Dress Rehearsal: 2023 El Niño Anticipatory Action Somalia, in the Shadow of 1997

David MacLeod , Maurine Ambani, Richard Graham, Suleiman Hassan, Dorothy Heinrich, Catalina Jaime, Christopher Jack, Ahmad Kazouini, Lynn Morris, Miles Murray, Paolo Paron, Laura Swift, Elisabeth Stephens, Andy Wheatley

In 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding driven by El Niño and a positiveIn 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding driven by El Niño and a positiveIn 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding driven by El Niño and a positiveIn 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding driven by El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. 188 flood-related deaths occurred; 90% fewer than 1997, the last time similar climatic conditions were seen. Here we reflect on the role AA played in reducing mortality. While we document significant progress in forecasting, early warning and early action, we also note that exposure to extreme rainfall was substantially lower than in 1997 - and thus cannot confidently attribute the lower mortality to AA. Thus whilst 2023 was an AA milestone to be celebrated, it is a dress rehearsal for the threat posed by 1997-level rainfall, an event made more likely with climate change. With a strong El Niño forecast in 2026, building on 2023 is critical; we make recommendations here.