Preprints
Search for earthquake (663 results)
Source Representation and Earthquake-Ocean Coupling in Tsunami Generation by the 2020 Samos Normal-Faulting Earthquake
Published: 2026-11-07
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
The 2020 Mw 7.0 Samos normal-faulting earthquake produced damaging ground shaking and a destructive local tsunami. We construct a three-dimensional kinematic rupture model from a finite-fault inversion and use its shear stress changes to inform two dynamic rupture models. We initialize a non-linear shallow-water tsunami simulation with instantaneous Okada displacement and source one-way linked [...]
The width beyond a static arrest point predicts which static arrests span the fault
Published: 2026-11-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Population models treat a static arrest as the end of the rupture, although some of those arrests span the fault in a fully dynamic calculation. This paper tests whether the static crack itself shows which ones. A static stress-intensity criterion and a fully dynamic rupture were compared on 180 new random stress fields on one 120 km antiplane fault with linear slip weakening. The predictor is [...]
Seismic Discrimination of Natural and Anthropogenic Events Near Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Published: 2026-10-27
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Distinguishing small earthquakes from anthropogenic seismic sources is important for accurate fault characterization and seismic hazard assessment, yet remains challenging in regions with sparse seismic networks and frequent quarry activities. Around Atlanta, Georgia, only a small number of local natural earthquakes and one operator-confirmed quarry blast in July 2026 are reported in regional [...]
Assessing Basin Amplification and Rupture Directivity Effects Using Physics-Based Ground Motion Simulations in Wellington
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
Near-surface velocity structure plays a crucial role in modulating ground motion, and, in turn, contributes to seismic risk. However, a complete understanding of the basin effect is limited, owing to the paucity of detailed shallow basin structure, geological structures and near-field seismic sources. In this study, we perform physics-based simulations of ground motions incorporating the [...]
Unified Explanation of Long-Period Ground Motion Using the Basin Sloshing Index (BSI): A Dimensionless Analysis of Large-Scale Sloshing Phenomena in Sedimentary Basins
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study introduces a new dimensionless index, the Basin Sloshing Index (BSI), to provide a unified explanation for long-period ground motion and persistent shaking observed in large sedimentary basins. Inspired by fluid sloshing dynamics, BSI is defined using three fundamental parameters—the basin scale L, seismic wavelength λ, and attenuation factor Q —and takes the simplified [...]
On-Fault Parameters and Fault Connectivity Control Synthetic Earthquake Catalogs and 30-Year Rupture Probabilities in RSQSim Simulations of the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The faults in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area in California have long been known as a source of seismic hazard. This potential for large earthquakes, paired with high population density and economic activity leads to high seismic risk in the Bay Area. In this study we utilize the physics-based earthquake simulator RSQSim to generate synthetic earthquake catalogs for the San Francisco East Bay. [...]
Fear without a dose-response: real-time crowdsourced psychometrics show a moderate earthquake’s psychological footprint is decoupled from shaking intensity in an anticipation-primed megacity
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Fear shapes how populations respond to earthquakes, yet it is almost always measured retrospectively, once it cannot be separated from the damage. On 23 April 2025 a MW 6.2 earthquake shook Istanbul – a megacity that has anticipated a major rupture for 25 years – at ground motions below design level, causing one death and light damage. Using a validated earthquake-fear instrument delivered in [...]
Stabilizing seismic source inversion by accounting for P-wave picking uncertainty: A waveform-shift covariance approach
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In seismic source inversion using teleseismic P waves, P-wave arrival times are picked from observed waveforms and used to adjust their timing relative to the predicted arrivals. However, uncertainty in the picked arrival times remains after this correction. Picking errors shift the entire waveform and produce temporally correlated waveform errors. If these errors are not properly accounted for, [...]
A static arrest criterion classifies some fault-spanning ruptures as arrested
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A static arrest length and a fully dynamic rupture are compared, one rupture at a time, for 60 antiplane and 60 in-plane cases on one 120 km fault with linear slip weakening and one correlation length of the initial stress. The standard deviations were fixed before those ruptures were drawn. The comparison tests the rule, used to build earthquake populations, that a rupture stops where its static [...]
Development of a Combined Detection and Relocation Workflow (TM2DD) to Characterize Escalating Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity in the Karnes Trough Fault Zone of the Eagle Ford Shale Play, Texas
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
On January 30, 2025, an M4.7 earthquake shook the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas, the region's second M4 event in under eighteen months. Unlike much of the central United States, where induced seismicity stems from wastewater disposal, most of the earthquakes in the Eagle Ford are linked to hydraulic fracturing (HF) (Fasola et al., 2019; Fasola & Brudzinski, 2023). If HF-induced, the 2025 event [...]
Post-event information in annual satellite embeddings inflates the apparent performance of landslide susceptibility models: a paired audit of 18 events
Published: 2026-10-20
Subjects: Geomorphology
Landslide susceptibility models are often evaluated by spatial cross-validation on the inventory of a single event. When predictors come from annual satellite products, the layer for the event year can also record the event's aftermath. We audited 18 earthquake- and rainfall-triggered events with 61,402 landslide locations, changing only the input year of AlphaEarth Foundations embeddings while [...]
Fitful but sustained rupture of the 2026 Mw 7.6 Venezuela earthquake
Published: 2026-10-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The devastating 2026 Venezuela earthquake was cataloged as a doublet of \Mw~7.2 and 7.5 events. Combining NISAR and ALOS-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar data, teleseismic source imaging, and ensemble Kalman inversion of multiple moment tensors and dynamic rupture simulations, we show that the 2026 Venezuela earthquake was instead a single \Mw~7.6 event with variable rupture speed and seismic moment [...]
Active hazardous slow faults drive drainage evolution in the Atacama Desert
Published: 2026-10-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Tectonics and Structure
The Atacama Desert of the Central Andean forearc is the driest non-polar region on Earth, where extremely low erosion rates preserve geomorphic markers over Myr timescales. Between 19°S and 20°S, subtle Quaternary east-vergent reverse faults deform the west-sloping landscape and disrupt drainage development. This setting provides a unique opportunity to investigate fault evolution, uplift [...]
Along-strike stress delays the ordering of slip on a fixed-length fault
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The size of a large earthquake depends on how far the rupture runs and how much the fault slips. An early correlation with magnitude can appear while those two contributions are still mixed. Patches at both ends stop every rupture on a 120 km fault, so the length no longer varies and the early order is an order of slip. One background stress is a single value along the fault, and the other also [...]
Evaluating Dynamic Viability of Finite-Fault Slip Models with Ensemble Kalman Inversion
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Finite-fault slip models are widely used to infer earthquake rupture processes, yet they are inherently non-unique and do not guarantee physically consistent rupture evolution. Here, we develop a data-constrained framework that couples Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) with large-scale 3D dynamic rupture simulations to efficiently evaluate the dynamic viability of finite-fault slip models. The [...]