Buoyancy driven distributed chaos and ensemble weather forecasting

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Authors

Alexander Bershadskii

Abstract

It is shown, using results of direct numerical simulations, that strong thermal convection in horizontal layer and on a hemisphere can be well described by the distributed chaos approach with the stretched exponential kinetic energy spectrum. Two relevant cases: the vorticity and helicity dominated distributed chaos, have been considered. The results obtained with the Weather Research and Forecast Model (moist convection with and without Coriolis effect), with NCEP/Stage IV precipitation products, with the Deterministic Weather Forecasting Systems based on ensemble-variational data assimilation, and with the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) were also used in order to demonstrate applicability of the distributed chaos approach. In the later case the ensemble forecasting of the real snowstorms was considered for this purpose.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/hej3w

Subjects

Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

chaos, ensemble weather forecasting, thermal convection

Dates

Published: 2019-01-04 17:29

Last Updated: 2019-02-18 09:40

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License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

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