From Progress to Transformation: A Systems-Based Index for Measuring Agrifood Systems Transformation

John Mususa Ulimwengu 

This paper introduces the Agrifood Systems Transformation Index (AFSTI), a systems-based framework for measuring agrifood systems transformation as a multidimensional, goaloriented, and interdependent process. Existing measurement approaches often fail to capture the systemic nature of transformation, relying on fragmented indicators or additive aggregation methods that mask imbalance across key dimensions. The AFSTI addresses these limitations by combining distance-to-target normalization, arithmetic and geometric aggregation, and an adjacency-matrix approach to model interactions among system components. Using data from the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, the paper illustrates how the index captures not only the level of progress, but also its balance, coherence, and interaction effects across pillars such as productivity, investment, nutrition, inclusion, resilience, and governance. The results show that agrifood systems transformation is moderate but uneven across countries, and that accounting for imbalance and interdependence materially alters performance assessments. By distinguishing between progress and transformation, the AFSTI provides a more analytically rigorous and policyrelevant tool for monitoring agrifood systems change.