Preprints
Search for earthquake (583 results)
Time-dependent forecast of large earthquakes from physics-informed probabilistic approach
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The elastic energy that fuels large earthquakes accumulates heterogeneously along faults, resulting in complex earthquake occurrence patterns. Although earthquake cycle simulations help capture such complexity in seismic hazard models, their high computational cost prevents widespread use and uncertainty quantification. Here, we propose a physics-based probabilistic method to forecast the timing [...]
Interplay between geometry and brittle deformation of bedrock fault scarps
Published: 2026-03-01
Subjects: Geology, Tectonics and Structure
Energy built up during interseismic phases is released during earthquakes as seismic energy and dissipated within fault zones. Seismological observations indicate spatial variations in earthquake behavior across a fault (e.g., rupture speed, stress drop, wave directivity). However, how this relates to energy dissipation through brittle fracturing in the fault zone is difficult to quantify from [...]
Foreshock Acceleration Linked to Slow Earthquakes Before a Large Earthquake: Implications for Two-Stage Aseismic Processes
Published: 2026-02-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Foreshocks are important for understanding the initiation process of large earthquakes. It has long been suggested that the acceleration of foreshock activity is driven by precursory aseismic fault slip. However, observational evidence supporting this relationship remains limited. Furthermore, while slow earthquakes—diverse low-velocity fault slip phenomena—frequently occur at plate boundaries, [...]
EQ-INSAR: A Python Package for Generating Synthetic Earthquake InSAR Deformation Data
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Remote Sensing
EQ-INSAR is an open-source Python package for generating synthetic Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) surface deformation data from earthquake sources. The package implements the Davis (1986) point source model to compute three component ground displacement from double-couple earthquake mechanisms. Then it projects the displacement onto satellite line-of-sight (LOS) geometries to [...]
Backstress governs transient postseismic creep in the continental lithospheric mantle
Published: 2026-02-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the physical processes that control how the continental lithospheric mantle responds to sudden stress changes during the earthquake cycle is essential for interpreting postseismic deformation and constraining the rheological behaviour of the mantle. Laboratory studies have revealed that long-range elastic interactions among dislocations generate backstresses that strongly influence [...]
Directional Peak Factors of Strong-Motion Response Spectra: A Stochastic Field Representation on the Circle
Published: 2026-02-20
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Structural Engineering
Directional variability in horizontal earthquake ground motions is often addressed using orientation-independent intensity measures obtained by rotating the two horizontal components and summarizing the resulting response spectra. In contrast, the stochastic structure of directional peak factors, which connect second-order response measures to extreme response levels, has received limited [...]
Rotation-Invariant Ground-Motion as Directional Selection Operators: A Closed-Form Framework for RotD Response Spectra
Published: 2026-02-20
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Structural Engineering
Horizontal earthquake ground motion is inherently two-dimensional, yet most engineering applications rely on scalar intensity measures. Rotation-invariant response spectra such as RotD50, MaxRotD50, and RotD100 are widely used to remove dependence on sensor orientation. They are often treated as direction-free scalars, which they are not. In this study, directional pseudo-spectral acceleration is [...]
A preliminary seismic catalog for the Mozambique Channel
Published: 2026-02-12
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
The Mozambique Channel is a 1,600-km long, 950 – 1,000-km wide deep-water arm of southwestern Indian Ocean, located between Mozambique and Madagascar Island. The channel hosts the offshore continuation of the East African Rift System, an active divergent plate boundary that has propagated from the African continent, across Mesozoic continental rifted margins, into Mesozoic oceanic lithosphere. [...]
Evidence of a ULVZ near Vanuatu from Sdiff postcursors
Published: 2026-02-06
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Thin anomalous structures known as ultra-low velocity zones (ULVZs) have been found on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and have extreme velocity reductions. These features are detected due to their effect on seismic waves that travel through them, typically producing precursors or postcursors. In this study we use postcursors to shear core-diffracted waves (Sdiff+) that sample the CMB near Vanuatu [...]
Elevated in-situ Vp/Vs preceding hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes
Published: 2026-02-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Effective management of seismic hazard in geo-energy development demands real-time estimates of subsurface fault instability. However, real-time monitoring of pore pressure change during subsurface fluid injection remains challenging. Here, we present a novel high-resolution, non-tomographic monitoring strategy that tracks the ratio of seismic wave speeds (Vp/Vs) as a proxy for pore pressure [...]
Analyzing volcanic-like earthquakes with distributed acoustic sensing using a short segment of the Tongan seafloor telecommunications cable
Published: 2026-01-30
Subjects: Volcanology
The 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai (HTHH) eruption highlighted the need for monitoring submarine volcanoes. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), utilizing existing seafloor cables offers a promising solution. We analyze a one-week DAS dataset recorded in February 2023, one year after the eruption, using a 30-km segment of the domestic telecommunication cable in Tonga. The previous study (Nakano et [...]
Do 3D Dynamic Rupture Models Capture the Variability in Long-Period Velocity Pulses? Insights from the 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake
Published: 2026-01-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Capturing ground motion variability, especially in near-fault long-period velocity pulses, is a key challenge for seismic hazard assessment. Empirical methods often rely on simplified assumptions and may not fully capture the non-linear interplay of source, path, and site effects. Physics-based dynamic rupture simulations offer a self-consistent alternative, but their ability to reproduce [...]
Estimation of Near-Surface Density using Vertical Gravity Gradients in Central and Western Japan
Published: 2026-01-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The Vertical Gravity Gradient (VGG), derived from the difference between terrestrial and airborne gravity data, highlights shallow density contrasts. We estimated the near-surface density structure of Central and Western Japan using VGGs derived from terrestrial data within 3 km of airborne flight lines. We constructed an inversion model on a 1/7-degree grid to estimate surface density and a [...]
A detailed picture of Haiti’s seismicity given by deep learning and template matching
Published: 2026-01-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Haiti regularly experiences destructive earthquakes, but seismic monitoring in the region has historically been limited. Recent deployments of citizen-hosted RaspberryShake seismometers and temporary seismic deployment following the 2021 Mw 7.2 earthquake provide new data to study the region’s seismotectonics. However, high noise levels at many stations, in particular the RaspberryShake ones, [...]
The Coupling Cloud: A community database of megathrust kinematic coupling models
Published: 2026-01-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Kinematic coupling models inverted from geodetic data are widely used to evaluate how slip deficit is distributed along subduction megathrusts during the interseismic period, and are central to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment. Yet, existing coupling models differ widely in methodology and inputs, lack common community standards, and are scattered across publications and repositories. [...]