Preprints
Search for earthquake (601 results)
Forty+ Years of Post-Earthquake Reconnaissance: Methodological Evolution Across Three Phases of EEFIT Activity
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Over four decades, the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) has undertaken around 50 missions in around 35 countries, evolving from a structural-engineering field programme into a hybrid platform integrating fieldwork, remote sensing, community-based data collection, and longitudinal return studies. Founded in 1982 as a joint venture between UK academic institutions and the [...]
Assembly areas as urban infrastructure: disaster governance, spatial equity, and the protection of public open space in seismically exposed cities
Published: 2026-05-11
Subjects: Engineering, Physical and Environmental Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Disaster assembly areas - designated open spaces where populations gather following a major earthquake - represent a critical but neglected component of urban resilience infrastructure. Using Istanbul as a primary case study, this Perspective examines how assembly area provision has been systematically eroded through routine planning decisions made outside the disaster management apparatus. Our [...]
TiMEpy: A Python Package for Analyzing Tidal Modulation of Fast and Slow Earthquakes
Published: 2026-05-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Due to interactions between the solid Earth and tidal forces, the crust experiences continuous stress perturbations. Understanding how earthquakes respond to tidal stresses provides unique insights into the mechanisms governing earthquake nucleation. Here, we present TiMEpy, an open-source Python package designed to detect tidal modulation in both fast and slow earthquakes. TiMEpy includes [...]
Extreme recharge triggers seismicity in a confined karst aquifer in southern Spain
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Tectonics and Structure
Hydrological forcing during extreme recharge events can perturb crustal stress and trigger seismicity in a critically stressed crust, yet the coupling between aquifer dynamics and the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake swarms remains poorly constrained. Here we document such a response during an exceptional rainfall episode in early 2026 that affected a confined karst aquifer in southern [...]
Towards Prospective Disaster Risk Management: Mapping Multi-hazard Urban Risk Dynamics Driven by Evolving Exposure and Vulnerability via Earth Observation
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Categorical Data Analysis, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Geographic Information Sciences, Human Geography, Other Computer Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Risk Analysis, Spatial Science, Structural Engineering
As local governments increasingly adopt geospatial Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) to inform prospective public policy, the reliability of existing static risk intelligence is challenged by the continuous evolution of building exposure, population distribution, and physical vulnerability. Recent multi-temporal datasets of the built environment, derived from Earth Observation and [...]
Intensifying Seismicity beneath Mount Teide: Assessing the Probability of an Imminent Eruption on Tenerife
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
Recent seismic swarms in the western sector of the Las Cañadas Caldera (Tenerife, Canary Islands) have raised concerns regarding the potential for renewed eruptive activity at Teide. Although the earthquakes were of small magnitude and occurred at depths of around 6-12 km, their detection and media coverage generated public concern on an island visited by millions of tourists each year. Teide [...]
Closing the Duration Gap in RVT: The Energetic Duration
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering
Duration is a fundamental descriptor of earthquake ground motion, yet it remains ill-defined across engineering seismology, with numerous threshold-based measures adopted for specific applications. This ambiguity has allowed duration to function as a calibration parameter in analyses such as random vibration theory (RVT), where it is often adjusted to match observed response spectra. This paper [...]
Dueling dynamics of low-angle normal fault rupture with splay faulting and off-fault damage
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
Despite a lack of modern large earthquakes on shallowly dipping normal faults, Holocene Mw>7 low-angle normal fault (LANF; dip<30°) ruptures are preserved paleoseismically and inferred from historical earthquake and tsunami accounts. Even in well-recorded megathrust earthquakes, the effects of non-linear off-fault plasticity and dynamically reactivated splay faults on shallow deformation [...]
The Geological Pathway Diversity Model (GPDM): A Unified Classification and Predictive Framework for Anomalous Luminous Phenomena
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Other Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Atmospheric plasma phenomena — persistent luminous orbs, recurrent earth lights, and earthquake lights observed at geographically distributed sites worldwide — share a common mechanism family rooted in stress-activated electronic charge carrier physics. The Geological Pathway Diversity Model (GPDM) formally classifies six geological activation pathways. Version 2.4 introduces four new Variable 3 [...]
Fractal Tomography and the Fisher Information Barrier of Seismicity: Addressing the Origin of Dual Paradoxes via Precision-Calibrated Bayesian Inference
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Non-linear Dynamics, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure
The spatial organization of seismicity presents dual multi-decade paradoxes: (1) earthquake catalogs exhibit quasi-planar correlation dimensions (D2 ≈ 2.0–2.6) despite volumetric lithospheric deformation (geometric projection paradox), and (2) Bayesian inference systematically yields D3 ≈ 3.0 contradicting structural geology (Bayesian saturation paradox). We address both through the Fractal [...]
The 2025 𝑀𝑤 7.1 Tingri (South Tibet) Earthquake: Rupture of Normal Conjugate Optimally Oriented Faults, Shallow Coseismic Slip Deficit, and Early Afterslip
Published: 2026-04-05
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
On 7 January 2025, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Tingri County at the south of the Tibetan Plateau, China, producing widespread damage in the Lhatse-Sa'gya-Tingri region and adjacent areas. The earthquake ruptured a pair of conjugate north-south striking normal faults in the Dengmecuo graben, and was the largest normal earthquake instrumentally recorded in the region. We use Interferometric [...]
Bayesian Calibration of dynamic models of earthquake sequences using observations from past large earthquakes
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Physics-based models of the earthquake cycle could be used for time-dependent hazard assessment. For such an application, their parameters must be calibrated so that simulated earthquake sequences reproduce the statistics of past earthquakes, including recurrence statistics and magnitudes. This is challenging because the dynamics are described by nonlinear partial differential equations, initial [...]
Seismological models based on a hybrid deep-learning strategy reveal tectonic features and earthquake risk in the Sichuan-Yunnan region
Published: 2026-03-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Sichuan-Yunnan region is a critical tectonic zone for understanding continental deformation and seismic hazards. We developed a hybrid deep-learning strategy that integrates multi-scale phase picking and high-precision first-motion polarity identification, significantly improving regional seismic monitoring. This approach yielded a unified 2013-2022 high-resolution dataset, including -180,000 [...]
On the Origin of Directional Variability in Earthquake Response Spectra: A Stochastic Covariance Framework
Published: 2026-03-22
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology
Directional variability of horizontal earthquake response spectra is commonly described using rotation-based measures such as RotD50 and RotD100, yet its physical and statistical origin remains unclear. This study shows that directional anisotropy arises fundamentally from finite-sample fluctuations of the covariance matrix of filtered ground-motion response. Even under perfectly isotropic [...]
Comprehensive Inventory of Coseismic Landslides Triggered by the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye
Published: 2026-03-19
Subjects: Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology
We provide two geospatial inventories covering ~80,000 km² in southern Türkiye for the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence: (i) a coseismic landslide polygon inventory including 20,270 landslides and (ii) a pre-earthquake geomorphic inventory of pre-existing slope instability including 4,495 landslide polygons. Coseismic landslides were mapped by systematic expert visual [...]