Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification

Jenny Bjordal , Evelien van Dijk, Henri Cornec, Anthony Alan Smith, Jr., Trude Storelvmo

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system's response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the regional distribution of economic impacts has received less attention. In this study, we use NorESM2-DIAM---an Earth System Model coupled to a high-resolution integrated assessment model---to assess the economic impacts, measured in GDP per capita, in an idealised SRM scenario where incoming solar radiation is reduced by 1\%. Our results suggest that, relative to a baseline without SRM, most countries experience economic gains under SRM, with only a few countries facing negative impacts. Low-income countries tend to see the largest benefits, reducing global economic inequality relative to the baseline. However, reduced damages and lower inequality are accompanied by higher emissions under SRM, potentially leading to additional adverse effects not captured here. These findings highlight potential trade-offs between economic benefits, reduced inequality, and increased emissions relevant for SRM governance.