Structural Transformation, Energy Intensity, and GHG Emissions in East Africa: Implications for Green Development

Akeem Oladele Ademati , J Bonabana-Wabbi, Asha Nalunga

This paper dissected the intricate drivers of per-capita greenhouse gas emissions across East

Africa, with a laser focus on the dynamics of sectoral shifts in synergy with the shockwaves of

energy consumption for a time period of 1993 to 2022. The study engaged a balanced panel

of five East African countries which are Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda. The

balanced panel was designed by combining EDGAR’s IPCC published greenhouse gases data

with salient macro-economic variables and indicators harvested from World Bank’s WDI data.

The research revealed how fixed and random effect models coherently synergize with common

correlated effects (CCE) estimators and cross-sectional augmented ARDL (CS-ARDL) to

x-ray the intricate nexus of cross-sectoral feedbacks while informing of the short-run and

long-run impacts.

The outcome of this research clearly revealed that per-capita GDP is the primary driver

of emissions in the region, with elasticities of 0.7–0.8. Furthermore, it was revealed that

per-capita energy usage has a strongly positive effect (elasticity ≈ 0.42). In the same vein,

trade openness mitigates the intensity of emissions when heterogeneity is controlled for.

Moreover, sectoral composition and urbanization indirectly matter by producing effects on

growth and energy demand.

The research conducted cross-sectional dependence tests which affirmed strong regional

spillovers, thereby emphasizing the need for the East African block to adopt sustainable

energy and climate strategies.

The findings of this research safely concluded that without major investments in renewable

energy, energy efficiency, and climate-friendly industrial transition, the East African region

is bound to be entrapped into an emissions-intensive growth path. Meanwhile, the early

adoption of climate-friendly technologies and regional sustainability efforts offers viable prospects to decouple growth from emissions at an earlier stage of development with hope

for a resounding success that is uncommon.

 
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