Unequal weather exposure across teams and groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup: an event-based analysis using hourly reanalysis

Dimitri Defrance , Davide Faranda, Paquito Bernard, Tegwen Gadais

The connection between climate change and sports is evident, as sports contribute to environmental challenges, while climate change impacts the conditions for playing, organizing, and enjoying sports. In professional football, heat, humidity, rain, wind, and insufficient recovery time at night can influence player health, physical stress, and game performance. Evaluations of the 2026 FIFA World Cup have pointed out significant environmental risks in host cities, especially concerning heat stress, but these assessments are focused on specific locations. This research examines whether the environmental exposure during the 2026 FIFA World Cup is unevenly distributed due to the interaction between climate conditions and the tournament's schedule. We propose an event-based framework where each match is evaluated based on venue, date, and local kick-off time. Hourly ERA5-Land and ERA5 data are used to calculate probabilities of exceeding thresholds for heat stress, rainfall, wind gusts, and night-time recovery constraints, assessed through tropical nights. For each match, conditions are assessed within a timeframe starting one hour before and ending two hours after kick-off, combined with two-days calendar window, resulting in 75 sampled events per match for each 15-year period. Comparing 1996–2010 and 2011–2025 reveals that exposure varies across matches, groups, and teams. Heat stress is most pronounced, particularly for afternoon games in southern and inland locations, while rain, wind, and tropical nights exhibit unique spatial and temporal patterns. Thus, environmental exposure is not just a backdrop for outdoor football but an emerging aspect of mega-event planning, affecting tournament fairness, sports management, and climate adaptation.