This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 1 of this Preprint.
Ocean climate variability and travel surveillance data inform understanding of global dengue dynamics
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Authors
Stella Dafka 
,
Kristina M. Angelo,
Rhett J. Stoney,
Kevin O’Laughlin,
Alexandre Duvignaud,
Michael Libman ,
Davidson H. Hamer ,
Joacim Rocklöv,
Ralph Huits
Abstract
Oceanic-atmospheric interactions significantly influence regional rainfall and vector-borne disease dynamics. Travel-related dengue cases serve as effective sentinels for dengue transmission, yet the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on their occurrence remains under explored. Here we analyzed 2000–2019 GeoSentinel traveler dengue data alongside ERA5 SST and precipitation anomalies to assess correlations across global ocean basins. We identified that dominant SST variability modes in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans are remotely associated with dengue incidence in regions exhibiting strong seasonal precipitation patterns. These SST-driven rainfall variations likely modulate vector ecology and dengue transmission. Incorporating SST and precipitation anomalies into dengue forecasting models could enhance outbreak prediction and public health preparedness, providing a valuable adjunct to existing tools.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31223/X52X8C
Subjects
Public Health
Keywords
ocean climate variability, sea surface temperature anomalies, Precipitation, GeoSentinel travel Surveillance Network, dengue, vector-borne diseases, climate-health interactions, early-warning systems
Dates
Published: 2026-01-28 21:48
Last Updated: 2026-01-28 21:48
License
CC BY Attribution 4.0 International
Additional Metadata
Data Availability (Reason not available):
The dengue case data supporting the results of this study are available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission from the GeoSentinel Surveillance Network. The climate data analyzed in this study are available in the Copernicus Climate Data Store repository at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/.
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