Climate factors related to the dengue incidence in Costa Rica and future projections under scenario SSP5-8.5.

Hugo G Hidalgo, Eric J Alfaro, Fabio Sanchez, Adriana Troyo, Tito Maldonado, Zaray Miranda-Chacón, Eric Morales-Mora, Monserrat Solano-Gamboa, Marco Acosta-Quesada

This article has three objectives: 1) modeling the climate-dengue relationship at the smallest administrative division (districts) using high-resolution data; 2) use of an objective algorithm for the selection of predictors that results in parsimonious models, cross-validated to prevent overfitting; and 3) using estimates from CMIP6 climate models to provide mid-century (2035-2065) potential dengue incidence projections under a pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5) with seasonal windows actionable by region in Costa Rica to guide preparedness decisions. Results show that temperature and precipitation data are significantly related to dengue incidence. Projections of dengue cases for mid-century show increments of up to 42 more cases in some districts compared to the historical scenario. It should be remembered that ultimately dengue variations and change are related to climatic and non-climatic factors and the results presented here represent a future potential increase of the dissemination of the disease, based on the projected climate change of the most pessimistic scenario.