No place to hide? Regional resilience and vulnerability to global catastrophic risk

Florian Ulrich Jehn, Maximilian Rössler, Luke Kemp, Mike Cassidy, Zachary Kallenborn, Juan Bartolomé García Martínez, Lara Mani, Matt Boyd

What places on Earth are most resilient to global catastrophic risk (GCR)? We provide the first systematic study of what locations are more resilient to a range of catastrophic threats. We reviewed the literature on resilience factors against the impacts of nuclear war, near-Earth objects, large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, large-scale cyberattacks, high altitude electromagnetic pulse, geomagnetic storms and pandemics. The review reveals that there is no place on Earth which is resilient against all kinds of global catastrophic risk. Australia and New Zealand show broad-based resilience across the widest range of GCR scenarios, but even for these resilient countries, continued international cooperation and trade are essential. Across the different risks, common resilience factors that show up most are geographic isolation (e.g., islands or nations able to enforce tight border controls), self-sufficiency (especially in food production), high governance quality (for instance, more democratic and lower inequality) and decentralization to mitigate single point catastrophic failures (e.g., impacting trade, energy systems, or food supply). Many of these factors stand in tension with each other and trade-offs are required to balance between different GCR scenarios and between a higher resilience against the immediate impacts or against the longer-term consequences. The literature suggests that increased GCR resilience requires more investment in preparation (e.g., food and energy security), planning (e.g., national risk assessments and emergency plans robust to global catastrophes), and international agreements that facilitate cooperation on preparation and GCR response. Combining all of these together into a general all-hazards approach will help ensure that no matter what hazard strikes, resilience exists at every scale.