical systems analyses of predictability of the Pacific-North American summertime circulation
Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences
Forecast skills of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and intrinsic predictability can be flow-dependent, e.g., different among weather regimes. Here, we have examined the predictability of distinct Pacific-North American weather regimes in June-September. Four weather regimes are identified using a self-organizing map analysis of daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, and are [...]
The impact of intermittency on bed load sediment transport
Published: 2021-02-09
Subjects: Dynamical Systems, Geomorphology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Sediment transport by wind or water near the threshold of grain motion is dominated by rare transport events. This intermittency makes it difficult to calibrate sediment transport laws, or to define an unambiguous threshold for grain entrainment, both of which are crucial for predicting sediment transport rates. We present a model that captures this intermittency and show that the noisy [...]
Deep spatial transformers for autoregressive data-driven forecasting of geophysical turbulence
Published: 2020-07-06
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Computer Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
A deep spatial transformer based encoder-decoder model has been developed to autoregressively predict the time evolution of the upper layers stream function of a two-layered quasi-geostrophic (QG) system without any information about the lower layers stream function. The spatio-temporal complexity of QG flow is comparable to the complexity of 500hPa Geopotential Height (Z500) of fully coupled [...]