Preprints
Search for earthquake (569 results)
The Coupling Cloud: A community database of megathrust kinematic coupling models
Published: 2026-01-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Kinematic coupling models inverted from geodetic data are widely used to evaluate how slip deficit is distributed along subduction megathrusts during the interseismic period, and are central to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment. Yet, existing coupling models differ widely in methodology and inputs, lack common community standards, and are scattered across publications and repositories. [...]
Role of Lithospheric and Upper-Mantle Heterogeneities in Controlling Intraplate Seismicity in Central and Southeastern Brazil
Published: 2026-01-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology
Seismicity in Central and Southeastern Brazil is spatially heterogeneous, with active zones showing little correspondence to major geological provinces, a pattern typical of many intraplate settings worldwide. While previous studies have explored possible controls using geophysical observations, the relative roles of crustal and upper-mantle heterogeneities in shaping the regional stress fields [...]
Modeling Lithospheric Radioactivity Influence on Atmospheric Electric Properties relative to Earthquakes
Published: 2026-01-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study presents a mathematical exploration of the atmospheric electric field components resulting from radon-induced ionization, with implications in the study of earthquake phenomena. By formalizing the general solution to the proposed equations with given boundary conditions, the research offers a comparative analysis of electric parameters across different radon concentrations and radii of [...]
The 1935 Guyana event and the 1908 Tunguska event
Published: 2026-01-03
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper is a continuation of a series of works, devoted to various aspects of the 1908 Tunguska event. In 1935 a remarkable event took place in Guyana (at that time British Guiana). A meteor was seen and a large area of devastated forest was discovered. The main source for information on this event was an article published in an astronomical magazine in 1939. The 1939-article provided [...]
Multi-frequency Teleseismic P-wave Back-projection of the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula Earthquake
Published: 2025-12-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences
A great megathrust earthquake with moment magnitude Mw 8.8 struck off the Kamchatka Peninsula on July 29, 2025, generating a Pacific-wide tsunami and rupturing a segment of the Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zone that has repeatedly hosted M9-class earthquakes. We apply multi-frequency teleseismic P-wave back-projection (BP) analysis using six frequency bands spanning 0.003–2.0 Hz to investigate the [...]
Large Earthquakes: a Way of Formation and Prediction
Published: 2025-12-26
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
It is believed that the accumulation of small fractures (small earthquakes) in the crust is one of many ways for the formation of large fractures (large earthquakes). In such cases, the temporal variations in the accumulation number of small earthquakes can be used to predict future seismic activity in the region. To do so, a structural system of the crust is constructed using the logarithmic [...]
Gutenberg-Richter-type earthquake size distributions: maximum likelihood estimation, unbiased estimation, and Bayesian forecasting
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Characterizing earthquake size distributions using the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law is ubiquitous in seismology. According to the GR law, earthquake magnitudes follow an exponential distribution, with a rate parameter commonly represented by the b-value. For many applications, including seismic hazard and risk assessment, estimating the b-value is therefore a common procedure. However, the [...]
Towards Entire Wavefield Inversion in Highly Scattering Volcanic Environments using Fourier Neural Operators
Published: 2025-12-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic imaging in volcanic environments is highly challenging due to significant scattering of seismic waves on multiple spatial scales. When these wavefields are recorded on the surface by seismic arrays, seismograms generally contain information-rich codas in addition to ballistic first arrivals. Later reflected and refracted arrivals are often completely masked by the scattered coda waves. [...]
Tandem: An Open-Source High-Performance Computing Volumetric Software to Model Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip Across Complex Fault Systems
Published: 2025-12-11
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Simulating sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on realistic fault systems provides a physical framework to understand the evolution of the seismic cycle, but remains computationally expensive. Volumetric approaches offer the physical flexibility to handle complex geometries and heterogeneous off-fault media but may incur prohibitively high computational costs when applied to the [...]
Multi-Planar Hierarchy in Pan-American Seismic Fractality: A Bayesian Resolution to the Projection Paradox
Published: 2025-12-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Earthquake catalogs worldwide exhibit an enduring paradox: seismicity appears confined to planar faults (correlation dimension D2≈ 2.0), yet operates within volumetric lithospheric deformation. We resolve this paradox through Bayesian fractal analysis of 50,010 earthquakes across seven Pan-American tectonic regimes (2010–2025), revealing that apparent planarity reflects instrumental projection [...]
The role of the Hikurangi subduction interface in enabling Kaikōura-like earthquakes: Insights from synthetic earthquake catalogues
Published: 2025-12-09
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
A well-known problem in seismic hazard is the short duration of the historical record relative to the time between large earthquakes. This short record means that not all possible earthquakes have been observed, and that the statistics of earthquake recurrence intervals and magnitudes are poorly constrained. These issues are particularly acute for earthquakes involving multiple faults, such as [...]
Subduction-driven mantle flow beneath and around the Philippine Sea Plate from seismic anisotropy
Published: 2025-12-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Shear-wave splitting illuminates mantle flow and subduction zone dynamics but is typically inferred near stations or earthquakes, limiting studies in sparsely instrumented regions away from earthquakes. Where stations or earthquakes are present, fast splitting directions are often parallel to the nearest trench, which has yet to be fully understood and reconciled with geodynamic flow predictions. [...]
Dynamics, interactions and delays of the 2019 Ridgecrest rupture sequence
Published: 2025-12-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The observational difficulties and the complexity of earthquake physics have rendered seismic hazard assessment largely empirical. Despite increasingly high-quality geodetic, seismic and field observations, data-driven earthquake imaging yields stark differences and physics-based models explaining all observed dynamic complexities are elusive. Here we present data-assimilated three-dimensional [...]
ShallowLandslider: a physics-based component for predicting regional distributions of coseismic landslides
Published: 2025-12-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology
Earthquakes can trigger thousands of shallow landslides across mountainous terrain, reshaping landscapes and posing severe hazards. Predicting their spatial distribution remains challenging because most existing models are empirical, event-specific, and lack physical interpretability. We introduce ShallowLandslider, a physics-based component within the open-source Landlab framework for regional [...]
Foreshock Behaviors and Mainshock Rupture Properties Associated with the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake Sequence
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The July 29 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake ruptured the plate interface off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula along the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Following the mainshock, tsunamis were recorded in multiple countries along the Pacific Ocean boundary and its islands, along with the eruption of several volcanoes in Kamchatka. The mainshock was preceded by a strong foreshock sequence [...]