Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. The published version of this Preprint is available: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba97d.

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Authors

David Helman , Ben Zaitchik, Chris Funk

Abstract

There is an active debate regarding the influence that climate has on the risk of armed conflict, which stems from challenges in assembling unbiased datasets, competing hypotheses on the mechanisms of climate influence, and the difficulty of disentangling direct and indirect climate effects. We use gridded historical non-state conflict records, satellite data, and land surface models in a structural equation modeling approach to uncover the direct and indirect effects of climate on violent conflicts in Africa and the Middle East (ME). We show that climate–conflict linkages in these regions are more complex than previously suggested, with multiple mechanisms at work. Warm temperatures and low rainfall direct effects on conflict risk were stronger than indirect effects through food and water supplies. Warming increases the risk of violence in Africa but unexpectedly decreases this risk in the ME. Furthermore, at the country level, warming decreases the risk of violence in most West African countries. Overall, we find a non-linear response of conflict to warming across countries that depends on the local temperature conditions. We further show that magnitude and sign of the effects largely depend on the scale of analysis and geographical context. These results imply that extreme caution should be exerted when attempting to explain or project local climate-conflict relationships based on a single, generalized theory.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/9en6q

Subjects

Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Human Geography, International and Area Studies, Library and Information Science, Life Sciences, Nature and Society Relations, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability

Keywords

climate, Africa, Climate-conflict, Conflict, Middle East, SEM, Structural Equation Model, Violence, Warming, Water

Dates

Published: 2020-07-08 10:40

Last Updated: 2020-07-28 11:07

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License

Academic Free License (AFL) 3.0

Additional Metadata

Data Availability (Reason not available):
Data will be available upon request from the authors.

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