Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services: A Multi-Module InVEST-LCM Analysis

Fahad Hasan , Yashar Makhtoumi, Gang Chen

Land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics influence ecological processes and the provision of essential ecosystem services (ESs). So, understanding how LULC changes influence ESs is critical for sustainable land management and conservation planning, especially in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Despite studies examining individual ecosystem services, there remains a notable research gap in comprehensive, spatially explicit analyses integrating multiple ESs across historical and projected timelines. This study addresses this gap by assessing the impacts of historical and projected LULC changes on multiple ESs in the Hillsborough River Watershed in Florida, USA, from 2000 through projected scenarios to 2050. Using a combination of remote sensing data, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) within TerrSet software, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, we quantified and projected changes in six ESs: annual water yields, flood mitigation, carbon storage, nutrient retention, sediment export, and recreational visitation. Additionally, ecosystem service values (ESVs) were economically assessed using inflation-adjusted global valuation coefficients. Results revealed that from 2000 to 2023, urban land expanded by over 30%, primarily replacing croplands, wetlands, and forests. This urbanization reduced carbon storage by 11.8% and runoff retention by 4.6%, while sediment export increased by 9.4%. The total ESV declined by approximately $450 million, highlighting substantial ecological and economic losses. Projected scenarios indicated continued urban growth by 2050, with urban areas potentially occupying nearly half of the watershed. This expansion would further reduce carbon storage by an additional 11.1%, runoff retention by 2.9%, and sediment export 10.9%. Consequently, cumulative ESV losses are projected to surpass $1 billion by 2050. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrating ecosystem-based conservation strategies into urban policy frameworks. By adopting proactive measures that prioritize high-value natural areas and promote ecological restoration, stakeholders can better balance urban growth with environmental sustainability ensuring long-term resilience for both natural and human communities.