Unlocking Gigatonne-scale Carbon Dioxide Removal with strategic tipping point frameworks

Matthew Oliver Clarkson, Mariane Chiapini, Marcella Daubermann, Veronica Furey, Suzi Huff Theodoro, Injy Johnstone, Junyao Kang, David Manning, Igor Nogueira, Eduardda Pivatto, Noah J. Planavsky , Bruno Ramos, Mayra Maniero Rodrigues, Leticia Schwerz, Philipp Swoboda, Jeandro Vitorio, Christina Larkin

Achieving global climate mitigation requires a rapid acceleration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) to gigatonne (Gt) scales by 2040. Linear growth in climate solutions is insufficient to reach these targets, but system-change practices and leveraging interventions that trigger self-reinforcing feedbacks ("tipping points"), offer a solution. Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW) in Brazil is uniquely positioned to utilize this approach. ERW accelerates natural rock weathering to remove atmospheric CO2 by spreading rock powders in agricultural settings. Simultaneously, the rock powders have the potential to restore degraded soils, increase nutrient use efficiency and reduce the reliance on synthetic fertilizers. ERW can remove CO2, reduce emissions and positively impact communities and ecosystems. In Brazil, these targets align, creating conditions for system change. This study explores the enabling conditions and interventions that place Brazil at the forefront of uniting the emerging ERW industry with sustainable agrogeological transformation. These conditions include pioneering research, an established community movement and representation body, and a ‘first-of-its-kind’ national legal framework for feedstock production. The paper highlights the importance of regional development hubs and feedstock valorization to drive the diffusion of innovation, enabling multiple positive feedback mechanisms to accelerate the system toward a sustainable agronomic transition with Gt-scale CDR potential.