Some new Models of Earth’s Temperature Anomaly across various Epochs Predicting Present Warming with Ice Age Validity Testing and a Data set Bias examination.

Chris Barnes

The need for methods to assess earth’s temperature anomaly are briefly discussed together with shortcomings of existing climate models. The geomagnetic or Pole shift method of climate sensitivity is briefly reviewed. The hypothesis that the previous two warm periods shared a common driver is tested and proven. Granger causality tests have been made and indicate that Pole Shift is the driver of temperature but is intercorrelated with CO2 with a subsequent delay on emission of CO2 from the oceans. A series of twelve single linear regression analyses is first performed starting with three individual possible drivers of the present warming period (PWP) said period being divided up into pre and post 1979 and said drivers being namely, Pole shift latitude (PS), CO2 and Albedo. Earth’s temperature/time record since the last Ice Age or at least the last 14,000 years or so is also fitted by means of a simple polynomial equation, the number of parameters increase in post-industrial times. Earth temperature anomaly from typical Ice Age to Present Day and including Maunder Minimum (LIA) is shown to be fitted by a self-limiting rational equation. Once optimum CO2 has been established it is concluded there are faster acting sinks and mechanisms disclosed which increase in sequestration ability to hold effect, if not value. Reasons for GISTEMP v4 data bias are discussed and validated. Traditional Greenhouse Warming with a maximum effect in the Upper Troposphere is not supported. Apparent ‘runaway’ warming is a product of Pole Shift induced albedo shift not C02. Earth’s temperature stabilizes at an optimum CO2 level around 290-311 ppmv by means of processes which obey a Rational Function of the general form Y = a+bx/1+ cx+dx^2. Addition of further CO2 then appears only to make minimal overall difference to the extension of this function and adds on only about 150 mK at CO2 concentrations of even up to 3200 ppmv. The notion of PS as dominant driver together with adaptive and strengthening CO2 biotic sinks is supported.