Developing a prototype decision support framework to assess forest management scenarios as a nature-based decarbonization solution for the mining sector: A case study in British Columbia, Canada

Elaheh Ghasemi, Kathleen Coupland, Salar Ghotb, Gregory Paradis 

This study, realized in partnership with a leading global gold producer, explores how forest management nature-based solutions (NbS) can be integrated into decarbonization strategies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. NbS, including carbon sequestration in forests, are expected to play an important role in meeting decarbonization commitments in the mining sector. Our primary contribution is a prototype open-source decision support system (DSS) framework for modeling forest management scenarios using publicly available data and reproducible workflows. We demonstrate the framework on three distinct mining sites in British Columbia (BC), Canada, using geospatial data, forest inventory, and landscape-level models.

The prototype compares a business-as-usual scenario with alternative harvesting scenarios to examine objectives such as maximizing harvest volume, minimizing harvested area, maximizing ecosystem carbon stocks, and minimizing net emissions. Key performance indicators (KPIs) are tracked to evaluate environmental, economic, and social aspects. The case study serves to illustrate that both the method and code implementation adapt readily to sites with different forest dynamics. While the current notebook-based interface is limited in usability, it supports a fully open, transparent, and reproducible analysis pipeline. We argue that further development of this approach is warranted to improve usability while retaining transparency and auditability.

The study does not prescribe specific harvesting strategies; rather, the findings illustrate how forest management objectives influence outcomes across KPIs. Scenarios prioritizing higher harvest volumes yield greater economic and social benefits but often coincide with trade-offs in environmental indicators. Conversely, restricting harvesting can improve environmental indicators. While not production-ready, the prototype demonstrates promising attributes for nature-based decarbonization analyses and suggests a direction for further development and evaluation.