Specifying wind gusts based on wind speed increments and forecasting gustiness

So-Kumneth Sim, Philipp Maass

Wind gust forecasting is crucial for mitigating damage to people and property. We define gusts as rapid wind speed changes exceeding application-specific thresholds, and propose forecasting gustiness, that is the number of gusts per time unit. For the forecasting, we employ a correlation between gustiness and variance of wind speed increments, quantified in an analysis of measured offshore data. By modeling speed increment variance with an autoregressive process, we construct a predictor for gustiness to surpass a threshold. The method is exemplified for rapid changes of wind-induced drag forces. After optimising the forecasting procedure, we observe specificity comparable to a baseline persistence model, with significantly improved sensitivity. Our methodology of defining gusts and forecasting gustiness offers lots of room for improvements. Further developments may lead to high-quality forecasting in real-world applications.