Simulations of Minnesota water budget components using the Soil-Water-Balance model, past (1981–2022) and future (2040–59 and 2080–99)

Jared Trost , Martha G Nielsen, Stephen M Westenbroek, Stefan Liess, Bojan Milinic, Samuel Potter, Ryan R Noe, Tracy E Twine, Heidi A Roop

This study presents historical estimates and future projections of net infiltration (potential recharge), actual evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff, and related water budget components across Minnesota using the USGS Soil Water Balance model, version 2 (SWB). The model was calibrated to streamflow and actual ET observations from 2000–2022, achieving an overall r² of 0.973 with a standard error of 0.002 inches per year (in/yr). Two primary sets of simulations were produced. First, historical water budget components for 1981–2022 were estimated using observed daily PRISM weather data. During this period, Minnesota’s mean annual precipitation was 28.5 in/yr. The calibrated SWB model simulated mean annual actual ET of 21.6 in/yr, mean annual surface runoff of 3.0 in/yr, and mean annual net infiltration of 4.0 in/yr for Minnesota. Second, water budget component projections were simulated for 1995–2014, 2040–59, and 2080–99 using 4 kilometer, dynamically downscaled climate models representing intermediate, high, and very high emissions scenarios. All future climate models showed warming relative to the historical period, leading to consistent responses in temperature‑sensitive components on an annual basis: less snowfall and snowmelt and higher reference ET. Seasonal shifts were also apparent, with most models projecting increases in winter precipitation, actual ET, runoff, and net infiltration, and decreases in summer and fall precipitation, actual ET, and net infiltration relative to the historical period. The accompanying data products are intended for estimating multi-year mean water budget components at spatial scales no smaller than the smallest watershed included in model calibration (about 20 square miles). These updated historical estimates and future projections provide decision relevant information for water resource managers and offer a framework for developing long range projections of water budget variables.