Uncertainties in Projected Rainfall over Brazil: The Role of Climate Model, Bias Correction and Emission Scenario

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Authors

Carolina Natel de Moura , Jan Seibert, Miriam Rita Moro Mine

Abstract

The aim of this study is to answer four main questions: How well the Eta regional climate model simulates past precipitation over Brazil? What is the impact of bias correction on the reduction of model’s biases? What is the contribution of climate models, bias correction and emission scenarios to the total uncertainty of projected precipitation? And finally, what is the projected change in precipitation over Brazil?
New hydrological insights for the region
The performance of raw simulations of the Eta regional climate models vary spatially over Brazil, being the Amazon and North region the regions with the highest biases. However, while the model fails in accuracy, it represents well the annual cycle of the precipitation and the signal of the future changes is robust (that is, it agrees with the signal of the changes after the bias correction and the models agree with each other). The bias correction presented a great impact in
the bias reduction. Greater uncertainty levels are attributed to the bias correction followed by the climate models and interaction between climate model and bias correction. The emission scenario is the less contributor to the total uncertainty. Projected precipitation changes indicated a decrease in the daily precipitation and extreme precipitation in the Amazon and North Brazil and increase in the daily precipitation in Southern. The precipitation in winter is expected to increase. Under the IPCC scenario RCP 8.5, homogeneoulsly drier conditions are projected for the entire country.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/2p9wg

Subjects

Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

bias correction, climate models, emission scenarios, eta model, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, uncertainties

Dates

Published: 2020-09-01 09:01

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License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

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