Integrative Biodiversity Science Informing Transformative Multiscale Governance through Diversifying Values of Nature in Scenarios and Models

HyeJin Kim, Bernd Lenzner, Patrick A. Walkden

• Improved use of scenarios and models can contribute to enhancing the achievement of the Global
Biodiversity Framework through more systemic approaches (e.g., causality frameworks, detection
and attribution) and evidence-based methods (e.g., integrated use of data, scenarios, and model-
based indicators) that incorporate diverse values of nature.
• Scenarios play critical roles in both global and national biodiversity governance and assessment
processes. Qualitative narrative development can enable inclusive governance, while quantitative
assessment can strengthen evidence-based decisions.
• Models can strengthen evidence through detection and attribution capabilities using ecological
monitoring data at fine scales. Where feasible and appropriate, biodiversity-centric modeling
frameworks should be developed that incorporate key drivers and interventions to improve
biodiversity conservation with cross-sectoral policy coherence.
• Nature Futures Framework supports building futures through the human-nature relationship lens
and with causality-informed monitoring, assessment, and forecasting for scalable indicators,
policy and spatial planning, and evidence generation.
• At the global level, collaborative capacity-building approaches (e.g., model networks) are needed
to respond to evolving societal needs, also considering the financial sector that demand climate
and nature-related risk assessment and proactive mitigation/prevention.
• At the national level, governments need to coordinate and improve coherence across monitoring,
modeling, indicator, and scenario programs, convening stakeholders to co-identify key questions,
co-develop scenarios, and employ causality framework-based models that link to indicators used
in key policy processes.
• Whole-of-society transformation requires engaging diverse agencies of change across scales and
sectors. Improved coordination of science, policy and practice enhances resource efficiency and
conservation efficacy.