Comparing the Euro 2k reconstruction to a regional climate model simulation

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 2 of this Preprint.


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Oliver Bothe 


We do not expect simulations and reconstructions of past climate change to agree on the exact evolution of past climate variations. Simulations with sophisticated climate models present spatially discrete but complete estimates, which are consistent relative to the implemented physics and their uncertain forcing data. Reconstruction methods statistically infer past changes from natural archives who reacted to and recorded more than one external influence and, thus, carry an uncertainty by construction. However, comparison of both data sources is relevant not least as it addresses the disagreements between the data. This manuscript describes the disagreement of a regional simulation with an ensemble of regional reconstructions but also highlights some agreement. The results emphasize the congruence in modelling and reconstructing past changes. Besides the expected disagreement both sources of information about past climate changes show some potential agreement in low frequency variability, time-series properties, and spatial covariability. While we cannot aim for perfect matches we can consider simulations and reconstructions as estimates of probabilities of past changes if their general properties agree.



Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics


paleoclimatology, paleoclimate, CCLM, data-simulation comparison, Euro2k, model-data comparison, Pages 2k Network, Paleolink


Published: 2018-12-21 08:47

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CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

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