Climate Change Projections for the Central Peruvian Coast (2006–2100) Using CMIP5 Models: Agricultural Impacts and Implications for the Growth of Chenopodium quinoa Willd in Arid Zones

Yvan Garcia-Lopez, Lia Ramos-Fernandez, Luz Gomez-Pando 

We evaluated climatic data for the central coastal region of Peru (Lima) as simulated by the climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The models were: MIROC-ESM, CSIRO Mk 3.6, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and MPI-ESM-LR, with respective spatial resolutions of 2.81° × 1.77°, 1.875° × 1.86°, 1.4° × 1.40°, 2.5° × 2.0°, 2.5° × 1.27°, and 1.875° × 1.875°. The models were built using observed meteorological data from this region for the 1975–2005 period and were employed under the IPCC's RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.
The RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios were selected because they represent low and severe CO₂ concentration pathways, respectively. This approach allows for an assessment of the full range of potential climate impacts, from a future with ambitious mitigation (RCP2.6) to one with no mitigation intervention (RCP8.5). Thus, it provides a solid foundation for adaptation and mitigation decision-making, highlighting the urgency of climate action in the face of projected risks.
Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, this study assesses their ability to predict mild and extreme climate events, as well as the critical implications for the agricultural sector. The analysis is particularly relevant for key crops in the area, such as asparagus (Asparagus officinalis), avocado (Persea americana), citrus fruits, grapevine (Vitis vinifera), maize (Zea mays), and the emerging and vulnerable quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.). Quinoa was specifically planted in an agricultural plot in La Molina, on the central coast of Lima, Peru, to evaluate its phenology, which could be affected by severe climate patterns until the end of the 21st century.
The results of this study reveal high variability among the models in the climate projections for the central region of Lima, with notable discrepancies in temperature and precipitation trends. The projections indicate significant warming, ranging from +1.2°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to +4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario, expected in the evaluated arid zone by the end of the century.
KEYWORDS: Climate models, CMIP5, RCP scenarios, climate projection, agricultural climatology, quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.), Peru.