Two-thirds of new fossil fuel infrastructure targets critical ecosystems, elevating health risks for millions

Ginni Braich, Katie Fankhauser, Laura Castrejon Violante, Naia Ormaza Zulueta, Stella Cooper, Candy Ofime, Isaiah Lyons-Galante, Varnitha Kurli, Zia Mehrabi

While the fossil fuel industry’s role in driving climate change is well established, the elevated risks to fenceline communities and critical ecosystems remain underexplored at a global scale, limited to a handful of prior coarse assessments. Here we map over 18,000 operating fossil fuel facilities across 170 countries, and assess their placement in surrounding populations and ecosystems, relative to empirical data on known elevated risk zones. We find that∼32% of facilities are located within critical ecosystems, including areas important to nature’s contributions to people, key biodiversity areas, and critical irrecoverable carbon reserves, and that almost 463 million people, including over 120 million children, live within 1 km of these sites, placing them at heightened risk of health impacts. Looking forward, we assess 3,500 planned facilities and find that∼69% are slated for, or are already under construction in, critical ecosystems, disproportionately in Asia’s biodiversity hotspots, and where an additional 106 million people in then-to-be fenceline communities will live. Together, these findings build on earlier studies and establish higher spatial resolution global estimates of communities and ecosystems at elevated risk from fossil fuel infrastructure. They underscore the urgent need for stronger environmental and health impact assessments, community-engaged health monitoring, and accountability frameworks to prevent further entrenchment of unfolding climate, ecological, and environmental justice crises on the frontlines of the fossil fuel industry globally.