Intensifying Seismicity beneath Mount Teide: Assessing the Probability of an Imminent Eruption on Tenerife

Valentin Rudolf Troll, Juan Carlos Carracedo, Stavros Meletlidis, Vicente Soler

Recent seismic swarms in the western sector of the Las Cañadas Caldera (Tenerife, Canary Islands) have raised concerns regarding the potential for renewed eruptive activity at Teide. Although the earthquakes were of small magnitude and occurred at depths of around 6-12 km, their detection and media coverage generated public concern on an island visited by millions of tourists each year. Teide forms part of the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex, located within the Las Cañadas Caldera. According to the national agency responsible for volcanic monitoring and early warning in Spain, the Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN), numerous small earthquakes have been recorded at depths of around 10 km beneath the central part of the island. Seismic swarms at such depths are relatively common in volcanic regions and usually reflect stress adjustments within the crust or the movement of fluids rather than magma ascent toward the surface. The absence of clear precursory signals indicates that the current seismicity represents typical volcanic unrest rather than an imminent eruption, highlighting the importance of clear communication of monitoring data in regions where active volcanoes coexist with dense populations and major tourist activity.