SWOT Satellite Altimetry Observations and Source Model for the Tsunami from the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake

Angel Ruiz-Angulo, Diego Melgar , Charly de Marez, Deniau Aurélien, Francesco Nencioli, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir

On 29 July 2025 a Mw 8.8 earthquake struck off Kamchatka, Russia generating a Pacific-wide tsunami and marking the largest earthquake since the launch of the SWOT satellite in 2022. We analyze tsunami observations from SWOT together with three nearby DART buoys to resolve the source of the event. SWOT provided the first high-resolution spaceborne track of a great subduction-zone tsunami, capturing waveforms that reveal complex propagation, dispersion, and scattering. Inversion of DART time series using Gaussian unit sources shows that the rupture extended ~400 km along strike, with peak uplift of ~4 m, significantly different from published finite-fault model. A blended source that combines the DART-inverted uplift with subsidence from the seismic–geodetic model best matches both datasets and reproduces the SWOT observations. Comparison with reconstructions of the 1952 Mw 9.0 Kamchatka earthquake indicates that the 2025 rupture likely re-activated significant portions of the megathrust that broke in 1952 but occurred farther downdip and with little to no near-trench slip, consistent with its smaller tsunami impact. These findings highlight the hazard implications of short recurrence intervals of great earthquakes and show how rupture style governs tsunami severity. They also demonstrate the value of satellite altimetry for improving tsunami source characterization, post-event forecasting, and understanding of hydrodynamic processes.