Coastal Wetland Restoration and Greenhouse Gas Pathways: A Global Meta-Analysis

Benjamin Misteli, Daniel Morant, Antonio Camacho, Maria Adamo, Giancarlo Bachi, Nina Bègue, Martynas Bučas, Miguel Cabrera-Brufau, Rafael Carballeira, Lamara Cavalcante, Constantin Cazacu, João Pedro Coelho, Charlotte Doebke, Valentin Dinu, Anis Guelmami, Relu Giuca, Marija Kataržytė, Ana I. Lillebø, Ana Isabel Marin, Carmela Marangi, Camille Minaudo, Jorge Juan Montes-Pérez, Biel Obrador, Bruna R.F. Oliveira, Jolita Petkuvienė, Antonio Picazo, Marinka E.B. van Puijenbroek, Michael Ronse, Carlos Rochera, Antonio Sánchez, Chiara Santinelli, Ana Sousa, Daniel von Schiller, Katrin Attermeyer, Claudia Tropea, Diana Vaičiūtė

Coastal wetland restoration is widely promoted as a tool for climate change mitigation, but its effect on the carbon cycle is not well constrained. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of peer-reviewed field studies that directly contrasted restored with altered sites, covering carbon stocks and greenhouse gas fluxes across mangroves, saltmarshes, seagrass meadows, brackish systems, and coastal freshwater wetlands. Literature searches yielded 66 studies and 257 pairwise restored versus altered site comparisons. Multilevel random-effects models with nested study effects showed significant increases after restoration in soil carbon, aboveground biomass, and belowground biomass. Mean greenhouse gas flux changes after restoration were non-significant for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O. Meta-regressions detected no significant differences among wetland types, though this result is constrained by unbalanced evidence across systems and studied parameters. The available data are geographically biased toward tropical and subtropical Asia, with minimal coverage in Africa and limited data from temperate and cold coastal regions. Among the covered variables dissolved organic carbon is critically underrepresented, constraining whole-system impact estimates. Overall, the data examined in this study show that restoration consistently rebuilds biomass and soil carbon without a detectable systematic “cost” from methane or nitrous oxide, indicating positive outcomes for greenhouse gas fluxes. To translate these findings into policy-ready estimates, monitoring of greenhouse gases and dissolved organic carbon should be expanded, altered versus restored designs should be prioritized, and underrepresented regions and wetland types should be targeted.