Transforming Biodiversity Governance through Diversifying Values of Nature in Scenarios and Models

HyeJin Kim, Bernd Lenzner, Patrick A. Walkden, Neil Burgess, William W.L. Cheung, Simon Ferrier, Philip N. Raymond, Derek Tittensor

• Improved use of scenarios and models that incorporate diverse values of nature can contribute to the achievement of the Global Biodiversity Framework through more systemic approaches (e.g., causality frameworks, detection and attribution) and evidence-based methods (e.g., integrated use of data, scenarios, and model-based indicators in designing and evaluating pathways towards achievement of the GBF).


• Scenarios play critical roles in both global and national biodiversity governance and assessment processes. Qualitative narrative development can facilitate inclusive governance, while quantitative assessment can strengthen evidence-based decisions.


• Models can support detection and attribution of biodiversity changes, especially in combination with fine-scale monitoring data of biodiversity and drivers of change. Where feasible and appropriate, biodiversity-centric modelling frameworks should be developed that incorporate key drivers and interventions with cross-sectoral policy to improve outcomes for nature and people.


• The Nature Futures Framework supports building positive futures for nature through a diverse set of perspectives on its nature and with causality-informed monitoring, assessment, and forecasting for scalable indicators, policy and spatial planning, and evidence generation.


• At the global level, collaborative capacity-building approaches (e.g., modellers networks) are needed to respond to evolving societal needs, including the financial sector that demands climate- and nature-related risk assessment and proactive mitigation/prevention.


• At the national level, governments need to coordinate and improve coherence across monitoring, modelling, indicator, and scenario programs, convening stakeholders to co-identify key questions, co-develop scenarios, and employ causality framework-based models that link to indicators used in key policy processes.


• Whole-of-society transformation requires engaging diverse agencies of change across scales and sectors. Improved coordination of science, policy and practice enhances resource and conservation efficacy.