A research roadmap for assessing the feasibility of warming Mars

Edwin S Kite, Ari Essunfeld, Michael H Hecht, Michael A Mischna, Robin Wordsworth, Hooman Mohseni, Adam Boies, Nils Averesch, Samaneh Ansari, Mark I Richardson, Erika A DeBenedictis, Devon Stork, Abdul L Bamba, Casey J Handmer, Cyprien Jourdain, Ramses Ramirez, Christopher E Mason, Alexandre Kling, Ashwin S Braude, Adrian Dumitrescu, S. Pete Worden, John Cumbers, Nina Lanza, Rafid Quayum, Charles Cockell

This roadmap outlines research pathways to determine whether Mars could be warmed withnon-biological methods. It does not presuppose that warming Mars is desirable; its purposeis to identify what would need to be true for Mars to be warmed, what it would cost, and whatcould go wrong. Three complementary research tracks appear promising. Solid-stategreenhouse membranes offer local warming, aiding water harvesting, food production, andoxygen supply near human bases. Orbiting reflectors can warm key sites such as bases andCO2-ice reservoirs, although a large combined area would be required. Strengthening Mars’natural greenhouse effect might warm large regions or the globe, although many aspectsremain to be worked out. Each approach carries scientific and technical risks that researchmust address. Near-term priorities are on-Earth testing of key parameters that will determinewhether engineered aerosol warming is realistically possible, assessing whether exponentialproduction of bioplastic habitats is possible, and designing at-Mars process experiments. Inthe near term, the research proposed here is closely aligned with and supports research neededto understand Mars’ atmosphere and volatile evolution and hazards to human explorers. Themain external uncertainty is whether or not launch costs continue to fall. This is early-stageresearch, and we discuss key near-term decision points, alternative pathways, and payoffs ifresearch outcomes are negative. We also outline build-out pathways if research succeeds anddemand exists. Relatively modest research investments would keep open the option ofextending life beyond Earth as Mars’ scientific exploration continues.