Preprints
Search for earthquake (616 results)
Deep Neural Network-Based Inversion of Turbidites in Confined Basins
Published: 2026-07-11
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Fluid Dynamics, Geology, Sedimentology
Turbidites generated by large earthquakes and other geological events are commonly preserved in small, topographically confined basins along active continental margins. Reconstructing flow conditions from these deposits is essential for assessing past hazards; however, existing inverse models have been validated only for unconfined settings, and their applicability to confined basins remains [...]
Inferring the sub-surface connectivity and structural maturity of the Roccapreturo normal fault system, Central Apeninnes, Italy, using high-resolution structural mapping
Published: 2026-07-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Constraining how active faults link together in the sub-surface and understanding how fault geometry and structural maturity affect earthquake propagation are key tools for understanding earthquake behaviour and seismic hazard. We use the Roccapreturo fault system, from the Central Apennines, Italy, which has three closely spaced normal faults mapped at the surface as a case study to explore [...]
Leakage-audited machine learning versus ETAS for earthquake forecasting in the Sea of Marmara
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Sea of Marmara’s locked central fault lies beneath ~18 million people; the 2025 Mw 6.2 Kumburgaz earthquake renewed forecasting interest. We present a leakage-audited benchmark on a homogenized, strictly causal KOERI catalogue: causality is machine-checkable (a truncated-catalogue self-test), and every comparison is adjudicated by a pre-specified block bootstrap requiring both paired [...]
Model Construction and Retrospective Validation of Large Earthquake Prediction
Published: 2026-06-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Based on the hypothesis that gravity-driven crustal displacement generates earthquakes and facilitates crustal material migration, and following the general law that the velocity of generalized flow in a steady-state system is proportional to the driving force and inversely proportional to the system’s internal resistance, a relationship between the frequency of large earthquakes and crustal [...]
Earthquakes Source Scaling at Subfault Scales
Published: 2026-06-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Establishing scaling laws for large earthquakes remains challenging due to the heterogeneity of methodologies and datasets used to produce finite-fault models. In this study, we analyze source properties for 264 earthquakes using the NEIC finite-fault database, expanding previous efforts by examining rupture behavior over a broader magnitude range and capturing both established scaling trends and [...]
Tectonic pump closes the evolutionary loop for long-buried subseafloor microbes
Published: 2026-06-23
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Tectonics and Structure
Deep marine sediments host one of Earth’s largest microbial biospheres, yet most cells in this environment persist in a non-growing state for thousands to millions of years beneath kilometers of sediment. For natural selection to favor such extraordinary long-term survival, a mechanism must exist that is capable of returning buried living populations to near-surface environments, where [...]
Stress triggering in a rain-induced earthquake swarm in the Palghar region, western India
Published: 2026-06-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rain-triggered seismicity has been reported only in a few regions globally and is typically short-lived. However, an earthquake swarm, inferred to be rain-induced in previous studies, persisted with intense activity for over two years in Palghar, western India. Between January 2019 and November 2020, ~8,300 well-located earthquakes with horizontal and depth uncertainties ≤ 1.5 km were recorded at [...]
Socio-Demographic Predictors of Earthquake Preparedness Among University Students: Evidence from a Public University in Bangladesh
Published: 2026-06-21
Subjects: Geography
Bangladesh is exceptionally prone to recurring hydrological and meteorological disasters, which have traditionally dominated the national policy and disaster management discourse. Consequently, seismic risk remains heavily underemphasized, leaving major urban centers like Dhaka highly vulnerable to catastrophic human and structural losses from potential earthquakes. While structural mitigation [...]
Linking double seismic zones to oceanic lithosphere rheological layering: the role of mid-lithospheric discontinuities
Published: 2026-06-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The origin of the ubiquitous lower seismic layer (LSL) in double seismic zones (DSZs) within subducting oceanic lithosphere remains one of the most persistent unresolved problems in subduction-zone seismicity. Analysis of recent geophysical observations reveals a close spatial association between the LSL and the oceanic mid-lithospheric discontinuity (MLD), a feature attributed to the [...]
Effects of loading schemes in volumetric simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) in subduction zones
Published: 2026-06-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
State-of-the-art simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) require realistic loading conditions and physics-based constitutive laws to produce the full spectrum of fault slip. Previous studies have shown that loading schemes may affect long-term system behavior, including earthquake recurrence intervals. However, the effects of loading schemes on rupture characteristics and [...]
Coseismic uplift as strandplain-building mechanism: morphodynamic and stratigraphic evidence from the 2010 Maule earthquake, south-central Chile
Published: 2026-06-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Tectonics and Structure
Coseismic uplift along convergent margins drives rapid coastal progradation, yet its short-term morpho-stratigraphic response remains poorly documented at human timescales. Here we integrate four complementary high-resolution proxies: satellite-derived shorelines, multi-temporal mapping of the seaward dune vegetation line (SVDL), ground-penetrating radar stratigraphy, and UAV–LiDAR topographic [...]
Empirical Relationships Between Ground Motion Intensities and JMA Seismic Intensity Scale
Published: 2026-06-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There is a growing appetite for parametric Japanese earthquake insurance products that use Japanese Meteorological Agency seismic intensity, IJMA, triggers. However, most earthquake risk models used to price these contracts do not compute IJMA directly, instead relying on conversions that introduce additional basis risk. Here, we present empirical parameterisations of IJMA as a function of all [...]
A Bayesian ground-motion model for volcano-tectonic earthquakes in southwest Iceland
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Tectonics and Structure
Volcano-tectonic earthquakes in Iceland and other volcanic regions produce ground motions that differ systematically from those of ordinary shallow crustal tectonic earthquakes. The recent unrest on the Reykjanes Peninsula has provided an exceptional opportunity to quantify these differences, with multiple intense swarms preceding and accompanying eruptive episodes. Building on Hernández-Aguirre [...]
A kinematic rupture generator for ground-motion simulations: Validation and scenarios in South Iceland
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Tectonics and Structure
Physics-based ground-motion simulation can reduce epistemic uncertainty in regions with sparse strong-motion data, but hazard applications require rupture ensembles that are physically plausible, statistically controlled, and computationally efficient. We present a modular kinematic rupture generator for physics-based simulations (PBS) in which final slip, rupture speed ratio (VR/VS), and peak [...]
Operationalising EMS-98 Damage Classification: A UAV-to-GIS Pipeline for Macroseismic Survey Support
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Post-earthquake macroseismic surveying often relies on ground-based visual inspections that are slow, costly, and difficult to scale in the immediate aftermath of a seismic event. Deep-learning damage detectors have advanced substantially in recent years, yet their outputs are rarely translated into operational deployment tools that yield a georeferenced dataframe of buildings aligned with the [...]