To be or not to be: Prospects for rice self-sufficiency in China

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 2 of this Preprint.

Downloads

Download Preprint

Supplementary Files
Authors

Nanyan Deng, Patricio Grassini, Haishun Yang, Jianliang Huang, Kenneth Cassman, Shaobing Peng

Abstract

China produces 28% of global rice supply and is currently self-sufficient despite a massive rural to urban demographic transition that drives intense competition for land and water resources. At issue is whether to remain self-sufficient, which depends on the potential to raise yields on existing rice land. Here we report the first high-resolution spatial analysis of rice production potential in China and evaluate scenarios to 2030. We find that China is likely to remain self-sufficient in rice assuming current yield and consumption trajectories and no reduction in production area. Focusing research and development on rice systems and regions with the largest potential to close yield gaps, as identified in this study, provides greatest opportunity to remain self-sufficient, even with reduced rice area.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/vz26e

Subjects

Agronomy and Crop Sciences Life Sciences, Life Sciences, Plant Sciences

Keywords

China, food security, rice production, yield gap, yield potential

Dates

Published: 2018-08-29 15:36

Older Versions
License

GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 2.1

Add a Comment

You must log in to post a comment.


Comments

There are no comments or no comments have been made public for this article.