Adapting Caspian Sea ports to climate-induced water level declines: The case of Aktau

Darren Lumbroso , Gina Tsarouchi , Andrew Campbell, Mark Davison, Andre Merrien, Victor Aragones, Peter Kristensen, Irina Li, Giulia Sforzi, Dan Barber, Matthew Wood, Zoran Cao, Jeremy Spearman

The Caspian Sea is the world's largest inland body of water. It is critical for regional trade through the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which links South-East Asia and China to Europe. Aktau Port in Kazakhstan is strategically important, located on key international transport routes like the TITR. Over the past 30 years, the Caspian Sea’s water levels have dropped from -26.6 m Baltic Datum (BD) in 1995 to  29.66 m BD in October 2024. This decline has damaged about 70% of Aktau Port’s fenders, which have been replaced with temporary ones and ships can only be loaded to 80% of their capacity to avoid grounding in shallow berths. Climate projections indicate a further 7 m potential decline by 2100 owing to reduced inflows and increased evaporation. This research provides the first integrated assessment of climate-driven water level decline and port adaptation in the Caspian region, combining hydrological modelling with engineering adaptation pathways to inform climate-resilient infrastructure planning. This paper outlines the adaptation options for Aktau Port for the following times scales: immediate; medium-term; and long-term. Immediate measures include dredging, coupled with new fendering systems, for the port to operate at its full capacity. Medium-term options involve quay wall modifications and introducing shallow-draft vessels. Long-term strategies require a critical decision between major infrastructure upgrades or relocating operations offshore or to a new port.