Post-Processing a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model with an LSTM

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 3 of this Preprint.

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Authors

Grey Stephen Nearing, Alden Keefe Sampson, Frederik Kratzert, Jonathan Frame 

Abstract

Machine learning is becoming an increasingly important part of streamflow forecasting, but as these models to date lack a physical basis, there is a potential that they may produce values that are not realistic. We tested a simple post-processing strategy that uses the outputs from a calibrated conceptual model (the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model with Snow-17; SAC-SMA) as inputs into a a Long Short Term Memory Network (LSTM). Overall, the SAC-SMA model was improved substantially, while post-processing offered only minor improvements relative to the standalone LSTM. SAC-SMA performance was improved in catchments with more snow. The standalone LSTM was improved in terms of long-term bias, which is likely because the LSTM is not constrained by conservation principles.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/53te4

Subjects

Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

Dates

Published: 2020-07-10 03:13

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License

GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 2.1

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