Multi-level geothermal analysis of urban heat-in-place: a Leeds case study

Mohamed Gouiza , David G. Barns, Emma K Bramham, Fleur A. Loveridge, Nick D. Shaw

As cities across the UK seek to decarbonise heat and achieve net-zero targets, shallow geothermal energy presents an underutilised yet promising resource. In this study, we evaluate the geothermal potential of the upper 1,000 m of the subsurface beneath Leeds, a major urban centre underlain by Carboniferous sandstone aquifers and abandoned coal mine workings. Using geological maps and legacy borehole data, we construct a 3D subsurface model to carry out a stochastic calculation of the volumetric Heat-in-Place (HIP). Four geothermal targets were assessed: the Elland Flags, Upper and Lower Millstone Grit formations, and flooded mine workings. Our results reveal a substantial median geothermal resource exceeding 1,833,333 GWh of thermal energy, with a total recoverable heat output of over 700 MW (>500,000 home equivalent). The Lower Millstone Grit was identified as the most significant reservoir due to its depth and elevated temperatures, while the shallower Elland Flags and mine water systems offer localised low-temperature potential suitable for near-surface heating schemes. Spatial mapping of HIP indicates favourable alignment between zones of high energy potential and areas of heat demand, supporting the integration of geothermal resources into future heat networks. Our work also highlights key geoscientific and regulatory barriers to deployment and outlines the data needed to reduce uncertainty and enable investment. Overall, this work demonstrates the strategic role of urban geothermal energy in supporting Leeds’ transition to a low-carbon heat system and offers a transferable methodology for application in other cities in the UK and beyond.