Nanyan Deng, Patricio Grassini, Haishun Yang, Jianliang Huang, Kenneth Cassman, Shaobing Peng

China produces 28% of global rice supply and is currently self-sufficient despite a massive rural to urban demographic transition that drives intense competition for land and water resources. At issue is whether to remain self-sufficient, which depends on the potential to raise yields on existing rice land. Here we report the first high-resolution spatial analysis of rice production potential in China and evaluate scenarios to 2030. We find that China is likely to remain self-sufficient in rice assuming current yield and consumption trajectories and no reduction in production area. Focusing research and development on rice systems and regions with the largest potential to close yield gaps, as identified in this study, provides greatest opportunity to remain self-sufficient, even with reduced rice area.