Study on Land-use Change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions

Liaofu Luo, Jun Lv

Land-use change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions (ELUC, defined as net carbon emissions and removals) have accounted for approximately one-third of global anthropogenic carbon emissions since industrialization. While its contribution has declined in recent decades, ELUC still represents a significant component of the global carbon budget, comprising 11% of anthropogenic emissions during 2012–2022. Land-based climate mitigation is essential for meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate targets and has attracted growing scientific and political attention in recent years. The complex temporal evolution of ELUC observed both globally and in China highlights land-use change as a key lever for climate mitigation. Investigating ELUC allows for a deeper understanding of climate change dynamics. In this study, we examine a classification framework for complex systems, distinguishing those that are attributable with a dominant driving factor (attributable complex systems with main cause, ACSMC) from those without. The essential dynamics of an ACSMC can be captured via its low-dimensional representations—each time series variable within such a dynamical system can reconstruct these representations. LUC, encompassing deforestation, urbanization, and agriculture across varied regions and territories, collectively forms the optimal fingerprint for the system. Demonstrating the existence of such an optimal fingerprint through simulations of ELUC over time confirms that LUC behaves as an ACSMC. Additionally, we identify three distinct phases in the temporal evolution of ELUC: an increasing phase prior to 1913, a transitional phase from 1913 to 1992, and a declining phase after 1992. Currently in the third phase, we explore the relationships between ELUC and temperature, conduct a detailed statistical analysis, and investigate how land-use change may adapt to future warming.