A Novel Climatic Threat Framework Linking Biodiversity’s Vulnerability to Administrative Responsibility

Agustin Guerrero Camacho, Leonardo Vignoli, Jose Guerrero-Casado, Juan de la Cruz-Merino, Alejandro Camacho, Francesco Cerini

Biodiversity is cornered by human habitat alteration and eroded by climate change. Protecting it urgently requires efficient allocation of conservation resources to protect vulnerable species and ecosystems. However, conservation decisions are often hindered by fragmented governance and a disconnection between policymakers, funders, managers and scientists. To address this, we propose the Climatic Threat and Responsibility approach to help allocating responsibilities and guide the use of adaptation funds. We rely on three key concepts: (1) Climatic Threat, defined as environmental conditions exceeding a species’ realized historical niche; (2) Climatic Vulnerability, which encompasses species’ sensitivity, exposure, adaptability, and resilience; and (3) Administrative Climatic Responsibility, linking governance entities to conservation obligations based on the current and projected climate threats for species. Our framework ranks geographical locations more in need of climatic actions and administrative entities responsible for doing them based on: the amount of conservation value under climatic threat, the urgency to act, and the certainty of climatic threat. Based on these notions, we present an R-based algorithm that maps species-specific exposure to climatic threats and, accordingly, ranks sites’ climatic threat toward its inhabiting species. Besides, it summarizes these threats across geopolitical regions to compare administrations’ climatic responsibility to preserve biodiversity. This system leverages species’ realized climatic niches and multiple climatic scenarios (2020–2040). Finally, we propose a trait-based ranking system to classify climatic vulnerability for local populations and guide adaptation actions. This framework is intended to complement traditional climatic vulnerability assessments by flagging sites and populations for which such assessments should be prioritized. By uniting conservation practitioners, policymakers, and scientists, this framework aims to streamline adaptation funding and policies in a rapidly changing climate.