Beyond Techno-Centered Decarbonization Roadmaps: Designing Demand-Side Pathways for Sustainable Mobility

Gabriel Magnaval, Soline Corre , Maël Mouhoub, Manuele Margni, Anne-Marie Boulay

Decarbonization roadmaps for the automobile sector predominantly rely on supply-side improvements and electrification, yet their ability to deliver the required environmental reductions remains uncertain. This study introduces the Demand-Side Decomposition Analysis framework, which consistently integrates demand-side mitigation into a parametrized life cycle assessment of the automobile value chain and links environmental impacts with decent living standards to identify pathways compatible with both environmental limits and basic social needs. Applied to Swiss terrestrial mobility, this novel framework shows that current technology-centered roadmaps fail to simultaneously meet climate targets and copper supply constraints. Achieving these objectives requires coordinated activation of all demand-side levers, including reducing travel demand, shifting transport modes, and improving vehicle intensities. Substantial reductions in motorized travel distance and vehicle size, alongside high electrification rates, are necessary. These findings call for repositioning demand-side mitigation at the core of ecological transition pathways, with supply-side improvements acting as enabling supports.