Species specific mangrove habitat suitability and scenario dependent blue carbon modeling under uncertainty in Soc Trang Province, Vietnam

Manh-Dung Vu , Hoang-Minh Cong To, Harvey Hoang-Anh Ly, Thanh-Cong To, Ming-Che Hu

This study develops an integrated framework for species specific mangrove habitat suitability and scenario dependent blue carbon planning in Soc Trang Province, Vietnam. The spatial model translates ecological zonation evidence for 11 mangrove taxa into local rules based on coastal distance and elevation, then tests those rules across 19 spatial scenarios. The carbon model carries the resulting group level suitable areas into a simplified Tier 2 assessment with conservative, central, and high parameter settings for sequestration and stock terms. Under the RF1 baseline, cumulative group level suitable area reached 47,997.312 ha. Avicennia spp. represented 15,752.821 ha, or 32.8% of the RF1 opportunity space, while Sonneratia spp., the Rhizophora group, the Interior upper complex, and the Brackish freshwater complex contributed 19.3%, 14.1%, 16.7%, and 17.0%, respectively. The RF1 central carbon outcome was 22.09 million t CO2e over 30 years, with a conservative to high range of 18.83 to 25.27 million t CO2e. Across all scenarios, central carbon outcomes ranged from 16.40 million t CO2e in RF4 to 23.38 million t CO2e in SC1. These results show that the framework is not merely a mapping exercise. It identifies where ecological opportunity is robust, where carbon outcomes are sensitive to spatial assumptions, and why credit style interpretation must remain separate from planning level blue carbon screening.