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The impact of earthquake cycle variability on neotectonic and paleoseismic slip rate estimates

The impact of earthquake cycle variability on neotectonic and paleoseismic slip rate estimates

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. The published version of this Preprint is available: https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2018-40. This is version 1 of this Preprint.

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Authors

Richard Styron

Abstract

Because of the natural variability (aleatoric uncertainty) in earthquake recurrence intervals and coseismic displacements on a fault, cumulative slip on a fault does not increase linearly or perfectly step-wise with time; instead, some amount of variability in shorter-term slip rates results. Though this variability could greatly affect the accuracy of neotectonic (i.e., late Quaternary) and paleoseismic slip rate estimates, these effects have not been quantified. In this study, idealized faults with four different, representative earthquake recurrence distributions are created with equal mean recurrence intervals (1,000 years) and coseismic ...  more

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/zc6aj

Subjects

Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

faulting, Tectonics, Fault, seismic hazard, slip rate, statistical seismology

Dates

Published: 2018-05-29 08:07

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International