Inequality’s contribution to global catastrophic risk

Florian Ulrich Jehn, Daniel Hoyer

Inequality is rising and so is global catastrophic risk. These two problems are not independent from each other. Inequality has historically been a major driver of social instability, and is increasing the risk of global catastrophes today. We demonstrate this by drawing on the rich literature around societal collapse and global catastrophe from both past and modern societies, highlighting the corrosive effect that material and structural disparities have on social functions which can further carry over into multinational crises. The negative effects of inequality happen by destroying trust and information sharing in societies, which makes collective action much harder. This holds both true for current disasters where democracies, especially the ones with low inequality, face much lower death tolls, but also for global catastrophic risk, where democracies seem to be the form of government which invests the most resources and foresight into prevention of such risk. This means inequality is a risk factor for global catastrophes, both directly by making coordination more difficult in every form of society, but also by disrupting democracies and so limiting the ability to mitigate impacts. This means wealth redistribution is not only just, but also necessary to avoid the worst catastrophes.