Strategic crop relocation could substantially mitigate nuclear winter yield losses

Simon Blouin, Morgan Rivers, Michael Hinge , Mariana Antonietta, Ines Jimenez, Florian Ulrich Jehn, David Denkenberger

Nuclear war could inject millions of tonnes of soot into the stratosphere, cooling the Earth and devastating crop yields. We assess crop relocation—switching which crops are grown where—as an adaptation strategy. Using the Mink crop model, we simulate six major crops under three nuclear winter scenarios (16, 47, and 150 Tg of soot). Without adaptation, global caloric production falls 23%, 53%, and 85% respectively during the worst year of each scenario. We find that mild cooling scenarios favor expanding high-calorie warm-season crops like rice and maize, while severe scenarios require extensive conversion to cold-tolerant crops like rapeseed. In the extreme 150 Tg scenario, crop relocation could double food production compared to current planting patterns. While insufficient to prevent widespread famine in severe scenarios, crop relocation has the potential to save billions of lives.