Tides of change: an exploratory qualitative study on the health risks of an AMOC collapse in Europe, with a focus on Germany

Juliane Mirow 

This qualitative study examines the potential health and societal impacts of an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse on European populations, with a particular focus on Germany. Through semi-structured interviews with 17 transdisciplinary experts, the research investigates how a weakening AMOC could amplify existing health risks, create new challenges and strain healthcare systems. Findings suggest that a significant slowdown of the AMOC would potentially intensify climate-related health effects, increasing pressures on emergency medicine and crisis response. Food security could also be threatened due to disruptions in agriculture and global supply chains. Beyond physical health risks, psychosocial impacts, such as trauma, stress and uncertainty, are likely to rise. The study highlights how overlapping crises could undermine social cohesion, disproportionately affect young people and foster fear-driven, anti-democratic movements, ultimately weakening collective climate action. An AMOC collapse may further challenge infrastructure resilience, including energy grids and transportation networks, as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe. The research evaluates vulnerabilities within Germany’s healthcare system and its readiness to respond to these emerging risks, focusing on healthcare system resilience, infrastructure adaptation and safeguarding democratic institutions amid growing polycrises. Based on expert insights, the study proposes 15 recommendations spanning healthcare, psychosocial wellbeing, crisis prevention and climate action. Overall, the findings provide guidance for mitigating health risks and protecting affected populations while emphasising the urgent need for further research on the likelihood, timing and global consequences of an AMOC collapse, including health risks, as well as urgent climate action to safeguard the health and wellbeing of current and future generations.