Past, Present and Future of the Indus Water Treaty: Implications for Transboundary Water Governance Challenges and Modernization Prospects

Tejal S Shirsat, Lara B. Fowler, Christopher A Scott

The Indus Water Treaty has been applauded as a successful water sharing agreement to allocate the water of Indus River system between India and Pakistan. Yet a set of diplomatic, water resources, and climatic challenges have culminated into the current state of suspension and raise questions over the future of the transboundary water governance. This paper presents a critical spatio-temporal analysis of its past, present and future and addresses the prospects for modernization. We analyze the background of the treaty, current challenges it faces, and the outlook for modernization of provisions for the long-term sustenance of the treaty. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of water availability in the basin, climate change impacts, and natural hazards, increasing population and related economic pressures set in the context of hydro-political tensions have culminated into water stress in the tributary rivers, especially in Chenab, Ravi and Jhelum. Initial disputes over infrastructure development have proliferated with climate change extremes and rising hydro-political tensions with increasing turbulency in the basin. Although the treaty has been used as a tool to respond to existing tensions, its water-sharing provisions have not been the casus belli for conflict between the two neighbors. In order to maintain any cooperation in this rapidly changing transboundary basin, especially at a crucial point of suspension, the treaty must be modernized with emphasis on a joint commission process and increasing attention to surface and groundwater quantity and quality, disaster prediction, environmental protection, and above all, identifying and strengthening co-benefits with shared projects to provide future decades of resilience.